Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +21.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.6 +.9
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 62.5% of Issues Advancing, 34.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.84 +31.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$65.5M
  
• 246 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 62.9% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 73.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.5 -1.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.5 -.06%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,105.6 -.66%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 74.0 (Greed) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.2 -23.8%
  
• Vix 14.6 +1.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -15.8%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5 to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.25 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 66.0 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 114.4 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.6 +1.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.5 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.24%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.4 -1.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .41 -9.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.9 +.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.5 -.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 +.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.6 -7.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 -8.0
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -14.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.27 +18.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$304.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 298.0 -1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 287 +6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.2 -2.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 196.2 -5.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.8 -.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.8 -.72%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 121.1 +.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 147.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 827.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 63.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.9 -.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.1 -7.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.4 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(494 of 500 reporting) +7.9% +.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.60 +.07:  Growth Rate +11.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +57.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.75 +.12: Growth Rate +31.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.6 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.03 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .92 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -42.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.5% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 57.7% -1.1 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.72% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 76.3%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 55.7%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +52 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/transport/biotech/consumer discetionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -.5% 2) Airlines -.2% 3) REITs -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VET, CWAN, SLNO, STVN, CRGY, ANF, CCOI, GPCR, PSFE, HPK, CIEN, HDSN, VKTX, VSCO, MEI and SWIN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VSCO 2) EOSE 3) HPE 4) XEL 5) BURL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VSCO 2) CDMO 3) LUXH 4) BIVI 5) CMI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +3.7% 2) Digital Health +2.8% 3) Homebuilding +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OSPN, RTO, KRO, CC, ARHS, AGR, OPRA, TNDM, ASX, IONQ, CRGX, NVO, KR, PHUN, DV, BURL, BJ, PRGO, IMNM, TSM, ARCB, QCOM, SHAK, PHR, NVEI, SHAK, SILK, SA, MUR, MU, CMPS, PAAS, DLO, SKYT, PLTR and WCC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TRTX 2) FOXA 3) MNMD 4) SPHR 5) KR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OSPN 2) HNST 3) BYRN 4) BJ 5) BURL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AQN)/.14
• (CRMT)/-1.09
• (GCO)/2.97
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Feb. is estimated to fall to 200K versus 353K in Jan.
• The Unemployment Rate for Feb. is estimated at 3.7% versus 3.7% in Jan.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking and the Alzheimer/Parkinson Diseases Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST