Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -19.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.4 +1.0
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 35.2% of Issues Advancing, 62.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.78 +50.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$39.8M
  
• 185 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 63.0% (-.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 69.0 -5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.5 -1.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.1 -.39%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,177.6 +.21%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 72.0 (Greed) -4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.9 -16.3%
  
• Vix 13.0 +.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 -1.0%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.75 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 67.0 -3.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.94%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 -.14%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.3 +1.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 -.05%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.24%

• S&P 500 futures +.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.0 -.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .76 +59.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.2 -.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.7 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.9 -4.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 144.0 +41.0
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -5.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.42 +73.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$145.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.9 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 276.3 -2.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 288 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.4 -3.6%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 187.27 -2.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 127.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.8 -3.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 166.5 -2.6%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 119.96 -1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 -.16%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 142.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 787.0 -16.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.4%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.4 euros/megawatt-hour -4.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.8 +7.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -13.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.5 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 500 reporting) +50.8% +34.3 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 249.32 +.11:  Growth Rate +11.7% unch., P/E 21.1 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.73 +.28: Growth Rate +29.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.7
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.18 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -36.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.1% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 57.9% +2.5 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 69.6%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 49.7%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +40 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +272 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/transport/tech/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -.9% 2) Telecom -.5% 3) Restaurants -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SHC, PZZA, CHWY, DRI, ASO, FDS, TBBK, SCS, DBI, FIVE and TRML
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWG 2) GOEV 3) ACN 4) DWAC 5) FUSN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APYX 2) CATO 3) DBI 4) LI 5) AAPL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +6.6% 2) Semis +3.7% 3) Homebuilding +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GES, MU, GPCR, ARGX, FND, MSTR, GCT, AVGO, WOLF, RH, TILE, WDC, SGH, IMVT, RKT, WGO, LYFT, HRTG, SKYT, CLS, ARRY, VRT, ARHS, COIN, CDLX, ACMR, LNC, CMC, IOT, DBRG, BROS, GPS, OLLI, WSM, LRCX, GEO, Z, KMX, GTLB, ZG, GS, DHT, FAF, BMA, SIMO, DUOL, SNPS, DFH, BCC, HOOD, LNW, ONON, WAL, ATMU, MRVL, YPF, TNP, HAYW, BNTX, FRO, NBIX, NDAQ, APPN, DKNG, LOW, WOR, EURN, VST, RUN, MELI, DELL, EURN, KKR and PD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) OPK 2) EGY 3) FUSN 4) STWD 5) JCI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KAVL 2) GES 3) MU 4) ALAB 5) SCVL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US government funding deadline and the (AFRM) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST