Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Rotation, Short-Covering, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -3.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .38 +13.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.8 +1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.8 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.4 +1.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.6 +2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 -32.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 unch.

• NYSE Arms .92 -13.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$325.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.2 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 284.4 +.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 286 +2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.1 -1.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 188.2 -.25%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.4 +.04%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 169.2 -.41%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 117.6 +.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.3%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 785.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.7 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.8 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.7 +.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +47.7% +7.5 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.04 +.19:  Growth Rate +12.0% unch., P/E 20.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.64 +.29: Growth Rate +29.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 -.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.11 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.05 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.1% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 56.7% +.7 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 63.5%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 48.1%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -332 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +270 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/industrial/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -1.2% 2) Computer Hardware -1.0% 3) Internet -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DKNG, DNUT and GME
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CRBG 2) DJT 3) DKNG 4) GME 5) RDDT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GME 2) LUXH 3) COIN 4) NIO 5) SYRS
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) IBB 3) XLU 4) XLP 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.5% 2) Gold & Silver +3.1% 3) Regional Banks +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• STOK, NVCR, NCNO, DJT, FNA, RUN, CMP, SMTC, DYN, RGLD, ROIV, ENPH, CTAS, ALB, TTEC, JKS, CDLX, FSLR, NCLH, GOOS, ITOS, EH, MRVL, AGI, W, SPHR, CSIQ, SHLS, BILI, MRK, CBRL, PAR, HOOD, MED, BHC, ABR, CNXC, IFF, JD, RNA, DB, AMRK, FIVE, CNX, CEIX, MDT, GE and GOLD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DNUT 2) CRK 3) SMTC 4) FROG 5) DJT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OUST 2) MRK 3) NCNO 4) CTAS 5) STOK

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) FTEC 3) XLK 4) PTF 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (WBA)/.82

After the Close: 

• (OXM)/1.95
• (SMTC)/-.04

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 4Q GDP Anuualized QoQ is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a prior estimate of a +3.2% gain.
• 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a prior estimate of a +3.0% gain.
• 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a prior estimate of a +1.6% gain.
• 4Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a prior estimate of a +2.1% gain.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 212K versus 210K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1815K versus 1807K prior.

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for March is estimated to rise to 46.0 versus 44.0 in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a -4.9% decline in Jan.
• Univ. of Mich. Final Consumer Sentiment readings for March.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to fall to -5 versus -4 in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (ODFL) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, HC Wainwright Autoimmune/Inflammatory Disease Conference and the (JEF) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.0 -2.3
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 74.0% of Issues Advancing, 23.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.36 +26.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$285.6M
  
• 137 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
• 62.7% (+4.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.1 +.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.4 -.15%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,974.4 -.97%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 68.0 (Greed) -2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.0 -12.0%
  
• Vix 13.3 +.2%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.03 +3.0%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Emerging Currencies Trim Losses As Traders Digest Rate Decisions.
• Yuan Traders Stumped as China’s Key Daily Signal Clouds Over.
• Not Even High Mortgage Rates Make It Worth Renting London Houses. 
• Asian Stocks Tick Higher After Wall Street Decline.
• Oil Declines as Industry Report Shows Sizable US Stockpile Build.
• Baltimore Bridge Collapse Will Likely Block Coal Exports for Weeks.
• US Regional Banks Challenged by Commercial Property, S&P Says.
• Retail Investors Host Meme Stock Party In Face of High Rates.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zerohedge:

• A "Black Swan Event" - General Flynn Raises Questions About Baltimore Bridge Collapse.
• "We Need Somebody Disruptive": Alex Jones, Former Bush Official Clash In Trump ZeroHedge Debate.
• Home-Flipping Plummets As Profits Slump.
• Florida Bans Social Media For Minors Under 14.
• Gen Z Males Are Rejecting Feminist-Friendly Ideologies.
• 'Serious Concerns' Raised About NY Judge's Trump Judgment.
• Taiwan Conducts Drills Deploying US Patriot Systems In Face Of Chinese Intrusions.
• The State Of The Media's Double Standard.
• Pump-Prices To Hit $4 A Gallon As "Real Sleeper Risk" For Oil Market Looms.
• US stocks were pressured heading into the close after a choppy session amid mixed data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "The Squad" Earmarked $224 Million Since 2023 – Led By AOC, It's Pork Barrel Spending By The Democratic Socialists.
• State Farm Insurance Drops 72,000 California Properties.
• The Predictable 2024 Biden Non-Campaign.
• WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Large Crude Build.
• Global CBDC Rollout Continues Apace.
• Stocks and bonds chop while bitcoin drops - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The Canaries In America's Coal Mine.
• Stocks Drop As 'Soft' Data Slumps, Trump's 'Wealth' Pumps'n'Dumps.

CNBC.com:

• Logistics companies scramble after bridge collapse closes Port of Baltimore until further notice.
• As cookies disappear, data collaboration is key for marketers. Here’s why.
• Cocoa is soaring to records. What it means for consumers and why ‘the worst is still yet to come’.
• Adam Neumann’s bid to buy back WeWork faces uphill battle due to financing challenges.
• Trump Media stock jumps as much as 50% after DJT ticker debut.
• FDA approves Merck’s drug for rare, deadly lung condition.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: GameStop, Concentrix and more.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Logistics expert weighs supply chain impact of Baltimore bridge collapse.
• CSX's stock falls as shipper works around delays caused by Key Bridge collapse.
• GameStop shares slide on top- and bottom-line misses for fourth quarter.
• CPI inflation will almost surely be above 3% well into midyear, Garda’s Magnusson says.
• Microsoft is already bigger than Apple, but its ‘iPhone moment’ could be coming.

Newsmax:

• Rasmussen Poll Is Red Flag for Biden, Seen as a Weak Military Leader.
• Sen. Blackburn: Illegal Crossings Shift to Ariz.
• Mo. AG: DEI Has No Place in Public Institutions.

Fox News:

• Coast Guard suspends search for construction workers missing after bridge collapse.
• Sean 'Diddy' Combs breaks silence after federal agents raid his homes.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• EXCLUSIVE: Newsome and Bergquam Expose the Terror of Lawless Illegals at Chicago Migrant Facility – FOIA Reveals Battery, Assault, Burglary, Domestic Battery, Criminal Sexual Abuse, Child Abuse, Stabbings at ONE SINGLE FACILITY.
• BREAKING: Far-Left NY Judge Overseeing Stormy Daniels ‘Hush Money’ Trial Hits Trump with Gag Order.
• Kamala Harris Poses at School Shooting Memorial to Push Gun Control – Then Victim’s Dad Calls Her Out.
• Rapper Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Says He’s Victim of ‘Witch Hunt’ After Feds Raid His Homes, Handcuff His Sons in Connection with Sex-Trafficking Investigation.
• “Wow! She Hung Up!” – Karine Jean-Pierre Hangs Up on North Carolina Radio Host After Being Confronted About Biden’s Obvious Dementia and Bad Economy (AUDIO).
• BREAKING UPDATE: NBC FIRES Ronna McDaniel Following On-Air Attack From Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and Others.
• The Tractor Revolution Is Back in Brussels – Protesting Farmers Again Besiege the EU Headquarters and Spray the Police With Manure (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden’s America: Illegal Alien Murders Grand Rapids Woman, Dumps Her Body on Side of Road.
• Billionaire’s Wife Mocks Small Community After Locals Raise Questions About Her Major Land Purchases.
• Peter Sweden: New mRNA Side Effect: “Safe and Effective” was a LIE.
• UPDATE: Cargo Ship Lost Its Lights and Steered into Bridge Support Before Taking Down Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge (VIDEO).
• Report: Prince Harry Named in Diddy Sex Trafficking Lawsuit.
• Watch: Republican Gives Fiery Speech as Party Leadership Stabs Americans in the Back – ‘Beginning of the End’.

X:

• @elonmusk 

• Fake news that’s truer than the “real” news. (video)

• @TuckerCarlson

• Ep. 84 Tulsi Gabbard could be the next vice president. Here’s what she believes. (video)

• @JesseBWatters

• A whistleblower is sounding the alarm that the CIA blocked the feds from interviewing Hunter Biden’s “sugar brother” during the five-year probe into his tax crimes... why? The deep state has a dirty history reaching back decades to the JFK presidency and Primetime has the analysis you've probably never heard of. (video)

• @Resist_CBDC

• Green Energy is not supposed to work. BREAKING: Hail storm in Damon texas on 3/24/24 destroys 1,000’s of acres of solar farms. Who pays to fix this green energy? (video)
  

• @wideawake_media

• The Irish are taking to the streets in huge numbers, in protest against globalist mass immigration policies that are deliberately attempting to undermine their national identity. If anyone is going to spark the powder keg that ignites the rest of the Western world in opposition to globalism, it'll be the Irish. (video)
• Interviewer: "A new study shows the world's richest 1% account for more carbon emissions than the poorest 66%." Bill Gates: "I spend about 9 million a year buying sustainable aviation fuel, to cancel out my footprint." Make no mistake: The entire "CO2 will lead to climate apocalypse" narrative is just a pretext for globalist so-called "elites" to restrict YOUR freedom, prosperity, mobility and standard of living, while continuing to enjoy all those things in abundance for themselves—under the guise of "saving the planet". (video)

• @KamVTV
  

• In 2021, DHS Secretary Mayorkas bragged on MSNBC about ending nearly all of Trump's immigration policies. Let this be a stark reminder the invasion at our southern border is intentional. (video)

• @KobeissiLetter 

• Issuances of US Treasuries are now at pandemic levels: We saw nearly $7 trillion in gross issuances of US Treasures in just 3 months during 2023. For the entire year of 2023, a whopping $23 TRILLION in US Treasuries were issued. US federal debt is rising by $1 trillion every 90 days right now. US government spending as a percentage of GDP is at World War 2 levels. Why are Treasury issuances and deficits at record levels if we are on track for a "soft landing?" (video)

• @MattWallace888

• BREAKING: Theories are circulating about Space Lasers & HAARP after another Carnival Cruise Ship CAUGHT ON FIRE. (video)
  

• @VigilantFox

• Elon Musk Warns ‘America Is Toast’ if Democrats Retain Power. Farzad posted a poll on 𝕏 with the caption: “I used to consider myself a Democrat. Now, I feel like the Democratic party is very bad, but I still consider myself Liberal. Anyone else?”
  @ElonMusk responded, “I voted 100% Dem until a few years ago. Now, I think we need a red wave, or America is toast.” Scott Adams, the creator of the comic strip “Dilbert,” recently echoed a similar sentiment. He said, “Trump is competing with a sitting government that is actively trying to hurt its own citizens in a variety of entirely obvious ways. You’d have to be in a coma to not pick up on the pattern.”

• @WallStreetApes 

• I’ve Been Blowing The Whistle On This For Months, The Electronic Ear Tag For Cattle Bill. VERY IMPORTANT. Not only do American farmers say this could put ALL small family farms out of business but Rep Thomas Massie says this is the first step to BANNING cattle. (video)
• NEW: Chick-fil-A Announcing They Are Going Back On Their Pledge Of ‘No Antibiotic In Chickens’. Tyson Foods & Chick-fil-A “Are reintroducing certain antibiotics to its chicken supply chain”. This in addition to Chick-fil-A having 50 chemicals being used, over 40 are manmade chemicals. (video)
• Here We Go. Washington State Inching Closer To Justifying Illegal Immigrants Voting In Our Elections By Qualifying Them For Professional Level Jobs. (video)
• CNN Shows Inside A Hacker Conference Where American Voting Machines Are Examined. Electronic Voting Machines “used in 18 different states, 8 of which are swing states” are able to be broken into within minutes without tools. “Now you have full admin access on this machine” (video)

• DiedSuddenly

• Bravo! Scotland County Republican Party in NC unanimously passes Medical Freedom and Individual Liberty resolution: The resolution also states that the WHO will not have jurisdiction in their county.

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• Dear Chemtrail Deniers, My 6 year old can understand this man’s explanation - why can’t you? You can even see it happening with your own eyes yet you still continue to deny reality itself. (video)
• Clip of Boat striking Baltimore Bridge Gantry at 8x speed is truly insane. What do you notice? (video)
• Baltimore Bridge. Holy crap. Let’s see what all the Engineers have to say about this then….Why would there be flames - surely metal & concrete don’t spontaneously combust - obviously there would be sparks via friction?
• Communist China in Practice. The facial recognition cameras in this workplace start ticking the clock the second this worker leaves her desk. The time away is ultimately deducted from her Communist pay packet. This is where the entire West is heading. Do you want this? (video)
• Bridge Collapses. Planes falling apart. Insanely huge suspicious fires. Series of train derailments. Chemical substance explosions. Food production facilities being burnt down, planes crashing into them. Thousands of mysteriously dead cattle. New York Underground network of tunnels. Southern border insanity. These are just a few things that have happened across America just in the last year. People get angry for questioning such events - but if you believe they are all truly authentic then at this point you are simply asleep, naive, ignorant or just stupid.
  

• @TheChiefNerd
  

• 'Lab-Grown' Meat Made Inside Bioreactors Is Now Being Tested at Restaurants in the U.S. (video)
  

• @Laralogan

• Multiple intel sources: Baltimore bridge collapse was an “absolutely brilliant strategic attack” on US critical infrastructure - most likely cyber - & our intel agencies know it. In information warfare terms, they just divided the US along the Mason Dixon line exactly like the Civil War. Second busiest strategic roadway in the nation for hazardous material now down for 4-5 years - which is how long they say it will take to recover.

• @ASMedia-Bharat

• This is the actual footage #baltimorebridge & the real #BaltimoreBridgeCollapse. All passanger in the ship were #Indian . This may be act of terrorism. (video)
  

• @UltraDane

• Maui, Hawaii, USA, March 2024: As Joe Biden continues to do NOTHING about Lahaina, the (deceased) Dianne Feinstein gets $1.1 billion in 256 different earmarks of OUR tax dollars. (video)

• @BamBKB
  

• Former Premier of Alberta, Jason Kenney ADMITS that the Great Reset is NOT a conspiracy theory. He claims that, Justin Trudeau is a part of it : “The great reset is NOT a conspiracy theory - It’s a set of proposals being advocated by some very influential people, INCLUDING PRIME MINSTER, JUSTIN TRUDEAU.” (video)
  

• @WallStreetSilv

• China's all-seeing skynet now has more than 700 million CCTV cameras (half of the world total), and it's real-time spying on all of its 1.4 billion citizens to give them a personal social credit score, based on how they behave. Are you ready for this in Europe and the USA? (video)
• Can anyone explain why? Why do they need to insert mRNA into the food supply? Are there any brands yet that will confirm that their ham or bacon is NOT using any experimental mRNA drugs in their pigs? I don't want any mRNA at all in our food and will pay to avoid it.

• @IMmeme0

• BREAKING: This massive caravan is currently on its way to invade the U.S. border. We've grown so desensitized to the invasion that many of you will probably not react to this video and this is precisely what the regime desires. (video)

• @MJTurthUltra

• UPDATE: Mitch McConnell’s Sister in Law’s Death - She was on the Phone for 8 Minutes while her Tesla Vehicle was Submerged Context: They said the toxicology test found she had a blood alcohol concentration level of 0.233g per 100ml. Ok… fine. If they say so. What I found strange was what was in the Blanco County Sheriff's Office Police Report, which the MSM is leaving out.
  

•  @TonyClimate

• Arctic sea ice extent in nearly identical to this date in 1996. (pic)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,007,636 Reports(+4,460 from prior report) Through February 23rd, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 71.0 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.4 +4.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%

• S&P 500 futures +.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.