Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (RBC)/2.34

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for April is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.3% decline in March.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports, National Restaurant Assoc. Conference, (BA) annual meeting, (FIX) annual meeting, (JBLU) annual meeting, (KRYS) annual meeting and the (ICE) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 24.1 +9.9
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 45.4% of Issues Advancing, 51.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .93 -52.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$72.3M
  
• 158 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 64.0% (+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 70.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.3 -1.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.1 -.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,224.4 -.11%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (Greed) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.4 -5.7%
  
• Vix 12.5 +.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .71 -18.4%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.5 -4.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.0 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 114.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.92 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.3 +.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.8 +.17%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.7 -5.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .60 +43.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.3 -3.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.0 -.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.9 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.4 -9.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 162.0 +31.0
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -2.3%

• NYSE Arms 2.50 +236.4%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$124.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.3 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 261.7 -.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 287 -4
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.2 -2.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 171.1 -4.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.7 -.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.9 -2.6%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 128.9 -.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.73 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 134.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 743.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 59.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.7 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.2 -2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.3 +.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.3 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(460 of 500 reporting) +5.5% +.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.63 +.13:  Growth Rate +14.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 326.89 +.43: Growth Rate +36.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.7 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .97 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.8% -40.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.3% +3.8 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.39% -11.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 65.1%(-7.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 52.7%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +265 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +64 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +107 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/biotech/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -1.9% 2) Retail -1.6% 3) Airlines -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CART, ARCO, PBR/A, NVAX, PBH, TRUP, NFE, OKLO, STVN,  and GME
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NFE 2) BB 3) MNDY 4) KMX 5) GOOS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ASTS 2) BA 3) DLO 4) AGL 5) SHLS
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLU 3) XLF 4) XLE 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +4.7% 2) Computer Hardware +3.5% 3) Semis +2.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MNDY, INO, PLRX, SMCI, INOD, FOUR, DELL, LSEA, CLSK, NXT, NVRO, SRAD, CLS, ITOS, NTGR, STRL, URGN, CAMT, QTRX, IOT, DHI, MMYT, TOL, TPC, ARGX, BBAR, AZEK, MKTX, MTRX, KBH, EYE, ITGR, IDXX, BROS, GATO, PHM, FLUT, JLL, PRCT, TME, ZETA, TER, BLBD, ERJ, PSTG, CRH, NVCR, AZPN, BBVA, ACLX, QCOM, CDNS, WAFD, SN, AHR and PAAS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FFIE 2) MCHI 3) ZI 4) GSK 5) VSTS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FFIE 2) SINT 3) MNDY 4) RSKD 5) DELL
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) IGV 3) VDE 4) KBE 5) XHB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume