Tuesday, June 04, 2024

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @newstart_2024
  • @wideawake_media
  • @toobaffled
  •  @DrAseemMalhotra
  • @stillgray 
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • US Congress Is Getting FILTHY RICH Insider Trading. Democrat Rep “Chellie Pingree's net worth before joining politics was just $316,000. Just 4 years later, it spiked to $46 MILLION. She bought an island vacation house just for fun and flies on a private jet from her island to her job in Washington DC. It turns out that several politicians use under the table information to trade stocks. 
  • @CraigKellyPHON
  • THE FINAL NAIL IN THE VACCINE FANATICS COFFIN. Huge new Oxford study (30,000+ child) finds no benefit from Covid injections for children, but vaccinated children were more likely to need hospitalisation. The study found zero covid benefit for children injected with Covid vaccines in terms of; Ambulance & Emergency Attendance, Covid Hospitalisation, or Death. However, there was a 20% higher rate of all cause unplanned hospitalisations in children after the first injection (73/10,000) compared to vaccine free children (60/10,000) And after a second injection, the combined rates of children that needed hospitalisation that were vaccinated (110/10,000) were higher than the unvaccinated children (101/10,000). The only conclusion from this study is that for children, the Covid vaccines were UNSAFE, INEFFECTIVE & unnecessary - and caused harm.
  • @EndWokeness
  • @WarClandestine
  • @seanfeucht
  • @DougAMacgregor
  • @EUUSForum
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.1 +.6%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 -.41%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.34%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, REIT/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.3 +1.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .73 -42.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.4 -.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.0 -1.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.24 +.28%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.2 +6.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 -32.0
  • Total Put/Call .99 +12.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.71 +11.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$400.3M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.3 +1.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 270.5 +2.9%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 276 +14
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.7 +1.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.6 +1.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.1 -.87%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 165.39 +2.0%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 125.4 -.98%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.12%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 143.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 734.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 55.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 -.80%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.99%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.8 euros/megawatt-hour -6.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.8 -2.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.1 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.9 +1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(491 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 257.94 +.12:  Growth Rate +13.1% unch., P/E 20.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.87% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 329.87 +.16: Growth Rate +23.0% unch., P/E 31.4 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .97 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 unch.
  • US Yield Curve -43.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.8% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 49.1% +1.6 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.69% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 81.2%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 54.9%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -430 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +101 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -4.4% 2) Steel -2.3% 3) Alt Energy -2.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GME, VET, FERG, NXST, IFN, ETN, MRUS, NICE, CMRE, HUBB, VRT, NBR, ALV, AESI, NFE, FLNC, BBIO, CLCO, AX, MOD, HDB, IBN, VIST, SITE, VKTX, JANX, BBWI and CNM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NLY 2) BBWI 3) CVE 4) BAX 5) EWW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DBI 2) AX 3) CBUS 4) QDEL 5) SOND
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) VGT 2) XLI 3) VDE 4) VOX 5) XLY

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) REITS +1.3% 2) Restaurants +.6% 3) Utilities +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CCL, VRNA, TWST, CLSK, BOOT, CRNX, LEGN, ASAN, PWSC, OLMA, NEOG, WGS, SAIA, NSA, PLSE, FWRD, MARA, AGIO, GFL, ZLAB, CRNX and FMX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CORZ 2) MET 3) BSX 4) WB 5) GLBE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CORZ 2) SAIA 3) AGIO 4) MRIN 5) BOOT
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLV 2) XLU 3) XBI 4) XRT 5) IDU
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BF/B)/.41
  • (CPB)/.70
  • (DLTR)/1.43
  • (HIBB)/2.63
  • (OLLI)/2.65
  • (THO)/1.80
  • (UNFI)/.02
After the Close: 
  • (CHPT)/-.19
  • (FIVE)/.63
  • (LULU)/2.40
  • (SMTC)/.01
  • (VSCO)/.09
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for May is estimated to fall to 175K versus 192K in April.

9:45 am EST:

  • Final S&P Global PMI readings for May.

10:00 am EST

  • The ISM Services Index for May is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 49.4 in April.
  • The ISM Services Prices Paid for May is estimated to fall to 59.0 versus 59.2 in April.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,908,670 barrels versus a -4,156,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,087,330 barrels versus a +2,022,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,577,830 barrels versus a +2,544,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.05% versus a +2.6% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits 

  • (NVDA) 10-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (LNW) annual meeting, (ABNB) annual meeting, (AAL) annual meeting, (DDOG) annual meeting, (WMT) annual meeting, (URBN) annual meeting, (PCAR) investor meeting, Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference, Deutsche Bank Industrials/Materials/Building Products Conference, Baird Consumer/Tech/Services Conference and the BofA Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -10.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.2 +.6
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 36.0% of Issues Advancing, 61.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.74 +13.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$396.5M
  • 45 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
  • 57.4% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 45.0 -2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.5 -1.6%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 232.3 -.81%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,618.9 +.36%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 41.0 (FEAR) -8.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.3 +3.4%
  • Vix 13.7 +4.2%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +5.7%