Wednesday, June 05, 2024

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @libsoftiktok
  • @wideawake_media
  • @VigilantFox 
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @WarClandestine
  • @DrAseemMalhotra
  • @ImMeme0
  • @CollinRugg
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.0 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.3 +.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.4 -.31%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.42%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Construction Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -2.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .67 -33.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.1 -.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 185.5 +.7%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.2 -1.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.2 -6.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 127.0 +34.0
  • Total Put/Call .87 -8.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 -29.6%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$235.7M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.9 -1.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 271.6 +.35%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 293 +17
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.6 -.15%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.3 -.17%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.9 +1.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.4 -1.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 123.3 -1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 734.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 +3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 +.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.6 +4.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.5 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.8 -1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 258.09 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 330.17 +.30: Growth Rate +23.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.0 +.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .94 -7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -44.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.8% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.5% +2.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.69% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 81.2%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 58.7%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +455 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +101 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -.8% 2) Foods -.4% 3) Agriculture -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FIVE, CWH, CSTM, DLTR, FIVN, BF/B, MDGL, NICE and AMBC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MBLY 2) XLB 3) CORZ 4) HPE 5) X
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MNMD 2) PLUG 3) ATAI 4) VFS 5) RIOT
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) PSI 2) PKB 3) IGV 4) XLY 5) XRT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +4.1% 2) Computer Hardware +3.5% 3) Construction +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VRNT, NVAX, GWRE, VIR, GH, SG, ACLS, HPE, ACMR, TWST, CRWD, REVG, CYTK, MMYT, OLLI, AEHR, PTGX, BROS, VECO, GME, ESTA, WGS, ASML, FTRE, IMTX, ZIM, UPST, WING, BLBD, ASPN, TSM, MKSI, VRT, AKRO, NTES, ARM, AKRO, RMBS, DESP, AMSC, HDB, SBS, CEG, SMCI, AZTA, CELH, FSLR, OSCR, OSCR, CNM, ZS, MGNI, GFL, BBWI, WIX, CYBR, NOW, ILMN, YPF, QCOM, CLH, LEGN, AMD, ATHM, THC, LBTYA, NCLH, NBXG, CMRE and CIEN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SFIX 2) SBLK 3) VZIO 4) CRWD 5) HPE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WKME 2) VRNT 3) DDD 4) GWRE 5) VIR
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLU 2) XLV 3) XLI 4) XBI 5) SMH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABM)/.79
  • (BIG)-3.92
  • (CIEN)/.15
  • (GIII)/-.03
  • (SJM)/2.35
  • (TTC)/1.29
After the Close: 
  • (DOCU)/.79
  • (MTN)/10.00
  • (ZUMZ)/-1.14
  • (RH)/-.14
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for May.

8:30 am EST:

  • 1Q Productivity/Unit Labor Cost revisions.
  • The Trade Deficit for April is estimated to widen to -$76.5B versus -$69.4B in March.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 220K versus 219K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1790K versus 1791K prior.

Upcoming Splits 

  • (NVDA) 10-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q update, weekly Fed balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (NFLX) annual meeting, (TOST) annual meeting, (LYFT) investor day, (ASO) annual meeting, (TDW) annual meeting, (TT) annual meeting, (MOS) annual meeting, (EME) annual meeting, (FANG) annual meeting, (LULU) annual meeting, Baird Consumer Tech/Services Conference, BofA Tech Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, TD Financial Services/Fintech Summit and the Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -9.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 +1.0
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 61.9% of Issues Advancing, 36.5% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.17 -27.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$194.2M
  • 72 New 52-Week Highs, 41 New Lows
  • 57.1% (+2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.0 +5.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.2 -.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 233.4 +.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,907.7 +1.15%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (NEUTRAL) +4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.5 -10.6%
  • Vix 12.8 -2.6%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -10.5%