Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -1.2% 2) Foods -.9% 3) Steel -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MNST, GME, RBRK and TASK
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MTUM 2) INCY 3) WEN 4) WM 5) EWW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VRA 2) PETS 3) EXAI 4) SHCR 5) ASTS
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) XLC 4) ARKK 5) OIH

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +4.1% 2) Regional Banks +4.1% 3) Semis +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RNA, CASY, HUT, RTO, ORCL, ESI, ZG, Z, VRNA, BEAQM, ENVX, HIMS, SKY, CRSP, WAL, AMSC, SLG, AFRM, ARM, UPST, SWKS, MUSA, IREN, BRZE, RRX, OLED, ADSK, DXC, MKSI, NCNO, HAE, RKT, PLRX, AAPL, CRBP, SAP, INTU, CVNA, WHD, SIX, OSW, WBS, SLAB, ALTR, SLM, LECO, DNLI, SLM and INST
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MUB 2) ORCL 3) ZI 4) ITB 5) GLW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ORCL 2) ESI 3) CASY 4) GDHG 5) CNM
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLK 3) XLP 4) IGV 5) KRE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (KFY)/1.12
• (SIG)/.85
• (MDRX)/.23

After the Close: 

• (ADBE)/4.39
• (RH)/-.13
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 225K versus 229K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1795K versus 1792K prior.
• PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in April.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Treasury Secretary Yellen speaking, 30Y T-Bond auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (CPNG) annual meeting, (MNST) annual meeting, (LYFT) annual meeting, (TSLA) annual meeting, (IR) annual meeting, (GME) annual meeting, (YELP) annual meeting, (R) investor day, Jefferies Fintech Conference, RBC Medical Device Strategy/Innovation Conference, Rosenblatt Tech Summit, Sidoti Investor Conference, UBS Consumer Insights Day and the ISI Consumer/Retail Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.8 -2.1
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 84.7% of Issues Advancing, 13.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.79 +34.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$174.6M
  
• 127 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 58.4% (+9.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 +8.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.1 -3.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.4 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,612.6 +.92%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (NEUTRAL) +2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.3 -21.1%
  
• Vix 12.4 -3.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -12.6%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.25 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.6 +.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.78 +.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .90 +89.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.2 -4.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.6 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.6 -.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.4 +.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 +8.0
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -5.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.20 +29.4%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$396.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 +1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 271.1 +2.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 293 -5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.1 +5.5%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 173.6 +3.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.1 -.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 166.4 +.75%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 123.4 +2.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.5 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 724.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 -.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.71%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.08%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.1 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.1 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.2 +1.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 258.73 +.22:  Growth Rate +13.4% unch., P/E 20.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 331.74 +.83: Growth Rate +23.7% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.1 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 -5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -43.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.1% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.7% +1.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.69% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 91.1%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 48.3%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -124 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +68 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long