Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.1% 2) Oil Service -2.7% 3) Airlines -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• QDEL, GME, TWLO, KMT, ATEN, RTO, ATHM, IREN, TNP, STLA, LECO, WHD, SIG, CRS, NTCT, PH, LMND, ATI, QTRX, CCL, MSM, CORT, PENN, RARE, CABA, BAND and RH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) APA 2) CSTM 3) RH 4) DXCM 5) STLA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MSM 2) TWOU 3) GRTS 4) CCL 5) ATI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLF 3) IXC 4) KRE 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

 

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +.8% 2) Gold & Silver +.5% 3) Semis -.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IRON, ADBE, TPC, GRND, URGN, CIM, SHOP, HAS, RCM and MDB
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SLS 2) NVD 3) ADBE 4) DISH 5) XPO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ADBE 2) HAS 3) URGN 4) TEM 5) AVGO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) IYW 3) ITB 4) VGT 5) XLU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (LZB)/.70
• (LEN)/3.23
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to -13.0 versus -15.6 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Harker speaking, Fed's Cook speaking and the JPMorgan Energy/Power/Renewables Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.3 -1.0
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 23.7% of Issues Advancing, 74.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.17 -12.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$317.8M
  
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 85 New Lows
• 50.7% (-6.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.7 -5.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 234.2 -.68%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,000.3 +.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 38.0 (FEAR) -5.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.9 +2.0%
  
• Vix 13.0 +9.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -16.8%

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Yeah. (graph)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• America - what’s happening to your food? First it was bananas, then watermelons now even your Avocados are far from normal - is Bill Gates injected them already? (video)
  

• @kylenabecker
  

• DOMINION. Dominion voting machine errors has thrown Puerto Rico's election into *CHAOS.* The AP reported that vote totals from the voting machines were lower than the paper ones in a number of cases. Some machines reversed certain totals or reported zero votes for some candidates.

• @EmeraldRobinson
  

• BREAKING: Puerto Rico held primaries on June 2nd using 6,000 Dominion voting machines across the island. According to election officials, those machines INCORRECTLY CALCULATED VOTE TOTALS. In fact, over 120 polling stations in Puerto Rico reported ZERO VOTES CAST AT ALL.

• @WallStreetApes

• WHAT IS THIS?!? “Hunter Biden actually owns 10% of a company called Eplata, which is a micro financing loan company for illegal immigrants coming up through the southern border.” “At the same time, the Biden Administration Justice Department put out a notice telling the banks that they would, that the Justice Department would take legal action against any bank who refused loans to illegal immigrants. Meanwhile, the first son is, has an equity investment in a company that profits off those very loans”. (video)
• American Farmer Breaks Down What’s Taking Place In Idaho. In addition to the water shutoff order on a half million acres of farmland impacting farmers and about 6,400 water users. The Government is targeting chicken farms and cattle across the US. “They are coming for this food system and they're coming for the homesteaders”. (video)
• I Want Everyone To Watch This Because Trump Was Right About EVERYTHING. Donald Trump “If Biden wins: - Your borders are gone - The middle class is gone - Your safety is gone - They’ll flood your communities with criminal aliens, drugs, and crime - You’ll spent trillions of dollars rebuilding foreign nations, fighting foreign wars, and defending foreign borders - Gas prices going $5, $6, $7 for a gallon. (video)

• @wideawake_media

• Australian senator, Alex Antic: Man-made climate change is "a trojan horse for globalism, led by the UN and their puppet masters". "Alarmist rhetoric about man-made climate change is nothing new. The United Nations and the media have been pushing it for decades... These prophecies of doom simply never come true. The polar bears are still here, the sea hasn't risen, the ozone layer is fine, but the point of this messaging is to make you afraid, and why? Because if a climate apocalypse is imminent, then governments of the world can centralise their power and control, and control your actions with the so-called emergency."

• @theinformant_x
  

• Image captured from a cruise ship off the coast of Florida revealed a Russian flotilla and an American warship nearby. The photograph, which has been verified by experts, shows the Russian ships sailing alongside the American ship in a tense standoff just miles off the Florida Keys. (pic)

• @jackikotkiewicz  

• SINCE BIDEN TOOK OFFICE: Gas: +55.3% Groceries: +21.2% Eating out: +22.2% Baby food: +28.4% K-12 food: +65.1% Pet food: +23% Rent: +21.2% Electricity: +29% Natural gas: +22.2% Used cars: +20.9% Airfare: +39.9% Public transportation: +27.2% Real average weekly earnings: -3.9%.

• @newstart_2024

• Lara Logan: "There's all the talk about bird flu, another pandemic coming, that has just failed miserably in every direction. Because now doctors who were caught blindsided last time, they're not going to be caught again...So people have gotten ahead of that narrative and this is what they hate, because when you live in the world in this battle space of information warfare, you know when they anticipate what the attack is going to be and they get ahead of it, it fails over and over again." (video)

• @WallStreetSilv

• Your tax dollars at work ... Bidenomics. I wonder who profited with those billions. (pic)
  

• @VigilantFox

• “If Trump Gets 20% of the Black Vote, the Democratic Party’s Done FOREVER”. TUCKER CARLSON: “Do you think he has a chance?” VINCE EVERETT ELLISON: (video)
• NEW: Joe Rogan now questions if elections are even “real.” TIM DILLON: “Trump will beat him [Biden], I think, from jail.” ROGAN: “Yeah, 100%.” TIM DILLON: “Trump will win.” ROGAN: “But I don’t know if it’s real. I mean, look, I don’t want to cry election fraud, but why would I imagine that they would manipulate EVERYTHING openly except the election?” (video)
• There’s another goal to the Trump guilty verdict, @VivekGRamaswamy says. “It’s also designed to deflect attention away from what they should actually be going after the Biden family for, which is selling off our foreign policy to make their family rich in places like Ukraine where Hunter Biden has absolutely no business serving on the board of Burisma, a state-affiliated energy company which happens to be the same country that we’re now sending $200 billion of American taxpayer money to.” (video)
  

• @MarioNawfal

• U.S TO RUSSIA: GET YOUR SHIPS AWAY FROM FLORIDA - NOW! PUTIN: DOESN'T FEEL GOOD, DOES IT?! The US Navy dispatched ships and aircraft to track Russian warships that sailed 25 miles off the South Florida coast en route to Cuba. According to the Kremlin, the Russian Ships were "simply 'giving the US a taste of its own medicine.'" (pic)
  

• @songpinganq
  

• ''You are jaywalking. Please go back to the waiting area!'' If traffic cameras catch you jaywalking, the SKYNET system immediately identifies you, automatically withdraws a fine from your digital wallet WeChat, and deducts 1 social credit point (in Shandong province). (video)

• @CaptCoronado

• Update: Both China and Russia are working on setting up permanent military facilities inside Cuba, just 90 miles off the Coast of the US! Will this trigger another Crisis?? Will Russian and Chinese Warships patrolling off our Coast become ‘routine?’

• @Cernovich

• Court revelation: Pulse night club gunman's dad was FBI informant.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,010,545 Reports(+992 from prior report) Through April 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.25 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.25 +1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.3%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.4 +.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.9 -.11%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Falling Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.5 +3.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .70 -45.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.5 -2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.4 -.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.6 -1.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 10.1 -.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +1.0
  

• Total Put/Call .84 +3.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 -46.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$284.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.6 +2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 279.2 +5.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 300 -1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.0 +4.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 174.8 +3.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.0 basis points +8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 -.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.4 +1.4%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 123.0 +.04%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.0 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 141.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 724.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.2 -4.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.6 -2.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.2 -1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) +7.9% +.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 258.90 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 20.9 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.12 +.13: Growth Rate +23.8% unch., P/E 33.5 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.09 +20.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -44.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.1% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.2% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.56% -13.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.15% -21.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 61.6%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 49.6%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -95 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long