Monday, August 05, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Around X:
  • @TonySeruga
  • @DrewHLive
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @FAMS_AMNC
  • @EndWokeness
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • Adin Ross Reveals when he was in School in California, his Teachers were telling Students how Horrible Donald Trump was… Brainwashing children early… this is such a great interview for Gen Z. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @ImMeme0
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.5 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 68.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 29.8 +27.5%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.5 -12.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.1%.
  • S&P 500 futures +1.2%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.7%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Japan Carry Trade Unwind, Mid-East Regional War Fears, VP Harris "Poll Gains", Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 34.4 +46.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.40 -21.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 26.2 -33.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.5 -1.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 +9.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.0 +37.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -16.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.30 +11.1%
  • NYSE Arms .94 -39.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$303.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.8 +6.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 353.4 +5.3%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 274 +14
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.4 +4.5%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 195.2 +6.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 149.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.4 +5.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 188.2 +3.0%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 141.0 +1.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 -1.1%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.5 basis points unch.
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -11.5 basis points +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 690.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 62.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.21% +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.5 euros/megawatt-hour -3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -39.1 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -55.9 -6.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.0 +1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(378 of 500 reporting) +11.2% +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 263.58 +.10:  Growth Rate +15.4% unch., P/E 19.8 -.5
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.77% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 340.49 +2.00: Growth Rate +26.9% +.7 percentage point, P/E 30.0 -1.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .16 -40.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .22 -29.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -11.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.55% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 72.9% +7.5 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 48.9%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 47.9%(+.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,640 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +73 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -3.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Shipping -4.2% 2) Electric Vehicles -3.7% 3) Networking -3.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AAPL, ETSY, AA, EGO, CSWC, COHR, INFY, CGBD, CBT, SMFG, NBR, CLMT, PEB, BTI, WYNN, NRDS, IEP, VAL, DIOD, MBLY, ZIMV, MEOH, CLCO, BECN, AHR, GEO, CSL, JHG, LC, HTGC, RBLX, TPG, QXO, LITE, BZH, CRGY, NVDA, SDRL, BBWI, COIN, EE, WT, OEC, CG, MP, AB, INTC, CC, CRTO, GTLS, GMAB, PCOR, DFH, KRYS, HOOD, JXN, MSTR, DGII and NGVT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) PTEN 2) APA 3) PAYC 4) PZZA 5) TGTX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MRNS 2) MSTR 3) TWOU 4) ICU 5) WBA
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) SOXX 3) XLF 4) XLI 5) XLK

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -2.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Foods -1.1% 2) Semis -1.1% 3) Agriculture -1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SAVA, K, SHC, EDU, TWST, ASTS, ALAB, ZTO, CDNA, PPC, AEHR and DQ
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VLY 2) CRTO 3) APA 4) KOS 5) TTWO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) K 2) SHC 3) TWST 4) ZVRA 5) TSN
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLU 2) XLV 3) SMH 4) XLP 5) IBB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BAX)/.66
  • (BLMN)/.58
  • (CAT)/5.55
  • (CEG)/1.72
  • (DUK)/1.02
  • (EXPD)/1.26
  • (FOXA)/.81
  • (H)/.97
  • (IDXX)/2.89
  • (JLL)/2.42
  • (TAP)/1.68
  • (OC)/4.35
  • (STWD)/.51
  • (TPX)/.64
  • (TDG)/8.54
  • (UBER)/.31
  • (UBS)/.29
  • (VMC)/2.47
  • (YUM)/1.33
  • (ZTS)/1.49
After the Close: 
  • (ABNB)/.91
  • (AMGN)/4.98
  • (ANDE)/1.09
  • (AXON)/1.02
  • (CRUS)/.61
  • (CPNG)/-.01
  • (DVN)/1.26
  • (FTNT)/.41
  • (IAC)/-.66
  • (ILMN)/.11
  • (CART)/.13
  • (JACK)/1.51
  • (MOS)/.66
  • (RDDT)/-.32
  • (RDFN)/-.26
  • (STE)/1.98
  • (SMCI)/8.14
  • (TDW)/.90
  • (TOST)/.11
  • (TRIP)/.37
  • (VFC)/-.37
  • (WYNN)/1.14
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Trade Deficit for June is estimated at -$72.5B versus -$75.1B in May.

Upcoming Splits

  • (MSTR) 10-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, KeyBanc Tech Leadership Forum, Susquehanna Industrials/Energy/Travel Conference and the (EQT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +75.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.6 -1.1
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 3.8% of Issues Advancing, 95.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.12 -27.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$269.7M
  • 22 New 52-Week Highs, 210 New Lows
  • 45.4% (-18.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 34.0 -8
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 24.0 -38.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 219.1 -1.0%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,096.1 -1.0%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 19.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -7.0
  • 1-Day Vix 32.2 +20.6%
  • Vix 40.4 +72.9%
  • Total Put/Call 1.21 +3.4%