Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (EAT)/1.72
• (CAH)/1.73
• (DOLE)/.43
• (PFGC)/1.37
• (UBS)/.29
  

After the Close: 

• (CSCO)/.85
• (LITE)/.02
• (JD)/6.24
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in June.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in June.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for July.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -856,670 barrels versus a -3,728,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,626,670 barrels versus a +1,340,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -77,330 barrels versus a +949,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.15% versus a +.4% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Cleveland CPI MoM for July, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Aug., Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference, Oppenheimer Tech Conference and the Needham FinTech/Digital Transformation Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.2 +2.3
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 73.2% of Issues Advancing, 24.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.36 +33.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$225.4M
  
• 65 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 51.7% (+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.0 +1
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 44.1 +9.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 223.2 +.51%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,819.4 +1.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 24.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 15.6 -17.3%
  
• Vix 19.3 -6.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -14.6%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.75 +2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 67.5 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.05%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 32.3 +.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.8 -4.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures -.31%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.46%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Sharply Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Yen Carry Trade Unwind Fears, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Bargain-Hunting, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.2 -32.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.58 +13.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 32.5 +38.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.5 +.41%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 28.3 -20.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 144.0 +49.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 -16.4%

• NYSE Arms .85 -34.1%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$122.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.1 -1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 331.60 -5.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 288 +14
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.4 +.02%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 195.2 +.44%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 +.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 186.1 -.7%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 143.9 +2.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.97%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -12.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 140.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 701.0 +11.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 63.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.2% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -37.6 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.5 +4.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.5 -1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(407 of 500 reporting) +10.8% -.4 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 263.53 -.05:  Growth Rate +15.4% unch., P/E 19.7 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.78% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 340.31 -.18: Growth Rate +26.9% unch., P/E 29.8 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.44 -60.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.09 -31.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -11.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.55% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 70.3% -2.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 54.9%(+9.9 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 49.1%(+14.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -700 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -63 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +133 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BCO)/1.47
• (CVS)/1.73
• (GPN)/2.91
• (EMR)/1.41
• (LPX)/1.98
• (LYFT)/.16
• (RL)/2.48
• (ROK)/2.08
• (SHOP)/.20
• (DIS)/1.20
• (WWW)/.11
• (ZBH)/1.99
  

After the Close: 

• (APP)/.74
• (BYND)/-.53
• (BLNK)/-.17
• (BOOT)/1.07
• (CF)/1.85
• (DUOL)/.32
• (FWRD)/-.18
• (KLIC)/.30
• (MTW)/.49 
• (MRO)/.69
• (MCK)/7.21
• (MNST)/.45
• (OXY)/.77
• (HOOD)/.16
• (RGLD)/1.18
• (ZG)/.25
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,484.290 barrels versus a -3,436,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,428,570 barrels versus a -3,665,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +329,140 barrels versus a +1,534,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.74% versus a -1.5% gain prior.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for June is estimated to fall to $10.0B versus $11.35B in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (MSTR) 10-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, JP Morgan Auto Conference, (FLEX) annual meeting and the Raymond James Industrial/Energy Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +28.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.6 +3.0
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 75.8% of Issues Advancing, 22.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .84 -33.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$68.2M
  
• 28 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 50.2% (+4.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 +8
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 33.0 +40.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 220.9 -.19%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,190.3 +.62%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 22.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 22.1 -43.8%
  
• Vix 27.5 -28.9%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.07 -16.4%