Monday, August 19, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @DC_Draino
  • @sdemarcoii
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @TimRunsHisMouth
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.75 -3.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 58.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.5 +3.5%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.5 +.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Diminished Mid-East Regional War Fears, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -1.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .58 -8.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.5 +2.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.9 -.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 +2.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.9 -1.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 166.0 +17.0
  • Total Put/Call .72 -20.9%
  • NYSE Arms .69 -46.9%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$150.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.6 -.9%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 296.8 -1.2%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 255 -4
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.6 -1.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 164.4 -1.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.1 -3.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.85 -4.7%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 142.3 -.21%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.08 +.12%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -10.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 695.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 +.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.20% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -39.2 -2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -59.5 -.6
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.1 +.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(464 of 500 reporting) +8.5% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 264.16 -.07:  Growth Rate +15.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.1 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 343.28 +.76: Growth Rate +28.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.9 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .88 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .81 +10.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -20.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +1.99% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 68.6% -.3 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.64% unch.: CPI YoY +2.60% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 60.9%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 42.5%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +457 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/utility/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Telecom -.6% 2) Computer Hardware +.1% 3) Defense +.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CNTA, BWLP, HA and IEP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FUBO 2) AAP 3) PBI 4) MDT 5) RXRX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) IEP 2) RILY 3) ABR 4) XPEL 5) NKE
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XOP 2) XBI 3) IDU 4) ARKK 5) KWEB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +1.8% 2) Social Media +1.8% 3) Homebuilding +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ZIM, ASTS, EBS, SYM, AS, TGTX, INOD, UTHR, KRNT, RBRK, UPST, PUBM, BNTX, AA, GDS, GOOS, TRIP, SA, LI, CPNG, ZK, INTA, CDNA, CRGX, CRGX, SPRY, ASPN, VALE, MT, PAGS, ADMA, TRMD, MCD, CRBP, CERT and ENLC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FUBO 2) AVTR 3) LQDA 4) LPSN 5) MAXN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VCIG 2) RDFN 3) ASTS 4) GOVX 5) APDN
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLF 3) SOXX 4) IYW 5) XLP
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (LOW)/3.96
  • (MDT)/1.20
  • (VIPS)/3.94
After the Close: 
  • (KEYS)/1.35
  • (LZB)/.60
  • (TOL)/3.31
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Aug.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, Wells Fargo Fintech Information/Business Services Forum, (TXN) business update call, (MCHP) general meeting and the Seaport Research Conferenced could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -13.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +2.1
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 72.3% of Issues Advancing, 25.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .88 -32.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$174.6M
  • 123 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
  • 57.4% (+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 63.0 +3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.0 +1.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 227.2 -.03%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,878.5 -.34%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (FEAR) +6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.3 -22.6%
  • Vix 14.6 -1.3%
  • Total Put/Call .72 -20.9%