Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.4% 2) Airlines +1.1% 3) Restaurants +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CLPT, PHAT, TCOM, BILL, ENR, PODD, LIND, RMD, GLDD, RYAAY, SDA, CUK, AHCO, ALAB, ONON, ARDT, JD, AMBA and TM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ATUS 2) TCOM 3) DISH 4) JWN 5) YUMC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LRGR 2) TRIB 3) HAIN 4) CLPT 5) TCOM
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) XLF 3) XBI 4) IYF 5) AMLP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANF)/2.22
• (BBWI)/.36
• (CHWY)/.02
• (DCI)/.89
• (FL)/-.07
• (SJM)/2.17
• (KSS)/.44
• (PDCO)/.33
  

After the Close: 

• (AFRM)/-.48
• (COO)/.91
• (CRWD)/.97
• (FIVE)/.54
• (HPQ)/.86
• (NTAP)/1.45
• (NTNX)/.20
• (NVDA)/.65
• (OKTA)/.61
• (CRM)/2.35
• (VEEV)/1.53
• (VSCO)/.37
• (GES)/.43
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,521,170 barrels versus a -4,649,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,930,670 barrels versus a -1,606,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -780,330 barrels versus a -3,312,000 barrel decline prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.02% versus a +.8% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Deutshe Bank Tech Conference, (CASY) annual meeting, (BOOT) annual meeting and the Jefferies Semi/IT Hardware/Communications Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -30.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.8 -.6
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 31.5% of Issues Advancing, 65.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 +20.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$155.7M
  
• 111 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 61.0% (-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 55.3 +3.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 224.9 -.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,965.7 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 52.0 (NEUTRAL) -3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.7 -14.2%
  
• Vix 15.8 -2.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +2.2%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.0 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 57.5 +.24 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.6 +1.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 +1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Modestly Lower on Mid-East Regional War Fears, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.0 +.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .58 -34.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.3 +2.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.9 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.8 -1.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 148.0 +20.0
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -13.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.03 +37.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$118.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.4 +.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 293.0 -.78%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 246 -14
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.0 +.44%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 162.5 +.57%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.2 -1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.5 -.62%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 138.2 +1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.1 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -19.25 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 134.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 695.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.13% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.1 +6.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.2 +3.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.2 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(477 of 500 reporting) +9.4% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 264.82 n/a:  Growth Rate +16.2% n/a, P/E 21.2 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.65% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +26.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 344.11 n/a: Growth Rate +28.3% n/a, P/E 32.3 n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .71 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .73 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -12.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +1.99% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 71.7% +.6 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.64% unch.: CPI YoY +2.59% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 47.4%(+6.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 44.6%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +66 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -2.6% 2) Semis -1.7% 3) Gambling -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OPRA, JD, BABA, BWLP, SG, SEDG, ELF, GH, IEP, NSSC and PDD
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PDD 2) IEP 3) KSS 4) FFIE 5) S
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PDD 2) GH 3) IEP 4) ICU 5) ELF
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) VGT 3) XLV 4) XLK 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume