Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, China Stimulus Hopes, Tech/Commodities Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.4 +.1 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.1 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 0.0 -1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +6.8% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.86 +.23:  Growth Rate +15.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 378.76 +.47: Growth Rate +33.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.58 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 12.75 basis point (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.53% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.8% +.3 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.71% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.0%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 38.6%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +150 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Foods -2.4% 2) Airlines -2.4% 3) Road & Rail -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• JNPR, CAVA, LLY, HROW, BLFS, SGRY, IBTA, TREE, EH, BAH, UBER, HALO, BRC, PLTR, NRIX, GPCR, MARA, IONQ and ERII
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IBB 2) JNPR 3) SYM 4) SKX 5) BE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) UBER 2) LYFT 3) ELAN 4) MGX5) IREN
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) KRE 3) KWEB 4) XLV 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.5% 2) Computer Hardware +3.5% 3) Energy +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SMCI, OKLO, TWST, ZETA, AMN, BE, SMR, MBLY, BECN, INOD, LEU, AFRM, BBAR, AOSL, HIMS, YPF, ROOT, WRD, DLO, MSTR, BTDR, HOOD, DKNG, LBRT, ZK, CVS, OSCR, WRD, SFHG, SOC, ACVA, WRBY, LOMA, DEC, DCOM, DEC, SQ, CCJ, GGAL, SUPV, BSX, NN, DY, PAM and POWL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UUUU 2) CNX 3) PRMW 4) SYM 5) ALHC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MBI 2) BE 3) AUR 4) HY 5) HOOD
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) XLF 3) XLE 4) IGV 5) IBB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ENR)/1.17
• (J)/1.92
• (LOW)/2.82
• (MDT)/1.25
• (VIPS)/2.49
• (WMT)/.53
• (WB)/.44
  

After the Close: 

• (ALC)/.73
• (DLB)/.45
• (KEYS)/1.57
• (LZB)/.64
• (POWL)/3.55
• (GES)/.37
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Oct. is estimated to fall to 1335K versus 1354K in Sept.
• Building Permits for Oct. is estimated to rise to 1435K versus 1425K in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Schmid speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, Stephens Investment Conference, Wolfe Healthcare Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, RBC Capital Tech/Internet/Media/Telecom Conference, (FOX/A) annual meeting, (QCOM) investor day, (NVAX) investor meeting, Deutsche Bank Space Summit and the Needham Security Networking/Communications Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.5 +3.1
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 63.0% of Issues Advancing, 37.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .92 +24.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$82.9M
  
• 92 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
• 57.7% (+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.0 +3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.2 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.4 -.15%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,043.6 -.14%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 51.0 (NEUTRAL) +2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.9 -33.3%
  
• Vix 15.5 -4.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .81 -13.8%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Ukraine’s Allies Are Leaning on Zelenskiy for a Way to End the War.
• Australia to Safeguard Cash Payments as Digital Shift Grows.
• China Will Send a Weaker Yuan to the Trump Front.
• Samsung’s Shares Surge After Surprise $7 Billion Buyback Plan.
• Asia’s Richest Man Joins Race to Popularize Human-Like Robots.
• Asian Stocks Eye Soft Start as Fed Doubts Simmer.
• Oil Holds Weekly Loss on Glut Concerns, China’s Demand Outlook.
• Bitcoin Churns Near $90,000 After Largest Drop Since US Election.
• NYC’s Revised Congestion Proposal Would Raise Fee to $15 by 2031.
• Wall Street Bankers Spot a Fat Payday in $1 Trillion AI Hysteria.
• Trump Team Is Seeking to Ease US Rules for Self-Driving Cars.
• Ramaswamy Sees ‘Massive Cuts’ for Contractors in Efficiency Push.
• Treasuries See 2024 Gains Dwindle With December Fed Cut at Risk.
• Asset Managers Bet Grid Stocks Will Soar in Trump’s Anti-ESG Era.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge: 

• In "Major Policy Shift" Biden Authorizes Ukraine's Use Of US Missiles To Hit Targets Inside Russia.
• Visualizing How Trump Realigned The Political Landscape.
• US Obesity Levels Are Particularly Severe.
• 3D Chess Or 52-Card Pickup.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Cars, Meds, Oil, & Tech: America's Main Imports.
• In Their Final Meeting, Xi Tells Biden China Is "Ready to Work" With Trump Administration.
• Hezbollah's Media Spokesman Assassinated By Israel In Heart Of Beirut After Haifa Synagogue Attacked.
• Trump Team Weighs Courts-Martial For Officers Who Oversaw Afghanistan Withdrawal.
• Net-Zero Rollback: How Trump Might Achieve De-Regulation Goals.
• Anti-MAGA PA Officials Go Rogue, Keep Counting Illegal Ballots In Defiance Of State Supreme Court.
• Musk, Ramaswamy Seek Volunteers To Join New Department Of Government Efficiency.
• Hartnett: Trump 2.0 Unleashed US TINA, And This Is How It Ends.
• Trump Faces An Economic Catch-22 His First Day In Office... What Can He Do About It?
• Record High Migration From Poor To Rich Countries In 2023: Study.
• Democrats Propose 'Shadow Government' To Oppose Trump's Cabinet.
• Who Really Profits From The Ukraine War?
• Climate Summits "No Longer Fit For Purpose", Experts Say.
• Trump Can Help A New Generation Learn To Appreciate Our Veterans.
• IRS Watchdog Nominee Pledges To Investigate Allegations Of Agency Misconduct.
• Bessent Vs. Lutnick: Musk & RFK Push For Pro-Crypto Treasury Secretary While Bass Backs Rumored Favorite.
• Hundreds Of New UFO Sightings Reported To Pentagon.
• Biden's Cabinet Nominees Were Completely Unqualified Compared To Trump's.
• What Happens To Jan. 6 Defendants After Trump's Election Win?
• "We Don't Have Enough...": Russia Temporarily Limits Exports Of Enriched Uranium To U.S. 
• Firearm Suppressor Demand Explodes At Historic Rate .

Wall Street Journal:

• Investors Are Betting on a Market Melt-Up.
• Trump’s Push for Ukraine Peace Finds Growing Acceptance in Europe.
• 2.3 Million Jobs: The Federal Workforce. A Trump U.S. Energy Renaissance.
• Messy Fight for Trump’s Treasury Chief Spills Into Public.
• The Rural Areas Pushing for Divorce From Democratic Cities.
• Trump’s Choice for Energy Secretary Is a Fracking Booster and Climate Skeptic.
• How the Maker of Nerf Guns Will Navigate Trump’s Tariffs on China.
• Inside Big Tech’s Bid to Sink the Online Kid Safety Bill.
• Eli Lilly and Novo Want to Shake off Ozempic Copycats. Are They Ready To Meet Demand? 
• A $12,000 Surgery to Change Eye Color Is Surging in Popularity.
• The 19 Best Tech Gifts of 2024, According to Our Gadget Gurus.

CNBC:  

• During meeting with Biden, China’s Xi cautions the U.S. to ‘make the wise choice’ to keep relations stable.
• Restaurant executives can’t wait for 2025 after slow traffic and wave of bankruptcies.
• Netflix said a record 60 million households worldwide tuned in for Jake Paul versus Mike Tyson fight.
• Three Mile Island restart could mark a turning point for nuclear energy as Big Tech influence grows.
• Top Wall Street analysts are upbeat on these stocks for the long haul.

MarketWatch.com:  

• 11 bank stocks trading at low valuations, even after Trump bump.
• Nvidia tops list of favored S&P 500 stocks on expected sales growth through 2026.

NewsMax:

• Newt Gingrich: This Is 'Most Reform-Oriented Cabinet'.

Fox News:

• Biden admin gives Ukraine green light to target Russian interior with US missiles.
• Pentagon can’t explain to the American people where $824,000,000,000 went.
• Election judge faces felony charges over accepting unregistered votes.
• Senator threatens to block seat if Democrat refuses to concede over disputed ballots.
• Trump's waste-cutter czar pulls back the curtain on strategy behind what's getting axed.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• THAT’S HOW IT’S DONE: Republican NBC Guest Delivers Harsh Reality Check to Those Trashing RFK Jr., Burns Jen Psaki When She Rudely Interrupts (VIDEO).
• When the Boss Buys You McDonald’s: Trump Has His Health and Human Services Secretary RFK Jr. Strike a Pose with Big Mac. 
• Actess Justine Bateman Shares Optimism That ‘Woke Era is Over’ Says Trump Victory Removed ‘Suffocating Cloud’ on Free Speech.
• Berkeley Republicans Deal with Death Threats, Accused of Creating ‘Unsafe Environment’.
• ‘F*** Elon Musk’: Brazil’s First Lady Insults X CEO and Gets a Brutal Response: ‘They will lose the Next Election’ (VIDEO)**.
• FAKE NEWS FAIL: New York Times “Fact Check” of Important RFK, Jr. Claim Regarding Froot Loops Blows Up in Its Face When X Users Spot the Truth in Paper’s Own Article.
• Musk’s “Super-IPO” to Send SHOCKWAVES Through the Market?
• BREAKING: Joe Biden Authorizes Ukraine to Strike INSIDE RUSSIA with U.S. Long Range Missiles in Major Policy Reversal, Two Months Before Trump Takes Office.
• Biden-Harris Send Another $230 Million In Unvetted Money to Pro Terrorist Elements.
• WATCH: Joe Rogan Claims Biden Voted for Trump and Explains Why He Thinks So.
• Sen. Mike Lee Has an Excellent Idea to Stop Democrat Bob Casey From Stealing Pennsylvania’s Senate Race.

The Epoch Times:

• US Urges Caution With Chinese Investments as CCP Opens Megaport in Peru.
• At Least 8 Killed, 17 Injured in Mass Stabbing Attack in China.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• NEW: Vivek Ramaswamy - who is co-leading the Dept. of Govt. Efficiency - just perfectly laid out how Trump can use swift, executive power to demolish the bureaucratic state. "First is - we want to go right in through executive action to do the failures of the executive branch that need to be addressed." "The people who we elect to run the government - they're NOT the ones who actually run the government. It's the unelected bureaucrats in the administrative state - that was CREATED through executive action... it's gonna be FIXED through executive action." Yes! (video)
  

• @CharlieKNews
  

• We VOTED for Donald J. Trump, which means we VOTED and SUPPORT every cabinet pick. If you don't pass his vision, we will vote you OUT. Elon Musk, Charlie Kirk along with Millions of MAGA Patriots will make sure you lose your race. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!
• Speaker Mike Johnson throws his full support behind Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, saying he will reform the DOJ after an era of shameful lawfare targeting conservatives. Good for you, @MikeJohnson. (video)
• Arizona is still counting votes. Georgia is still counting votes. California is still counting votes. Pennsylvania is still counting votes. North Carolina is still counting votes. CAN YOU SEE WHAT THEY ARE DOING ?
• Mollie Hemingway delivers an absolutely masterful defense of Matt Gaetz as AG. For eight years, we haven't had a Department of Justice, we've had a Department of Injustice, and too few of our leaders in DC had the spine to fight back. Gaetz has enemies in DC precisely because he didn't back down from the toughest fights. He is the warrior we need to set things right. (video)

• @kylenabecker

• BREAKING: President Joe Biden is sending U.S. long-range missiles to Ukraine that can strike deep inside Russia. "Mr. Biden’s decision is a major change in U.S. policy,” the NYT reports. The American people will be lucky to avoid WW3 before President Trump takes office.
• It is my belief most senators are mortified that the surveillance apparatus has career-ending dirt on them. If these compromised senators dare to defy the intelligence community, then they risk the world learning about their dirty deeds. This power struggle over cabinet picks will only serve to further illustrate what Donald Trump has shown to be true since the moment that he first came down that escalator. The U.S. government is rotten to its foundation. The only thing left to do is uproot the bad actors who have hijacked our government and return control of it to the American people. This will not be an easy fight. It will be an ugly one. But Donald Trump seems to be up to the challenge.

• @bennyjohnson
  

• Wait till you see Trump’s face when he sees Joe Rogan. (video)

• @MarioNawful

• BREAKING: T-MOBILE HACKED IN MAJOR CHINESE SPY OPERATION. T-Mobile is the latest telecom giant to fall prey to a sweeping Chinese espionage hack targeting key U.S. communications networks, including AT&T and Verizon.
  

• @MTGrepp

• HOLY SH*T!! Ever since Pennsylvania admitted to counting illegal votes, Democrats are gaining in the Senate Race. THIS IS RIDICULOUS… THEY ARE STEALING ELECTIONS IN BROAD DAYLIGHT. WE CAN’T LET IT HAPPEN. YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO. (map)
• BREAKING! After 11 days of Ballots continually being counted in North Carolina, The Democrats have now taken the lead for NC Supreme Court. THIS is what stealing an Election looks like. STOP THE STEAL!!!

• @nicksortor

• #BREAKING: California’s 45th Congressional seat is now set to flip from Republican to Democrat after THOUSANDS of new ballots pour in. How the HELL are they still “counting” ballots in California?! Rep. Michelle Steel had been leading by thousands of votes until today, and the Democrat challenger is now leading by *31 votes.* There is NO WAY. California is corrupt as hell. (pic)

• @amuse

• ENEMIES WITHIN: Democrats led by Rick Wilson have formed a domestic espionage organization called the Two Plus Two Coalition that will make Crossfire Hurricane look like child’s play. As described it will have as many resources in the US as China’s MSS and Russia’s SVR. Whoever Trump selects as the new FBI Director will need to have the Counterintelligence Division target Wilson and his comrades.

• @Geiger_Capital

• The IRS is warning Americans that starting 2025 they must report payments on Venmo, PayPal & Zelle of over $600. Meanwhile… The Pentagon just failed its SEVENTH audit in a row, as they were unable to account for 60% of their $4.1 trillion in assets. $824 billion annual budget.

• @iheartmindy

• Breaking! You're not going to believe this (yes, you are) but the incident commander for the Maui fires was just picked up for r*ping a 12 year old child....and we already know what kind of blackmail the Deep State uses to control people, so there's that piece of the puzzle. Speaking of....is the public just never going to get answers on "why" they shut off the hydrants, never used their warning siren system, and sent people in the wrong direction to die on purpose? Keep in mind this is the fire chief, the police chief was the one that got a lofty raise for moving there after being the incident commander for the Las Vegas shooting cover up, and the Sheriff that was in charge of that same shooting is now magically Nevada's governor somehow despite being hated by even his own party. Gee, you'd almost think our out-of-control corrupt government coordinates these all these suspicious things on purpose, or something? (pic)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Shocking new footage of flooding in Valencia. Spain has never ever experienced this level of flooding before, but also remember the current levels of Geo-Engineering have also never been seen before. (video)
  

• @ViglilantFox
  

• Why are there so many pharma ads on TV? HINT: It’s not to sell drugs. A TV news president admitted to RFK Jr. that any host allowing him to speak negatively about Big Pharma on air would be FIRED because “this is where our advertisers are.” Jaws dropped when former pharma insider @CalleyMeans told Tucker Carlson on his show, “The news ad spending from pharma is a public relations lobbying tactic, essentially to BUY OFF the news... The media plays referee because they're funded by so on all levels.” (video)

• @hodgetwins

• Why did Biden’s DOD order an industrial shredder the day Trump won the election? (pic)

• @StevieStacks84
  

• When they start to cry when Trump makes recess appointments, remember this.

• @ggreenwald
  

• Lots of articles on how MSNBC's audience has completely collapsed -- disappeared -- once Kamala lost and the got disillusioned, but the full extent is shocking. Their prime-time shows can't even get 75k people watching in the key demo (18-54). Weekend shows don't even get 30k!

• @matt_vanswol

• This is the road I drove my kids to school on, every single morning. This is what it looks like today, a full 50 days after Helene. Can someone explain why there is ZERO federal effort being put into helping us clean up? I don't understand. Where is everyone? (video)

• @wendyp4545
  

• Blinken just agreed to pay for a Commuter Train and now we know why. Blinken is owned by China. (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: Iowa pollster Ann Selzer retires from polling. Her final Iowa poll was Harris+3 and she tried to justify it. The final result was Trump+13 - an error of 16 points. The Selzer poll was previously the “gold standard” of polling. However, Selzer says this decision to retire was made before her final poll of 2024.
• BREAKING: Senator Mike Lee says that if Bob Casey & Democrats steal the Pennsylvania Senate election from Dave McCormick (R), the Senate can refuse to seat him. "Article I, Sec. 5, Cl. 1: 'Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members.'" "It's time to concede now."
  

• @TaraBull808

• BREAKING: California Democrat Derek Tran pulls ahead of Republican Michelle Steel by 36 votes in the 45th House District 10 days later. (graph)

• @HealthRanger
  

• The Dems are desperately trying to steal control of the House. After stealing some local elections, they will blackmail a couple of GOP members to resign at just the right time, handing the Dems majority control of the House.

• @TRHLofficial

• Matt Gaetz: -Submitted the contents of Hunter Biden’s missing laptop into evidence -Exposed career republicans for insider trading, including one rep who invested in Raytheon the day before the Ukraine war. -railed against Fauci for pandemic, crimes against humanity and gain of function -confronted the FBI on abuses against whistleblowers and J6ers -and a man is sitting in prison right now because he tried to extort Matt Gaetz’s father for $25Million in exchange for a “guaranteed pardon” in an ongoing lawfare effort, the documents of which, Matt will soon have total access to. No wonder the uniparty wants to keep Matt Gaetz out of the AG position so badly. No wonder they keep trying to denigrate and humiliate him. He clearly can’t be bought.

• @WallStreetSilv

• This is why your doctor gets aggressive. Knowledge is power, ignorance is bliss.

• @MagaResource
  

• NEW: Department of defense official laughs in Jon Stewart’s face when questioned about the waste, fraud and abuse there. Stewart is a liberal but is stunned at Democrat Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks’ smug answer when he questions her about the rampant waste, fraud and abuse at the department of defense. The DOD has failed seven consecutive audits. (video)

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,016,047 Reports(+2,606 from prior report) Through October 25, 2024.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 +1.25 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 64.0 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.22%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.8 +.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.0 -.23%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.12%.
• S&P 500 futures +.25%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.57%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.