Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education +3.3% 2) Utilities +2.0% 3) Road & Rail +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ARQQ, SYM, SPIR, CVNA, FTAI, OLLI, DUOL, DCTH, LTH, AKRO, AMAT, LRCX, OS, XPEV, CAMT, KLAC, CEG, VRNA, DXCM, SPT, EVH, GMAB, TENB, TSM, EVH, DOCN, FLS, PAA, PBLX, CLS, PAGP, BRKR, DKNG, TSEM, DAWN, UBER, HEI and PEGA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PAGP 2) EOG 3) ABR 4) WSM 5) NEXT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KLAC 2) SYM 3) LRCX 4) DXCM 5) API
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) OIH 3) KBWB 4) PPA 5) XLY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FAST)/.48
• (HBAN)/.31
• (RF)/.55
• (SLB)/.90
• (STT)/2.44
• (TFC)/.88
• (WBS)/1.35
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Dec. is estimated to rise to 1325K versus 1289K in Nov.
• Building Permits for Dec. is estimated to fall to 1460K versus 1493K in Nov.
  

9:15 am EST 

• Industrial Production MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in Nov.
• Capacity Utilization for Dec. is estimated to rise to 77.0% versus 76.8% in Nov.
• Manufacturing Production for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, US Baker Hughes weekly rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +18.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.6 +.5
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 61.3% of Issues Advancing, 36.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 -25.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$21.0M
  
• 69 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 53.3% (+1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.6 +11.7
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 73.0 -.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.6 -1.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,310.0 -.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 30.0 (FEAR) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.8 -13.7%
  
• Vix 15.9 -1.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .74 -11.9%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 -2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 54.75 -4.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.9 +.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.2 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.20%.

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Plunging Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 +.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .70 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.5 +3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.5 -.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +2.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.3 +1.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 195.0 +22.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -8.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.40 -18.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$110.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.5 -.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 288.7 -.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 175 -13
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.5 +1.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 161.7 +.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 123.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.8 -.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.3 -.14%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 108.7 -1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.05%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.5 basis points -3.5 basis points
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -9.0 basis points -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 646.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 45.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.0 euros/megawatt-hour +.13%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -7.3 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.5 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.3 -2.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(28 of 500 reporting) +23.6% +3.4 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.12 +.04:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.7 +.4
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 395.68 +.15: Growth Rate +26.2% unch., P/E 33.2 +.8
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 39.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.7% +1.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% -4.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.82% -4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 70.1% (-6.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 53.4%(-10.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +450 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +172 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BAC)/.77
• (FHN)/.39
• (MTB)/3.69
• (MS)/1.70
• (PNC)/3.33
• (USB)/1.05
• (UNH)/6.73
  

After the Close: 

• (OZK)/1.44
• (JBHT)/1.61
• (TSM)/1.44
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Business Outlook for Jan. is estimated to rise to -5.0 versus -10.9 in Dec.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in Nov.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
• The Import Price Index Ex Petrol MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Nov.
• The NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Jan.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 210K versus 201K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1872K versus 1867K prior.
  

10:00 am EST 

• Business Inventories for Nov. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Oct.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to 45.0 versus 46.0 in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (RLI) 2-for0-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4Q update, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (MU) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST