Monday, February 10, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk   
  • Washington DC has the highest median household income in America outside of California’s Bay Area. $121k, versus the national median of $82k. Can anyone explain to me why this is acceptable? Because I’m struggling to think of reasons why we should be okay with it. Interesting. (graph)
  • HOW WERE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS GETTING $59 MILLION DOLLARS TO STAY IN LUXURY HOTELS IN NEW YORK… …WHEN FEMA TRIED TO KICK OUT 3,000 HURRICANE HELENE VICTIMS IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA OUT OF HOTELS IN THE WINTER?!!!!!! CAN SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THIS TO ME?!!!!!! It is outrageous.
  • @amuse
  • @nicksortor
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @MarioNawful
  • TRUMP: ALL HELL BREAK LOOSE IF ISRAELI HOSTAGES ARE NOT BACK BY SATURDAY. “If all the Gaza hostages aren't returned by Saturday at 12pm, I would say cancel the ceasefire. Let all hell break loose. Israel can override it.”
  • EX-CIA, USAID OFFICIALS RUN META'S ELECTION "SAFEGUARDS". Meta has reportedly placed former intelligence operatives in charge of its election integrity efforts. The platform's online security chief, ex-CIA officer Aaron Berman, reportedly implemented sweeping content controls across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp during Brazil's 2022 elections. The program included content removal, warning labels, and message forwarding restrictions.
  • @WallStreetApes
  • This woman is a registered independent voter. She gives her opinion of what she’s seeing between Elon Musk, DOGE and Democrats from an independent voters perspective. This video is only 35 seconds and it skyrocketed to over 105k Likes. It’s pure gold: (video)
  • When Elon Musk’s DOGE Team audits the Department of Defense, this needs to be looked at Dr Steven Greer, Founder of the Disclosure Project, exposes how the DoD works with the Military Industrial Complex to create unaccountable money. They’ll say an aircraft costs $2 billion to make, it really cost $150 million, “The rest of it goes through the backdoor into these unsanctioned projects that neither the president nor the congress knows, never mind the American people, multiply that across the whole system.” This is the unelected Deep State Bureaucrats in action. (video)
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @WideAwakeMedia
  • @catturd2
  • @FinanceLancelot
  • @DineshDSouza
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @VigilantFox
  • REPORT: Joe Rogan just delivered a blunt message to those who pushed the COVID shots and refuse to own their mistakes. “I can’t f*ck with you anymore if you can’t say that you were wrong about that. I just can’t.” But he didn’t stop there. Rogan made it clear that any doctor still pushing the shots should be an instant red flag. “Imagine going to a doctor right now, and they’re telling you, ‘You should get your COVID shots. You should stay up to date.’ Imagine.” (video)
  • BREAKING: Jeep debuts the best commercial of Super Bowl 59. They dropped $32 million on this ad—and they’re about to get their money’s worth and then some. Starring Harrison Ford and the American flag, the ad featured several patriotic statements, including: “Freedom is for everybody. But it isn’t free. It’s earned.” “There are real heroes in the world, but not the ones in the movies. Real heroes are humble, and they’re not driven by pride.” “The most sacred thing in life isn’t the path. It’s the freedom to choose it.” (video)
  • WHOOPSIE: A resurfaced video shows Mark Cuban PRAISING the idea of REDUCING the size of government. “As a libertarian, I think we can reduce employment in government by at least a third, reduce the overhead and administration by that much or more.” Now, Cuban is accusing DOGE—not the government—of lacking transparency. (video)
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @GeorgePapa19
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 53.5 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.3 -.3%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.6 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.18%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Diminished Trade War Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.8 -4.4%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .44 -67.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.8 +2.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.1 +.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 +.71%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.2 -2.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 168.0 +3.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .73 -8.8%
  • NYSE Arms .89 +18.7%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$200.6M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.1 -.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 289.5 -1.3%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 177 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.7 -.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 141.9 -.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.3 -.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.1 -.33%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 85.1 +.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 +.48%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.5 basis points unch.
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -1.0 basis point +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 135.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 602.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.16%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 58.0 euros/megawatt-hour +4.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.2 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.1 +4.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.7 -3.2 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(313 of 500 reporting) +12.4% +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.85 +.91:  Growth Rate +16.0% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.0 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.83% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% +6.9 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 403.80 +1.89: Growth Rate +30.6% +.6 percentage point, P/E 34.2 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.74 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 22.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.94% +5.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.9% -1.6 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 73.1% (+.7 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 47.1%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +189 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +121 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Banks -1.4% 2) Computer Services -.9% 3) Pharma -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • XPEV, TECH, TWST, ILMN, INCY, ON, DNA, CNTA, BRKR, EPC, FRPT, OPFI, MANH, MBX and SMTC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XME 2) GH 3) ZI 4) SKX 5) SMTC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PLRX 2) SMTC 3) EPC 4) ON 5) CROX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ITB 2) XLV 3) XLF 4) XLE 5) IBB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +3.4% 2) Computer Hardware +3.0% 3) Oil Service +2.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SWTX, MNDY, AXSM, ASTS, PDYN, GRRR, BYRN, MBLY, VNET, NSP, CLF, ROK, SMCI, CENX, ZIM, LNW, ORIC, METC, ASAN, TDOC, SERV, PONY, BP, KC, NUE, GDS, DOCS, TS, SMR, OPRA, BABA, STLD, TTD, LQDT, NBIS, WDC, CFLT, NBIS, ROKU, NET, LYFT, COCO, BIDU, IMNM, X, SNCY, MAG, MCD, AFRM, FLNC, MAG, YMM, STRK, TKO, GFI, EQNR, BILL, GCMG, TAL, BZ and NVGT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) UUP 2) MNDY 3) ITUB 4) HBI 5) IRBT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SWTX 2) MNDY 3) AXSM 4) MPAA 5) FPAY
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) KWEB 2) CONY 3) IYZ 4) XLP 5) OIH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ALC)/.71
  • (AN)/4.26
  • (CG)/.96
  • (CARR)/.50
  • (KO)/.52
  • (DD)/.98
  • (HUM)/-2.21
  • (LDOS)/2.27
  • (MAR)/2.39
  • (SHOP)/.43
  • (SWI)/.27
After the Close: 
  • (AIG)/1.24
  • (CAR)/-1.08
  • (DASH)/.34
  • (GILD)/1.73
  • (IAC)/.24
  • (LYFT)/.21
  • (PBI)/.14
  • (RRR)/.43
  • (SAGE)/-1.48
  • (SMCI)/.61
  • (ZG)/.19
Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to 104.7 versus 105.1 in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell testimony to Senate, Fed's Hammack speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Wolfe Research Auto/Auto Tech/Semi Conference, Stifel Transport/Logistics Conference, (WDC) investor day, BofA Financial Services Conference, TD Cowen Aerospace/Defense Conference and the Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +14.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 19.0 +6.7
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 57.6% of Issues Advancing, 40.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.05 +40.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$201.2M
  • 92 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
  • 55.6% (+1.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.3 -4.7
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.8 +2.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.6 +.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,381.7 +1.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (NEUTRAL) +5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.9 -38.7%
  • Vix 16.2 -2.2%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -6.3%