Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Plunging Long-Term Rates, Higher Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Financial/Gambling Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.5 -5.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.0 +2.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.6 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(384 of 500 reporting) +10.4% -.6 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.99 +.05:  Growth Rate +16.0% unch., P/E 22.2 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.81% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.53 +.20: Growth Rate +30.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.6 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.60 -10.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 21.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% -60.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.7% +2.5 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.81% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 79.5% (-4.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 48.7%(-10.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -9 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +73 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +57 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BIDU)/14.37
• (BLKB)/1.06
• (EXPD)/1.43
• (FLR)/.78
• (GPC)/1.55
• (MDT)/1.36
• (VMI)/3.63
• (VC)/1.96
• (VMC)/1.76
  

After the Close: 

• (ANET)/.57
• (CDNS)/1.82
• (CYH)/.08
• (DVN)/1.00
• (FLS)/.77
• (OXY)/.68
• (FOUR)/1.14
• (TOL)/2.04
• (ETR)/.64
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 0.0 versus -12.6 in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Feb. is estimated at 47.0 versus 47.0 in Jan.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Harker speaking(Mon.), Fed's Bowman speaking(Mon.), Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, (J) investor day, (FOUR) investor day, (COIN) investor meeting, (POWL) annual meeting, Citi Industrial Tech/Mobility Conference, (HI) annual meeting and the Barclays Industrial Select Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk   

• The DOGE subcommittee just discovered $2.7 TRILLION in improper payments in Medicare and Medicaid overseas, to people who should not have gotten it. Well, maybe this explains why the Democrats don’t want @DOGE to investigate. Biggest fraud operation in human history! (video)
• DOD PAID REUTERS $9M FOR "SOCIAL ENGINEERING" PROGRAM DOGE investigations reveal mysterious Defense Department payments to Reuters for "large scale social deception" project between 2018-2022. While DARPA claims it was for cyber defense, questions swirl about why a news agency received millions for "social engineering." Reuters was paid millions of dollars by the US government for “large scale social deception”. That is literally what it says on the purchase order! They’re a total scam. Just wow. (pic)
• Washington DC searches for "lawyer' have increased 400% (data from Google trends). Interesting. (graph) 
• If ANY judge ANYWHERE can stop EVERY Presidential action EVERYWHERE, we do NOT live in a democracy.

• @catturd2

• THEY LIED: COVID NOW OFFICIALLY LESS DEADLY THAN THE FLU—JUST LIKE "CONSPIRACY THEORISTS" SAID ALL ALONG! It was never about public health—it was about control. The CDC’s latest data confirms it: COVID-19 now has a LOWER mortality rate than seasonal flu. Yet, for years, governments locked us down, destroyed businesses, and forced experimental vaccines on millions. Why? To panic the population. To push an agenda. To coerce as many people as possible into taking their shots. We tried to warn everyone but we were called grandma killers and horse paste eaters. We were right about everything.

• @Sultanknish

• How USAID laundered $1.7 Billion to the Taliban. In 2021, the Taliban's bank, controlled by the 'financier of bomb' whose IEDs killed over 1,000 US soldiers showed off millions of dollars in hundred-dollar bills flown in by plane. USAID/State Department denied responsibility.

• @zerohedge

• Huge upward revisions to PPI. Almost as if the previous administration wasn't being exactly honest how bad inflation is. (graph)

• @matt_vanswol

• #BREAKING: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers confirms it has FULLY REMOVED 50% of ALL debris from the right-of-ways in Western North Carolina. They estimate that 100% of all debris in the right-of-ways will be removed by April 1st. WOW!!!!!!! (video)

• @JoshuaSteinman

• Auto insurance rates in the US have increased by 55% over the past 3 years. That's the biggest 3-year spike since 1975-78. We’re paying for all the illegals driving without insurance. (graph)

• @nicksortor

• #BREAKING: A federal judge has just BLOCKED Trump's executive order banning transgender surgery for minors, per ACLU. This is INSANE. Why are these activists HELLBENT on mutilating children??!

• @WideAwakeMedia

• "They're shutting down the food supply worldwide." "They are saying, to reach our carbon goals, we're going to destroy the ability to produce beef, chicken, eggs, and fish." "This is an act of war against humanity." (video)

• @LaraLogan

• What could possibly go wrong? (pic)

• @MarioNawful

• IRON DOME FOR AMERICA: SDA ACCELERATES MISSILE DEFENSE SATELLITE NETWORK. The U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) is rapidly aligning its Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) with the Trump administration’s "Iron Dome for America" initiative, aimed at defending against hypersonic and ballistic missile threats. A new industry call seeks input on integrating SDA’s satellite network into the system, with a 60-day study contract set for award.

• @BennyJohnson

• EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announces that $20 billion in taxpayer funds were just discovered, laundered into in external financial institutions managed by agents of the Biden Admin to finance left wing NGOs. “$7 billion was sent to an entity called the Climate United Fund.” But Zeldin has now clawed back the money and referred the case to the Department of Justice. Boom. (video)

• @5149jamesLi

• California is about to spend $500 million to DESTROY a dam that supplies water to 600,000 people — in a fire-prone region. That's right — Gavin Newsom is making sure there's LESS water in a state that's short on water. (thread)

• @WarClandestine

• Wow… Trump just accused Biden of starting the war in Ukraine!  For decades, Russia have been clear that NATO membership for Ukraine was a hard red line, yet Biden pushed for membership anyways, provoking Russia. The Deep State are responsible for this war, not Russia. (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• NEW: El Salvador President Nayib Bukele reacts to activist judges overstepping their authority to hamstring Trump and DOGE. "That’s exactly what judges were doing in El Salvador in 2021… So we impeached them all and then proceeded to fix the country."

• @charliebiello

• Price Increases over last 4 years... CPI Medical Care: +9.1% CPI Apparel: +9.3% CPI New Cars: +19.0% CPI Used Cars: +21.5% CPI Food at home: +23.2% CPI Shelter: +24.7% CPI Food away from home: +25.0% CPI Electricity: +29.6% CPI Gas Utilities: +33.6% CPI Gasoline: +34.9% US Home Prices: +39.4% CPI Transportation: +43.5% CPI Fuel Oil: +44.6% CPI Auto Insurance: +60.9% CPI Dozen Eggs: +238%.

• @chadwick_moore

• The Associated Press has taken over $52 Million of government money. (graph)

• @its_The_Dr

• Georgia was STOLEN in several ways, and here's yet ANOTHER example!! Only 2 addresses were used for over 9,000 ILLEGAL votes casted! This is a violation of GA's election laws!!! So why haven't these people been prosecuted??

• @DineshDSouza

• Maxine Waters: “We don’t know what all they have on us.” (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.0 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.4 -.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.3 +.04%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.33%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Plunging Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Diminishing Tariff Worries, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 +.43%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.08%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.4 euros/megawatt-hour -7.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.9 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.1 +3.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.0 -1.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(370 of 500 reporting) +11.0% -.5 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.94 +.14:  Growth Rate +16.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.80% -6.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.33 -.24: Growth Rate +30.7% unch., P/E 34.3 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 unch.
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.70 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 21.5 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.94% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.2% -1.5 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.81% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 85.2% (-4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 58.9%(-7.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +24 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +4.5% 2) Gambling +3.3% 3) Video Gaming +2.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CSAI, GRAL, SOC, BROS, HIMS, CRSR, CROX, APP, PGY, DNOW, ROOT, PZZA, INOD, IRDM, TEM, ANAB, GEL, ASND, HIMX, SERV, GRRR, HOOD, MTW, SMMT, LECO, MYGN, PTON, ASTS, INTC, OGN, EEFT, ZETA, AEIS, GEHC, WFRD, SCI, WGS, CZR, U, IAC, BKSY, CYBR, EHTH, TAP, SMCI, RIOT, COIN, TDOC, UNFI, NVMI, BNTX, CEVA, TYL, TECX, VTR, UPWK, PBI, TRU, CHEF, BILI, SW, ALKS, AM, EC, SONY, HCSG, HUBS, CVS, GMAB, FCX, THC, KSPI, EXEL, SHOO, ARM, PHR, EOLS, HRMY, CLF, WMB, RGLD, ES, TSLA, ADTN, MCY, TSEM, SHOP, HTHT, ALB, BAM, QDEL, CPNG, ST, CAR, QDEL, BIIB, BXMT, ST, MCO, TGS, ROL, ATHM, BWIN and QFIN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TTD 2) BROS 3) PZZA 4) APP 5) CRSR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BROS 2) APP 3) HOOD 4) MGM 5) CROX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) MSTY 3) SMH 4) IGF 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AEM)/1.17
• (AXL)/-.11
• (FTS)/.56
• (MGA)/1.52
• (MRNA)-2.68
• (THS)/.97
  

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Dec. 
• The Import Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in Dec.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in Dec.
• Capacity Utilization for Jan. is estimated to rise to 77.7% versus 77.6% in Dec.
• Manufacturing Production for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.6% gain in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Dec. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDP Now Q1 update, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the ASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST