Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 5,765.0 -3.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 42,856.8 -2.5%

• NASDAQ 18,218.3 -3.6%

• Russell 2000 2,079.0 -3.9%

• NYSE FANG+ 12,075.7 -6.3%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 177.2 -2.9%

• Wilshire 5000 56,936.4 -3.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,804.9 -4.2%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,862.9 -2.4%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 902.40 -1.7%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 234.4 -2.2%
  

• NYSE Technology 5,292.3 -2.7%

• Transports 15,599.3 -2.5%

• Utilities 990.15 -1.5%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 139.9 +.8%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.34 +2.9%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 221.4 -.3%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 117.0 -.1%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 536,208 -.5%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.7 -9.3%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -142 +311

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -22.2 +8.6%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 171,198 -13.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,768,799 +.9%

• Total Put/Call .90 -1.1%

• OEX Put/Call 1.09 +47.9%

• ISE Sentiment 129.0 -14.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .69 -3.75%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.2 -4.2%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 -24.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -18.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 24.0 +23.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.84 -50.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 24.99 +36.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.85 +6.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.12 +.1%

• Smart Money Flow Index 21,198.7 -4.6%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  75.0 -12.9

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.025 Trillion +.7%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$4.622 Million

• AAII % Bulls 19.3 -.5%

• AAII % Bears 57.1 -5.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 16.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -3.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 301.07 -1.6%

• Crude Oil 69.93/bbl. -4.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 211.11 -5.5%

• Natural Gas 4.37 +11.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.97 euros/megawatt-hour -9.8%
  

• Heating Oil 221.3 -6.2% 
• Newcastle Coal 108.0 (1,000/metric ton) +10.2%
  

• Gold 2,906.7 +1.7%
• Silver 32.4 +3.9%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 427.7 +4.1%

• Copper 471.3 +4.0%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 372.0 USD/Metric Tonne +4.2%

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,425.0 USD/metric tonne -.5%

• CME Lumber  665.0 +4.5%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,450.08 -.6%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 305.0 USD/Short Ton +4.3%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast -2.41% -93.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.3% +1.8 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.28 -7.8%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 878.3 +67.1%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $105.0 Billion ($686.27 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$50.0 Billion
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.5% +.1 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.76 +.53:  Growth Rate +12.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 -.5
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.65% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% +.6 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 408.48 -.88: Growth Rate +18.1% -14.3 percentage points, P/E 29.6 -1.3
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.4 +9.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.6 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.0 -1.0 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 5.0%(-3.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 95.0%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 3/19
  

• US Dollar Index 103.9 -3.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,755.6 +.8%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 88,217.0 -6.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.4 +2.6%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 30.5 +7.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.31% +9.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.710 Trillion -.1%
  
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.647 Billion +28.0%
• Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $.79 Billion -25.5%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.73 +4.0%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 238.44 +9.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 112.0 -1.0 basis point
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.5 +2.0%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.8 unch.
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 174.3 -3.1%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 81.54 -.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.6 +5.0%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 +.3%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.3 +2.3%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.1% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.2% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.99% -12.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -4.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.75 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.58 +5.4%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 206.0 +10.2% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 205.0 +27.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 57.61 +.3%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 131.91 -2.0%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 158.15 +.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 132.0 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 587.0 -2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .48 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,321.4B +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 224,250 +.1%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.9 +4.6%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.7% -30.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 242,200 +20.4%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.1% +20.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +0.0% -9.0 percentage points
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $207.7M n/a

• Nationwide Gas $3.11/gallon -.00/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,286.0 +4.6%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,540.7/40 ft Box -3.4%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,211.1 -3.2%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.7%
  
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 65.5 +5.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 285,774 +7.7%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,576,197 -3.2%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -2.9%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -5.6%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +4.4%

• Telecom +3.9%
• Homebuilding +2.8%
  

• Foods +2.7%
  

• Shipping +2.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Airlines -7.7%
  

• Education -7.8%
  

• Computer Hardware -8.9%

• Banks -9.1%
  

• Gambling -9.4%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)

• MLNK, HE, GO, GMY, AVTR, MRNA, WBA, FLGT, CPB, BAH, DG, BILI, MYE, PARA, CAG, MARA, CELC, EXPD, SJM, VAL, RKT, RNPH, GIS, CNH, JKHY, CNH, BIIB, APGE, VZ, MCD and DRD

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (63)

• MRX, TKO, HSBC, SRAD, BAM, KKR, CVNA, DSP, HOOD, ALGT, MLM, AJG, MRVL, SPOT, AFRM, KGS, DKNG, BYD, ISRG, ESC, ATGE, TYL, VMC, ATGE, SEI, MELI, EXP, COHU, KNX, GRND, DAL, CMG, DECK, FLUT, AS, NET, CRS, ROKU, CRWD, UAL, GRAL, ESTC, VSCO, TEAM,  COO, ONON, GWRE, COST, RH, BURL, VFC, SWBI, CFLT, WAY, LRN, ARCT, RDDT, HPE, IOT and GRRR

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Fed's Powell Commentary, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.0 euros/megawatt-hour +4.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.4 -1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.6 -4.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.0 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.5% +.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.76 +.12:  Growth Rate +12.4% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.65% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% +.6 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 408.48 +.20: Growth Rate +18.1% -.7 percentage point, P/E 29.0 -1.0
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 -20.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 unch.
• US Yield Curve 31.25 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.41% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.3% +1.9 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 66.4% (+16.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 56.6%(+8.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +301 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/utility/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BNTX)/.41

After the Close: 

• (ASAN)/-.01
• (ORCL)/1.49
• (MTN)/6.29
  

Economic Releases

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index, CB Employment Trends Index for Feb., Cantor Fitzgerald Tech Conference, Deutsche Bank Media/Internet/Telecom Conference, BofA Leisure/Transport Conference, Citi Consumer Conference, Barclays Healthcare Conference, Stifel Tech Conference, Jefferies Biotech on the Bay Summit, JPMorgan Industrials Conference and the Leerink Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.5 +1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 48.75 +2.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.43 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.0 -.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.5 -1.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.76%

• S&P 500 futures +.31%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.45%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by tech and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.