Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.256 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 47.75 -1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.0 +.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.8 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Inflation Concerns, FANG+ Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.1 -3.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.4 +2.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.55 -.55:  Growth Rate +12.3% -.2 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.60% -4.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 410.74 +.18: Growth Rate +18.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.2 +.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .03 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 31.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.41% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.4% -2.9 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.46% -37.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 70.4% (+9.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 57.2%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +211 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.3% 2) Foods -1.1% 3) Telecom -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IMXI, NEO, GMED, AAL, TCMD, EH, UAL, MT, PTGX, XPEV, ABM, EMBC, XP, BVS, OMCL, HSAI, AVTR, VNET, MLYS and BCAX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GRPN 2) XP 3) PATH 4) ARCC 5) TER

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IRBT 2) SEAT 3) MOMO 4) ZYXI 5) SFIX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) IGV 3) SMH 4) KRE 5) IYW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +2.6% 2) Oil Service +1.8% 3) Banks +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GRPN, AAOI, IONQ, TLN, SEI, VKTX, INOD, VIST, UNFI, VST, IOT, GEO, AMTM, TSLA, ONTO, RKT, NBIS, SMMT, CENX, HOOD, CRDO, GPCR, UCTT, CIVI, GPCR, KGS, CASY, PINS, PLTR, IBTA, SD, RDDT, GEV, ZYME, BWLP, NVDA, MTSI, IBTA, DUOL, RDFN, IESC, SOFI, PAM, NVMI, NRG, DTM, VERX, IESC, SPOT, BEAM, NTGR, AFRM, PKX, RH, ORCL, SITM, CRWD, DFS, UPST, PR, PCOR, PHR, SHOP, GCMG, CRGY, NOW, ETN, FHN, MGNI, TECK, GKOS, BANC, ASM, SONY, CRH, BEAM, INTC, FWRG, CDRE, COF, ICLR, WVE, GKOS, COF, FWRG, SM, SYF, KKR, CMRE, APH, LQDA and NTNX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ALIT 2) MATV 3) SFIX 4) ONDS 5) FCEL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GRPN 2) CASY 3) PLTR 4) VST 5) APP

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) MSTY 4) JTEK 5) VGT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DG)/1.51
• (GIII)/.97
• (WB)/.39
  

After the Close: 

• (BLNK)/-.17
• (DOCU)/.85
• (PD)/.16
• (SMTC)/.32
• (ULTA)/7.13
• (ZUMZ)/.80
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Jan.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225K versus 221K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1888K versus 1897K prior.
  

12:00 pm EST

• Household Change in Net Worth for 4Q.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 30Y T-Bond auction, IEA monthly report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, UBS Consumer/Retail Conference, JPMorgan Industrials Conference, (FFIV) annual meeting, (MELI) analyst meeting, (CHEF) investor day, (A) annual meeting and the (FAST) analyst day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +17.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.8 -.9
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 40.8% of Issues Advancing, 56.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .98 +19.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$1.6M
  
• 6 New 52-Week Highs, 80 New Lows
• 34.8% (+.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 31.0 -1.5

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.2 +.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 232.2 +1.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,914.0 +1.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 17.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 23.0 -23.6%
  
• Vix 26.1 -3.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +4.4%