Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ASO)/1.83
• (CMC)/.29
• (DRI)/2.80
• (FDS)/4.17
• (JBL)/1.83
• (PDD)/19.85
• (SCVL)/.43
• (TITN)/-.63
  

After the Close: 

• (FDX)/4.56
• (LEN)/1.70
• (MU)/1.43
• (NKE)/.30
• (ACN)/2.81
• (JKS)/-3.01
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The 4Q Current Account Deficit is estimated at -$330B versus -$310.9B in 3Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 224K versus 220K the prior week.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for March is estimated to fall to 9.0 versus 18.1 in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Feb. is estimated to decline -.2% versus a -.3% decline in Jan.
• Existing Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 3.95M versus 4.08M in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (DIS) annual meeting, (ROAD) general meeting, Oppenheimer Healthcare MedTech/Services Conference, Sidoti Small Cap Conference, BofA Industrials Conference and the TD Cowen Fiber-to-the-Home Symposium could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -20.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.8 +.9
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 64.9% of Issues Advancing, 32.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 +28.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$57.1M
  
• 52 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 39.7% (+2.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.8 +2.1

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 74.7 +.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.2 +1.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,595.2 +.90%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 22.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 20.0 -9.6%
  
• Vix 20.5 -5.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 +11.5%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Congratulations to the @SpaceX and @NASA teams for another safe astronaut return! Thank you to @POTUS for prioritizing this mission! (video)
• The @NASA astronauts stranded in space for more than nine months have splashed down in the Gulf of America. PROMISES MADE, PROMISES KEPT! (video)
• The US should just follow what you did in El Salvador: 1. Impeach all corrupt judges 2. Lock up the criminals 3. Investigate politicians. It is the only way.
• DEI is gone, forever. This divisive and discriminatory practice has no place in our country or our diplomacy. We are restoring meritocracy in everything the
  @StateDept does. 
• This is LITERALLY domestic terrorism. They are attacking @elonmusk and his companies because they don’t like his politics. Democratic leaders as a whole are quiet. It seems the Democratic Party is okay with domestic terrorism as long as it serves their agenda. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• Newly released JFK files reveal that CIA-connected Gary Underhill fled Washington the day after Kennedy’s a*sassination, claiming a small CIA clique was responsible. Less than six months later, he was found dead in his apartment with a gunshot wound behind his ear—an unusual spot for suicide. Despite the circumstances, his death was officially ruled a suicide. (pic)

• @MJTruthUltra

• Elon Musk says ActBlue is a Massive scam, backing James O’Keefe’s probes showing thousands of donations funneled through unsuspecting. Currently, there are 19 state Attorney Generals actively investigating ActBlue for this illegal money laundering donation scheme. AR, CT, FL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY. Why is your state not investigating ActBlue? (video)
• UPDATE: JFK Files. This CIA memo from September 24, 1963, shows Lee Harvey Oswald was actively being monitored by the CIA at least 59 Days before JFK was Assassinated Oswald made contact with the Soviet Embassy in Mexico City, where he inquired about travel to the USSR. This document hints the CIA might have been using Oswald. His tracked visit, combined with no apparent action despite his Soviet ties, suggests he could’ve been an asset or pawn under surveillance, not just a lone figure. How many times have we heard the CIA or FBI was tracking someone, only for them to commit a heinous act? (pic)
  

• @catturd2

• Wow - read this.

• @MilaLovesJoe

• BREAKING: AUTO PEN SCANDAL: Out of 65 presidential pardons Joe Biden signed, 40-60 were auto penned. In 2005, the Department of Justice said auto pens are fine for administrative documents, but NOT FOR PARDONS.

• @LauraLoomer

• EXCLUSIVE! Chief Judge Boasberg Blocked the deportation of Tren de Aragua gang member’s without disclosing the fact that his daughter works for a 501c3 called “Partners For Justice” that gives criminal illegal aliens and gang members legal advice. I have exclusively uncovered a massive CONFLICT OF INTEREST involving Judge James Boasberg, the chief judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. Judge Boasberg recently made the decision to prevent the deportation of criminal illegal alien gang members on planes out of the country. CONFLICT OF INTEREST EXPOSED!!

• @MarioNawful

• MORGAN STANLEY'S MASSIVE DEI PUSH BACKFIRES, LAWSUITS FROM ALL SIDES. Wall Street giant created the perfect lose-lose scenario—now being sued by both Black employees (underpaid by $50,000+) and white managers (blocked from firing underperformers). Turns out "diversity and inclusion" meant everyone felt equally excluded and mistreated.

• @bennyjohnson

• Incredible. JD Vance goes off for THREE straight minutes on the FAILURE of globalization: He is so good at this. Just watch: "Cheap labor is fundamentally a crutch, and it's a crutch that inhibits innovation." (video)

• @ImMeme0

• BREAKING: Colorado Democrats REJECTED a bipartisan bill and chose to protect RAP*STS over CHILDREN. HB25-1073, which would have required prison time instead of probation for rap*sts, was shut down by Democrats. Under current law, s*xual predators can receive just 10 to 20 years to life on probation. The bill sought to impose indeterminate prison sentences from 2 to 4 year in prison to life for anyone convicted of these horrific crimes against minors. DISGUSTING! (video)

• @PeterSweden7

• They are poisoning your milk now. Cows are being fed Bovaer to reduce their farts and stop climate change. But the chemical they use is toxic and suspected of damaging fertility or the unborn child. Why is this allowed???

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.0 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 48.0 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.9 -.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.3 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Concerns, Geopolitical Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 +6.7%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.0 +.50%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.8 -.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.8 +1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.79 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.4 +5.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 136.0 -47.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -17.4%

• NYSE Arms .78 +18.2%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$282.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.3 +.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.9 +.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 236.0 +10.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.3 -.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 135.0 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 basis points -3.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.3 -.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.7 +.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 83.5 +1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.75 basis point -2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.25 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 599.0 +2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 55.0 +2.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.3 +6.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.2 +1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.0 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +6.1% n/a
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.52 +.02:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.2 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.55% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 411.85 +.18: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.7 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 +8.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 24.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.76% +30.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.1% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 82.5% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 55.3%(+.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -190 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -2.5% 2) Digital Health -2.2% 3) Gambling -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IT, QBTS, OSW, NVMI, YY, NCLH, ETON, HOOD, ZK, SE, VIK, EVER, HSAI, BEKE, WRBY, RDDT and SRPT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HSAI 2) CTSH 3) FND 4) LAZR 5) EXE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) XLV 2) XLI 3) BOTZ 4) KRE 5) XBI

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1)  2) XLC 3) XBI 4) KRE 5) KBE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +1.1% 2) Gold & Silver +1.0% 3) Healthcare Providers +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FINV, HROW, TME, MRP, DRD, ALHC, AMRC, MTSR, SEI, RIVN, VVX, LZMH, ASTH, HNRG, MBC, LZMH, MYRG, INR, CNX, SITM, RDW, BTU, AU, DB, EDU, ARIS, RDW, GFI, CNR, DYN, IPGP, PPTA, NWG,  SKE and TIGO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SAN 2) BECN 3) TME 4) CWH 5) AGI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FINV 2) HROW 3) MUX 4) BTU 5) SYNX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) IGV 3) SHLD 4) XLU 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume