Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 5,686.7 +2.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 41,317.4 +3.0%

• NASDAQ 17,977.7 +3.4%

• Russell 2000 2,020.7 +3.2%

• NYSE FANG+ 12,838.3 +4.1%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 167.9 +4.4%

• Wilshire 5000 56,214.0 +3.2%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,802.8 +3.5%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,823.6 +2.5%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 902.4 +1.1%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 230.7 +.5%
  

• NYSE Technology 5,384.4 +4.7%

• Transports 14,119.5 +4.7%

• Utilities 1,041.3 +1.7%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 135.42 +2.3%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 45.10 +3.7%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 214.41 +.55%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 122.2 +.03%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 540,489 +.72%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 -1.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 185 +85

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -19.3 -24.8%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 170,955 +16.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,860,519 -3.0%

• Total Put/Call .81 -3.7%

• OEX Put/Call .90 +12.5%

• ISE Sentiment 114.0 -28.0

• NYSE Arms .95 -25.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.5 +3.3%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.16 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.42 +49.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 22.6 -8.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .96 -27.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 32.8 -5.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.94 +3.11%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.78 +1.7%

• Smart Money Flow Index 21,664.4 +1.6%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  59.9 +19.2

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.908 Trillion -.06%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$3.240 Million

• AAII % Bulls 20.9 -4.6%

• AAII % Bears 59.3 +6.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) +8.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 289.49 -2.8%

• Crude Oil 58.1/bbl. -8.03%

• Reformulated Gasoline 201.5 -4.3%

• Natural Gas 3.64 +22.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +3.5%
  

• Heating Oil 199.1 -8.3% 
• Newcastle Coal 102.8 (1,000/metric ton) +9.0%

• Gold 3,232.9 -2.7%
• Silver 32.05 -3.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 436.2 -1.3%

• Copper 467.7 -3.3%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 337.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.7%

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,500.0 USD/metric tonne -2.3%

• CME Lumber  582.0 +1.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,444.0 -2.0%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 317.5 USD/Short Ton unch.

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.1% +360.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.7% +3.4 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.27 -14.7%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 398.5 +203.4%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.7 +.7%
  
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $160.0 Billion($1,045.75 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(357 of 500 reporting) +13.3% -4.3 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.82 +.39:  Growth Rate +11.9% -.2 percentage point, P/E 20.3 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.38% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% -14.1 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.82 +5.87: Growth Rate +22.6% +1.7 percentage points, P/E 30.4 +1.4
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.9 -13.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +3.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.6 +10.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 1.8%(-8.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 98.2%(+8.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 5/7

• US Dollar Index 100.07 +.38%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,788.0 +.79%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 97,126.5 +3.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.0 +.3%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -.78%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 47.5 -2.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.31% +5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.661 Trillion -.27%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.329 Billion +13.5%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.4 +.6%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 282.6 -1.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 -1.0 basis point
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.5 -1.4%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.6 -2.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 181.9 -.4%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 104.6 +1.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.4 -6.1%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.69 -.57%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.7 -1.5%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.4% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.2% 
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% +7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.34% -1.0 basis point
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.03% -20.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -3.75 basis points -5.0 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.25 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.2 -3.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 294.0 +4.6% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 287.0 +33.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 69.4 -2.1%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.2 -2.9%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 197.7 +2.2%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 157.0 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 643.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .75 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.1% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,403.3B +.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 226,000 +2.5%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% +10.0 basis points
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 59.0 -4.6%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.82% -8.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 223,700 -4.2%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.7% -30.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +8.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $197.6M -8.3%

• Nationwide Gas $3.18/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,411.0 +2.8%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,091.4/40 ft Box -3.1%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,121.1 +.91%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 +23.1%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 70.3 +6.9%

• Rail Freight Carloads 268,694 -1.1%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,743,730 +24.6%
  

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +4.1%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +2.5%

Leading Sectors

• Education +15.0%

• Software +8.4%
• Networking +7.2%

• Airlines +7.2%
  

• Construction +5.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Healthcare Providers +.7%
  

• Foods -.2%
  

• Energy -.2%

• Telecom -.5%
  

• Gold & Silver -3.6%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (83)

• CPS, ADPT, PONY, TRUP, PRDO, IRTC, FLGT, DUOL, RGTI, ASTS, SMMT, BTSG, DXCM, LQDA, IONQ, CART, EXAS, BJRI, FIVE, SVV, HIMS, EH, SAIA, MBX, PSIX, TEX, SNCY, PRLB, ARCB, ATEC, W, SKWD, BZH, DAL, FTDR, SPOT, NCLH, ATI, LAUR, QXO, MAZE, BEN, SHAK, UPST, XHR, GTX, ATGE, PINS, CNI, KEX, CRS, NVO, BHVN, RBLX, LMB, AAL, PLMR, IDCC, HSAI, SNDR, META, CUBE, SWK, HUT, MPWR, CPT, URI, LRN, RXST, JBGS, GEHC, EA, ORCL, BPMC, AMH, OLN, DRS, ITT, EQNR, MRX, NFG, HLN, TROW, TSM, CP, ALKS, H and CSTM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (25)

• MGA, MHK, OHI, ABR, SM, TTWO, HR, GLNG, PRO, ROKU, HUN, HOLX, TEAM, MSI, GDDY, TDS, WLK, CRTO, WK, LMAT, CYTK, SEM, XYZ and TREE

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, US Global Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.12% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% +10.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +2.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.9 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +11.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.6 +1.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(357 of 500 reporting) +13.3% -.8 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.82 +.24:  Growth Rate +11.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.38% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% -3.4 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.82 +1.48: Growth Rate +22.6% +.5 percentage point, P/E 30.4 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.16 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.42 +45.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.7 unch.
• US Yield Curve 48.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.1% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.7% -3.9 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.04 -13.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 65.8% (+24.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 55.6%(+11.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +390 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +146 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BNTX)/-2.27
• (CMI)/4.91
• (FRPT)/.10
• (HSIC)/1.11
• (ON)/.50
• (TSN)/.83
• (ZBH)/1.77
  

After the Close: 

• (BRBR)/.53
• (BWXT)/.76
• (CE)/.38
• (CLX)/1.55
• (FANG)/4.18
• (ETD)/.46
• (F)/.00
• (FN)/2.50
• (HIMS)/.12
• (IAC)/-.65
• (MAT)/-.10
• (PLTR)/.13
• (PLYA)/.36
• (TDW)/.63
• (VRTX)/4.25
• (VNO)/.54
• (WMB)/.57
• (BCC)/1.31
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• Final S&P Global US Composite PMI reading for April.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for April is estimated to fall to 50.2 versus 50.8 in March. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 3Y T-Note auction, Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Assoc. for Research in Vision/Ophthalmology Meeting, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference, (HUBB) annual meeting, (UBER) annual meeting, (LLY) annual meeting, (NVR) annual meeting and the Barclays Select Franchise Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• The @DOGE team is making a real difference fixing broken software, computer and communications systems in the government. It is difficult to convey with words just how messed up the systems are! Tech Support is sorely needed.
• BREAKING: Illegal migrant kiIIs Texas dad in front of his family. He was able to stay here despite 2 prior kiIIs + prior arrests. (video) 
• Democrats allowed 20 million illegal immigrants to walk into the country with NO process. Now, they want President Trump to give these people who broke the law YEARS of "due process" before he can send them back home. Americans are SICK of this. (video)

• @ZeroHedge

• 'Very, Very Wrong': Expert Warns China Showing Signs Of 'End-Of-Regime Conduct'.
• Hegseth Threatens Iran Over Houthi Support: 'You Will Pay'.
• US House Passes Resolution To Stop California From Banning Gas-Powered Cars. 
• Walmart Increases Support For USA-Made Products.
• Amazon Announces $4 Billion Rural Delivery Network, Estimates 100,000 New Jobs.
• May-Day, May-Day, May-Day For Bonds & Bullion; Yay-Day For Big-Tech & Bitcoin.

• @MarioNawful

• U.S. ARMY GOES FULL DRONE MODE AFTER WATCHING UKRAINE. The Army saw Ukraine’s war, said “Whoa,” and is now turning into a flying robot army with 1,000 drones per division. They’ve been testing swarms of buzzing drones that spy, deliver supplies, and blow stuff up—all while soldiers sit back and watch from a tablet like it’s Call of Duty: Real Life Edition. General Randy George says they’re not asking for more money—just tossing out ancient gear like Humvees, light tanks, and even some helicopters to pay for a $36 billion high-tech upgrade. They want zero parts from China, more lasers, better battlefield Wi-Fi, and fewer people getting blown up. Basically: fewer boots, more bots, no boomers.
• TRUMP: WE’RE SHUTTING DOWN IRAN’S OIL DEALS—STARTING NOW! "ALERT: All purchases of Iranian Oil, or Petrochemical products, must stop, NOW! Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary Sanctions. They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form. Thank you for your attention to this matter, PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP!"
• TECH STOCKS ROAR BACK ON AI HYPE. Microsoft’s AI is getting so good, it’s now doing more of the work than ever—16% of its cloud growth came from AI magic this quarter. Last time? Just 13%. Upgrade unlocked. Meta’s using AI to vacuum up ad cash like a Roomba on Red Bull, even while Trump’s trade tantrums keep messing with the global economy. Investors freaked out—in a good way—and went shopping. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom? All up. Apple? Still grounded after a court said, “Nice try” on App Store changes. Microsoft soared 8.7%, Meta jumped 4.5%, and AI stocks partied like it’s 2029. 
• U.S. SAYS BIG INSURANCE RAN A MEDICARE BRIBE FEST. The Justice Department just dropped a bomb on the healthcare world—accusing top insurers of turning Medicare sign-ups into a dirty money game. CVS’s Aetna, Humana, and Elevance allegedly handed brokers hundreds of millions in shady kickbacks to push seniors into their Medicare Advantage plans. And it wasn’t just the insurers—brokers like eHealth, GoHealth, and SelectQuote are also in the hot seat for playing middleman in the scheme. The feds say it’s all a massive fraud under the False Claims Act. Translation: this wasn’t “marketing”—it was a multi-million dollar hustle.
• UBER TO DEPLOY THOUSANDS OF ROBOTAXIS — BECAUSE HUMANS ARE OVERRATED. Uber’s teaming up with May Mobility to drop thousands of self-driving Toyota vans on U.S. streets, starting in Arlington, Texas, by late 2025. Think Uber but without the awkward small talk. These robotaxis will start with human safety drivers (because, ya know, “trust issues”) before going fully driverless. It’s Uber’s latest move to beat Tesla’s Cybercab and Lyft in the robotaxi race. Good luck with that. The U.S. government’s cool with it — as long as the bots play by the rules and report their whoopsies.
• JD VANCE: IF THE PRESIDENT CAN’T DEPORT ILLEGAL CRIMINALS, “HE’S NOT ALLOWED TO BE PRESIDENT”. "The judge doesn’t decide if the Alien Enemies Act applies—the President does. Biden let in millions, and now we’re being blocked from deporting them. If you tell the President he can’t deport illegal criminals, you’re saying he can’t be President. We reject that, and so will the Supreme Court. We were elected to fix this, and we will." (video)
• ELON: ONLY 10–15¢ ON THE DOLLAR REACHES RECIPIENTS—THE REST GETS STOLEN IN D.C. "Even if you agree with supporting alpaca farmers in Peru, most of the money never makes it there. It goes into the pockets of people in D.C. The GAO estimated only 10 to 15 cents on the dollar reaches the recipient. There's layer after layer of stealing—like peeling an onion." (video)
• ELON: FRAUD ALWAYS STARTS SMALL, THEN THEY RENT STADIUMS. “Generally, the fraud starts out small and they try to hide it. But then, year after year, if nobody stops the fraud, it gets more and more brazen. And every year it gets bigger—until they’re literally renting out stadiums, like in the millions, just to run the fraud.” (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• EXCLUSIVE. Alex Wong, the Chinese Deputy National Security Advisor appointed by President Trump, who is at the center of the Signalgate scandal, is married to U.S. Attorney Candice Chiu Wong, a Chinese Woman who was one of the key attorneys involved in PROSECUTING J6ers. Alex Wong was appointed by President Trump on 11/22/24 to serve as the Assistant to the President and the Principal Deputy National Security Advisor under @MikeWaltz47 Mike Waltz, the newly appointed US National Security Advisor. SCALP.

• @TheTranscript

• $AAPL CEO @tim_cook: "For the June quarter, we do expect the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. will have India as their country of origin. Vietnam to be the country of origin for almost all iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods products sold in the U.S. China would continue to be the country of origin for the vast majority of total product sales outside the U.S."
• $AAPL CEO: "Today we are reporting $95.4 billion in revenue, up 5% from a year ago, and at the high end of the range we provided last quarter...Services revenue was $26.6 billion, up 12% year-over-year". 
• $AAPL Apple Inc. Q1 25 Segment & Regional Sales: By Category:  • iPhone: +1.9% to $46.8B  • Mac: +6.7% to $7.9B  • iPad: +15.1% to $6.4B  • Wearables, Home & Accessories: –4.9% to $7.5B  • Services: +11.6% to $26.6B By Geography:  • Americas: +8.2% to $40.3B  • Europe: +1.4% to $24.5B  • Greater China: –2.3% to $16.0B  • Japan: +16.6% to $7.3B  • Rest of Asia Pacific: +8.4% to $7.3B
  
• $AMZN CEO: "Moving next to our AWS segment, revenue was $29.3 billion in Q1, an increase of 17% year over year. AWS now has an annualized revenue run rate of more than $117 billion". (graph) 
• $AMZN Amazon Q1 25 Segment Highlights: Net sales growth: —North America: +8 % —International: +5% —AWS: +17% —Consolidated: +9%.
• Amazon double beat. CEO @ajassy: "We’re pleased with the start to 2025". $AMZN: -4% AH. (details)

• @bennyjohnson

• BREAKING: DNI Tulsi Gabbard is investigating Dr. Fauci for perjury and his role in funding Wuhan gain-of-function research tied to COVID-19. Justice is coming. (video)

• @DC_Draino 

• Holy crap. The Biden-appointed judge who ruled Border Patrol needs a warrant to arrest illegal aliens makes millions of dollars from illegal aliens living in her husband’s real estate projects. You can’t make this up! Investigate this woman for making $$ off her insane rulings. (video)

• @JimFerguson

• UKCATHERINE AUSTIN FITTS EXPOSES THE GLOBALIST PLAN: “THIS ISN’T A RESET — IT’S A TAKEOVER”. Former Bush administration official Catherine Austin Fitts isn’t staying silent. “The Great Reset is NOT about helping you — it’s about controlling you.” As former Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, she’s seen the machinery of power up close — and now she’s warning the world. THIS ISN’T A THEORY — IT’S A BLUEPRINT FOR GLOBAL TYRANNY. WHAT THIS MEANS:

• @MJTruthUltra 

• I can’t believe Texas is actually debating on whether or not to Jail Americans for Posting Political memes. Democrats allowed millions of illegal alien criminal cartels into the US, and now they’re afraid to be criticized for doing it… listen. (video)Quot@DerrickEvans4WVBREAKING: Former Georgia Democratic House candidate Carl Sprayberry, who publicly called for the assass!nation of President Trump has been arrested as part of a sweeping, multi-agency child s3x trafficking operation.

• @sheislaurenlee

• BREAKING: HHS will require that ALL new vaccines be tested in placebo-controlled trials before they’re licensed for use. “Under Secretary Kennedy’s leadership, all new vaccines will undergo safety testing in placebo-controlled trials prior to licensure — a radical departure from past practices,” HHS said in a statement. This is a MASSIVE step forward for ensuring our vaccines are TRULY “safe and effective.”

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.0 -2.0 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 60.0 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 -.37%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.4 +1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.24% +2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.1 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.2%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.56%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Global Trade Deal Hopes, US Economic Data, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.8 -3.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .93 -66.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.2 +1.7% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 -.55%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.43 +1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.63 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.1 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 163.0 +65.0

• Total Put/Call .81 -1.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 -13.2%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$120.8M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 -.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 476.6 -3.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 279.0 +4.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.1 -1.5%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.0 -.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 112.0 basis points -1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.7 -.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 200.6 +1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 105.2 -.74%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.7 +.16%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.75 basis points +.25 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -7.75 basis point -1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 160.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 643.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 76.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.97 +.02% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.23% +6.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.1 euros/megawatt-hour -.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.9 -4.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.9 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.7 +1.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(325 of 500 reporting) +14.1% +.5 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.58 +.01:  Growth Rate +11.8% -.3 percentage point, P/E 20.4 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.38% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +32.5% -10.7 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 422.34 +.72: Growth Rate +22.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 30.1 +1.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.22 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .97 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.7 -.1
• US Yield Curve 52.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.1% -130.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 49.6% +2.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.17 +4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 55.0% (-8.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 45.9%(-13.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +650 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +108 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long