Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 5,951.4 +5.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 42,660.0 +3.4%

• NASDAQ 19,204.4 +7.1%

• Russell 2000 2,113.3 +4.5%

• NYSE FANG+ 13,624.4 +7.5%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 180.7 +8.5%

• Wilshire 5000 58,897.7 +5.2%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,037.1 +6.9%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,876.4 +3.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 903.9 +1.4%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 241.8 +3.8%
  

• NYSE Technology 5,800.6 +7.6%

• Transports 15,172.9 +8.1%

• Utilities 1,040.5 +.9%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 144.74 +4.1%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 46.3 +2.9%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 213.73 +.90%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 122.07 +.21%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 547,224 +.73%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.7 -1.0%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 317 +182

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -19.3 +2.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 175,428 -1.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,982,266 +4.5%

• Total Put/Call .68 -10.7%

• OEX Put/Call 1.63 +58.5%

• ISE Sentiment 152.0 +16.0

• NYSE Arms .77 -10.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.0 +11.8%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 +32.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.21 +10.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -20.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .50 -40.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 19.4 -36.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.61 -8.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.48 -4.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 22,352.7 +.3%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  70.6 -10.5

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.941 Trillion -.07%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$15.972 Million

• AAII % Bulls 35.9 +22.1%

• AAII % Bears 44.4 -13.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 71.0 (GREED) +9.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 295.86 +1.3%

• Crude Oil 62.6/bbl. +2.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 214.4 +1.7%

• Natural Gas 3.34 -12.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.2 euros/megawatt-hour +1.6%
  

• Heating Oil 214.4 +3.5% 
• Newcastle Coal 102.0 (1,000/metric ton) -1.9%

• Gold 3,187.3 -4.1%
• Silver 32.2 -1.5%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 452.1 +1.9%

• Copper 458.5 -1.4%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 343.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,025.0 USD/metric tonne -5.0%

• CME Lumber  601.5 +5.1%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,441.4 +.5%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 317.5 USD/Short Ton unch.

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% +10.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.8 -2.8 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.09 -18.0%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 571.1 -15.6%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.7 -13.5%
  
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $170.0 Billion($1,055.90 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$5.0 Billion
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +11.9% -.4 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.40 +.41:  Growth Rate +12.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.4 +.9
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.34% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.21 +1.31: Growth Rate +23.0% +.4 percentage point, P/E 32.0 +1.9
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.8 -6.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.4 +4.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.6 +3.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 8.6%(-8.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 91.4%(+8.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 6/18

• US Dollar Index 101.1 +.7%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,814.9 +.3%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 103,994.5 -.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.67 -.53%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.60 -1.3%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 46.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.44% +7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.666 Trillion +.04%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.342 Billion -14.5%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.4 -3.4%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 230.0 -11.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 -4.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.0 -2.2%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.2 -6.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 166.3 -6.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 100.6 -5.1%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.8 +1.4%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.94 +.70%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 122.48 +1.37%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.3% -10.0 basis points
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.7% -30.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% -20.0 basis points
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% -1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +2.38% +4.0 basis points
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.87% -26.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +5.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -4.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.5 +1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 55.0 -11.0%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 251.0 -14.0% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 233.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.6 -7.1%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 147.4 -6.3%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 168.5 -11.4%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 617.0 -17.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .64 -7.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.1% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,419.3B +1.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 230,500 +1.4%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.4-.4%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.86% +3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 251,200 +1.1%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.8% -90.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +5.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Box Office Weekly Gross $197.6M n/a

• Nationwide Gas $3.19/gallon +.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,305.0 +.5%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,233.2/40 ft Box +7.6%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,104.9 -.14%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.7%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 59.1 -13.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 273,314 +.1%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,847,304 +34.0%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +6.8%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +3.0%

Leading Sectors

• Computer Hardware +12.3%

• Shipping +10.4%
• Semis +9.9%

• Road & Rail +9.4%
  

• Retail +8.6%
  

Lagging Sectors

• REITs +.6%
  

• Foods -.5%
  

• Telecom -1.5%

• Healthcare Providers -3.9%
  

• Gold & Silver -7.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (41)

• TSSI, QUBT, ACAD, CRWV, SMLR, SERV, LFMD, HUT, QBTS, ACHR, COIN, CDNA, APLS, BILI, HIMS, OSCR, CRSP, GMED, RDFN, RKT, AEVA, TIC, SIBN, MARA, LBRDK, COCO, NBIS, AVTR, PTLO, VIPS, LIF, SEDG, CSIQ, OLLI, AVTR, COOP, DE, LLY, SIMO, MRUS and ZIM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)

• VVX, DOCS, TVTX and GLOB

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on More US-Global Trade Deal Hopes, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Healthcare/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.19% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.44% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.6 -2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.4 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.6 +1.6
  
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +11.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.40 -.01:  Growth Rate +12.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.34% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.21 -.26: Growth Rate +23.0% unch., P/E 32.0 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.21 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.7 -.5
• US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% -.1 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.8% +2.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 +2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 66.9% (+3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 49.8%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +240 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +3 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/technology/utility/financial/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• (AGYS)/.29
• (TCOM)/5.42
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for April is estimated to fall -.9% versus a -.7% decline in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, (CARR) investor day, B. Riley Institutional Conference, (ED) annual meeting, (DKNG) annual meeting and the BofA Ag Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• EXCLUSIVE. Tesla’s RoboTaxi Math Just Broke the Internet. (video)

• @ZeroHedge

• We are aware of the recent social media post by former FBI Director James Comey, directed at President Trump. We are in communication with the Secret Service and Director Curran. Primary jurisdiction is with SS on these matters and we, the FBI, will provide all necessary support.
• The DoD Audit Conundrum: Accountability Over Accounting. 
• Colorado Could Be The Parental Rights Canary In The Coal Mine.
• Montana Becomes Latest State To Ban Lab-Grown Meat.
• Jake Tapper's book tour is the most brazenly fraudulent scam. Tapper today denounces Democrats as "disgraceful" for their "smear campaign" against "heroic" WSJ reporters who reported on Biden's cognitive decline. See video below: it was *Tapper* who smeared the WSJ for that! 
• Meta Stumbles: Delays Release Of Flagship "Behemoth" AI Model Over Performance Concerns.
  
• Defensives Dominate As Gold Pumps, Soft-Data Jumps, Inflation Slumps.

• @MarioNawful

• SPEAKER JOHNSON: COMEY IS EITHER THREATENING TRUMP OR SUGGESTING SOMEONE SHOULD. “President Trump has already survived TWO assassination attempts. Now, former disgraced FBI director James Comey is either threatening to kill Donald Trump or suggesting someone should. This is as outrageous as it is dangerous. Grateful Sec. Noem and FBI Director Kash are looking into this.” (video)
• DNI TULSI GABBARD: COMEY SHOULD BE BEHIND BARS. “Any other person with his influence, his stature, and the way media built him up—people take what he says seriously. I’m very concerned for the president’s life. We’ve already seen assassination attempts. James Comey, in my view, should be held accountable and put behind bars for this.” (video)
• TRUMP: WE WILL HAVE UNPRECEDENTED INVESTMENT IN THE U.S. WITH AI. “We're having numbers that we've never done before. That means AI plants — a really good example is Apple. Apple is now spending much more than $500B on plants." (video)
• MIDDLE EAST MONEY STORMS INTO AMERICA — $1.1T ON THE TABLE. Qatar’s wealth fund just pledged $500 billion into the U.S. economy over the next decade. This comes days after Saudi Arabia dropped a $600B bombshell: future investments in U.S. energy, tech, and defense — plus Aramco shaking hands on 34 deals worth another $90B. Wall Street’s rolling out the red carpet.  
• FOLLOW THE SILENCED — THE UNTOLD STORY OF THE COVID VACCINE. Their injuries were ignored. Their stories were buried. But not anymore. Follow the Silenced is the award-winning documentary from Mikki Willis, TFVC, and React19, uncovering what happened to the early participants in the Covid vaccine trials—and how they came together to demand answers, research, and recognition. Winner of Best Director and Best of Festival at the 2025 Santa Monica International Film Festival, this powerful film is finally premiering worldwide. (video)
• TRUMP OFFICIALS: NO WORK, NO BENEFITS. Trump’s team breaks it down: If you're an able-bodied adult on Medicaid or food stamps, you’ll need to work, train, or volunteer 20 hours a week — or lose benefits. Health Sec. RFK Jr., Mehmet Oz, and others say it’s about “ending dependency” and saving tax dollars. Democrats are calling it cruelty in disguise. 41 million on SNAP — 71 million on Medicaid. The safety net’s not shrinking — it’s getting a work schedule. 
• FDA TO YOUR SNACKS: YOU’RE ON THIN ICE. The FDA just said it’ll finally start reviewing what’s actually in our food — including preservatives and additives banned or flagged overseas. Top targets? BHT, BHA, and azodicarbonamide (the one in yoga mats and sandwich bread). Health Secretary RFK Jr. wants a diet overhaul, seed oil swaps, and a war on synthetic additives. No more “wait and see” — FDA says it’s going proactive. About time too.

• @WallStreetApes

• INSANITY!!! Georgia Governor Brian Kemp SIGNED A PESTICIDE LIABILITY SHIELD. FULL LIABILITY WAIVER protecting pesticide manufacturers, including Bayer (maker of Roundup) from lawsuits. “Bad news coming out of the state of Georgia. The governor there just approved for pesticide liability shield following North Dakota”. “Which means now if you get sick from any chemicals used in growing your food, you can't sue the corporation that made those chemicals to spray on your food. Glyphosate has been proven to cause non Hodgins lymphoma and they've spent billions of dollars in lawsuits already. This is why they want the pesticide liability shield”. (video)
• THERE IT IS!! Here’s how Barack Obama is the reason the cost of healthcare has skyrocketed in America. As soon as Barack Obama, funded by the pharmaceutical companies, signed Obamacare health insurance costs “significantly went up”. (video)

• @HSajwanization

• BREAKING: The world’s tallest building, Burj Khalifa, in Dubai just lit up in the American flag on the occasion of President Trump’s visit tonight to the UAE. (pic)
• This is how the UAE welcomed President Donald J. Trump in Abu Dhabi tonight. (video)

• @KobeissiLetter

• This is truly unprecedented: UnitedHealth stock, $UNH, is now down ANOTHER -16% today, bringing 1-month losses to nearly -60%. This is a Dow 30 component which just erased $400 BILLION of market cap in 1 month. $UNH has now erased ~$18 billion of market cap PER TRADING DAY for the last month-straight. As a result, the company has gone from being one of the top 15 largest public companies in the world to not even making the top 50 list. Can it get any worse for UnitedHealth? (graph)

• @JDunlap1974

• BREAKING : Julian Assange is reportedly seeking a meeting with President Trump to expose further corruption among Democrat elites in Congress and both the Obama and Biden Administrations.

• @iAnonPatriot 

• Donald Trump held 96 rallies in 2024, and CNN only aired the one where he was almost assasslnated. How’s this NOT being investigated..?? (video)

• @unusual_whales

• This is truly egregious. On May 13th, someone put $25 million in premium, 10,000x volume, in United Health, $UNH, $300 puts expiring 09/19/2025. Then news of DOJ investigating for fraud came out. $UNH dropped, and is down 50% in last month. This trader is up $80 million. Unusual. (graph)
• BREAKING: This is unusual trading by a politican. Representative Greg Landsman sold up to $50,000 of United Health, $UNH, on 03/26/2025. Since, $UNH is down 53%, and it was disclosed that the DOJ was investigating $UNH for possible Medicare fraud. He sits on the House Subcommittee of Health. (pic)

• @C_3C_3

• Reminder… Here’s Jim Comey admitting his treason in the Trump Russia coup. Nothing happened him. Now he’s posting Trump threats on IG. Basically laughing at Americans. These traitors need to be punished or it will never stop. No excuses. No mercy. (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• HOLY CRAP... Liberal Justice Kentaji Brown Jackson declares she wants nationwide injunctions because if not, the executive would no longer have to 'move quickly' to reclaim its Article 2 powers... https://x.com/i/status/1923038033776877741/video/1… She is basically saying here that she wants the lower courts to infringe on Article 2 as much as possible because it forces the executive to quickly try to re-claim its authority via the Supreme Court from an activist judge. This line of reasoning is utterly tyrannical and dangerous. It's how republics lose their republic status. (video)

• @ExxAlerts

• BREAKING: A former FBI director wants America to believe he doesn't know what "86" means. (pic)
• BREAKING: Multiple elected and public officials call for the arrest of Former FBI director James Comey for encouraging the ass-ssination of President Trump. (pic)
  

• @catturd2

• Republican in Congress have no idea just how furious we are with them.

• @VigilantFox

• NEW: Miranda Devine torches the Episcopal Church for taking millions in taxpayer money to help illegal immigrants—while turning its back on white South African refugees. She’s calling out the hypocrisy loud and clear. For years, the Episcopal Church received $50 million annually through its partnership with the Biden administration to help resettle illegal border crossers. But when Trump moved to prioritize Afrikaner families fleeing violence in South Africa, the church walked away—refusing to help. Their reason? They claimed helping white South Africans contradicted their “racial justice” values. (video)

• @cb_doge

• JENSEN HUANG: HUMANOID ROBOTS 一 A $50 TRILLION INDUSTRY. "The world is short of workers & declining birth rate, so the world needs a lot of workers. The first use case of humanoid robots will be manufacturing. Robotics is one of the best ways for us to supplement all of that." (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.75 +.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 51.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.64 +.27%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.98 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.0 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.42% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.07%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.12%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deals, Lower Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Utility/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.2 -2.4%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .74 +36.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.1 -1.7% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.61 +.59%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.9 -.73%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.38 +.48%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.0 -2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 162.0 -1.0

• Total Put/Call .70 +1.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.85 +131.2%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$136.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.2 -.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 415.0 +3.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 233.0 -14.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.5 +.6%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 150.0 +2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 100.0 basis points -1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.37 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 170.3 +.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 99.7 +.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 +.02%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.25 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 8.5 basis point -2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.25 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 627.0 -4.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 65.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.12% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% -8.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.37% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.5 -3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.3 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.0 +.2 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.9% -.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.41 +.07:  Growth Rate +12.1% unch., P/E 21.4 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.32% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.47 +.09: Growth Rate +23.0% unch., P/E 32.0 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 -8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.2 -.4
• US Yield Curve 48.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% +.2 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.1% -1.4 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.84 -1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 61.4% (-3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 50.8%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +25 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -8 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +105 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/technology/utility/financial/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long