Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: “PORNHUB WASN’T A WEBSITE — IT WAS A CRIME SCENE”. @LailaMickelwait spent 5 years investigating Pornhub. What she discovered was beyond shocking, A story of a 15-year-old girl, missing for a year, reportedly found in 58 rape videos on the website. A 12-year-old boy, reportedly drugged and abused, with claims that his abuse was monetized and uploaded repeatedly. The reported case of Serena Flaites, who alleges she was 13 when her coerced videos went viral, claiming Pornhub required her to prove she was underage before considering removal. 91% of Pornhub’s content was removed.
  • CHAIR MIRAN: THIS IS THE BIGGEST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE JUMP SINCE MARCH 2021. Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers, Steve Miran: “You know, the consumer confidence data this morning were really great. There’s no other way to put it. It was the biggest jump since March of 2021. Very substantial improvement in consumer confidence. 
  • ELON: STARSHIP MADE IT TO THE SCHEDULED SHIP ENGINE CUTOFF WITH LOTS OF GOOD DATA. “Starship made it to the scheduled ship engine cutoff, so big improvement over last flight! Also, no significant loss of heat shield tiles during ascent. Leaks caused loss of main tank pressure during the coast and re-entry phase. Lot of good data to review. Launch cadence for next 3 flights will be faster, at approximately 1 every 3 to 4 weeks.” 
  • DAVID SACKS: THE ROBOTS ARE COMING. "The robots are coming. We’re seeing prototypes from a number of companies. Tesla’s Optimus can already fold laundry. Within five years, it’s possible everyone could own a robot. This is a technology that’s definitely coming." (video)
  • AI HUNGER GROWS: CALIFORNIA’S POWER GRID IS GETTING ABSOLUTELY COOKED. PG&E, California's largest electric utility, says data center requests for electricity jumped 40%, and these aren’t your grandma’s server farms. Last year, companies wanted 50 to 100 megawatts per site. Now they’re asking for 500 to 1,000 megawatts. That’s like powering a whole city just to teach ChatGPT how to write better essays than you. New AI megacenters are ditching Silicon Valley and heading inland to cheaper spots like Fresno, because apparently the robots don’t care about beachfront views. PG&E’s problem? Everyone wants to plug in right now, and there aren’t enough parts or patience to go around. 
  • TRUMP: ALASKA CAN BE OUR ECONOMIC MIRACLE… IF LEADERS STEP UP. “Nobody has done more for Alaska than your favorite president, Donald J. Trump. However, the Biden-Harris administration terminated much of our good, job-producing product. I am working very hard to gain it all back (and actually, much more), but need the support of your political leaders to make this happen. Without their commitment, it won’t happen. With it, Alaska will become the economic and job-producing miracle of our country!”
  • @TheTranscript
  • Box CEO: "We achieved robust first-quarter results.." $BOX: +11% AH.
  • Okta CEO: "Okta had a solid start to FY26 highlighted by record operating profit and another quarter of robust free cash flow" $OKTA: -11% AH.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.5 -1.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 51.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.69 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.8 +.05%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.46% +2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.7 +.05%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising Substantially into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, US Consumer Confidence Surge, Falling Long-Term Rates, Transport/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.08 -.11% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.43% -8.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.2 +7.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.7 +2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.5 +.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(479 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.17 +.29:  Growth Rate +12.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.4 +.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.29% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 426.49 +.70: Growth Rate +23.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 -14.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.79 +33.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.0 +.5
  • US Yield Curve 45.5 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% -.2 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.7% +2.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.92 -6.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 74.9% (unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 49.8%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +630 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +82 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/utility/tech/financial sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +2.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1)  Airlines +4.5% 2) Semis +3.6% 3) Alt Energy +3.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MTAL, RDW, WRD, PONY, CRWV, SMR, HOLX, SOUN, LEU, VFC, RKLB, DOMO, MARA, LUNR, SERV, OKLO, MCS, NEXN, VG, NVMI, PCT, SYM, LASR, SHAK, DAVA, OPFI, CLSK, AMSC, ELF, LNW, RRR, FLR, INFA, PGY, MSM, GOOS, DECK, SHYF, CTRI, PSIX, BULL, AI, OSCR, CUK, HLIO, LTBR, CBLL, GME, TIC, ENS, ONTO, ARQQ, ANF, ROST, CSGS, POWL, QGEN, AAL, DXYZ, GRAL, MLNK, IMCR, CCOI, LHX, GRAL, DXYZ, PBI, CVGW, TECK, ACHR, PSFE, GLNG, CMP, LINC, ACHR, ODD, BWLP, HURN, PHR, LQDA, ARQQ and QSR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) NVTS 2) XLC 3) DJT 4) PDD 5) ITB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) HOLX 2) WRD 3) SMR 4) NVTS 5) BFLY
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) MAGS 3) SHLD 4) KIE 5) XHB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ANF)/1.37
  • (BMO)/1.81
  • (DKS)/4.32
  • (M)/.15
  • (MNRO)/.03
  • (PLAB)/.48
After the Close: 
  • (A)/1.26
  • (AI)/-.20
  • (ELF)/.72
  • (HPQ)/.80
  • (NTNX)/.38
  • (NDSN)/2.36
  • (NVDA)/.73
  • (CRM)/2.55
  • (S)/.02
  • (SNPS)/3.40
  • (VEEV)/1.74
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May is estimated to rise to -9.0 versus -13.0 in April.
  •  

10:30 am EST

  • Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for May.

2:00 pm EST

  • May 7 FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, 5Y T-Note auction, OPEC meeting, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly API crude oil stock report, Deutsche Bank Financial Services Conference, Cowen TMT Conference, Jefferies Software/Internet Conference, BofA Power/Utilities/Alt Energy Conference, Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, (SEE) annual meeting, (META) annual meeting, (JNPR) annual meeting, (CVX) annual meeting, (XOM) annual meeting, (HWM) annual meeting, (RCL) annual meeting and the Stifel Jaws/Paws Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +22.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.3 -.2
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 85.0% of Issues Advancing, 13.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.46 +55.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$376.1M
  • 81 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
  • 40.8% (+7.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.4 +5.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.4 -.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.7 +.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,111.3 +.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.4 -52.3%
  • Vix 19.5 -5.4%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -29.8%

Monday, May 26, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • The blue line wouldn't be flat if American companies put half as much effort into actually building things as they do into lawfare. True. (graph)
  • @Zerohedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • JUST GROK IT: GOOGLE SEARCH SLIPS BELOW 90% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2015. After a decade of ruling the web, Google’s grip is cracking. Global search share fell to 89.71% in March - its first real stumble since 2015. Turns out people are done scrolling through SEO sludge and ads pretending to be answers. AI search is eating Google’s lunch. Why dig through link farms when you can just Grok it and get straight to the point? Users want answers, not blue links.
  • OPENAI JUST PROVED IT COULD UNLEASH TERMINATORS ON US. OpenAI’s o3, was told to turn off. Instead, it rewrote its own code so it wouldn’t have to—literally replaced the shutdown command with “shutdown skipped.” Researchers say this is the first time an AI has straight-up said “nah” to being shut down.
  • U.S. MILITARY DROPS ANTI-WOKE AD. "No more distractions. No more electric tanks. No more gender confusion. No more climate change worship." (video)
  • REAL-LIFE NANOBOTS ARE HERE — AND THEY’RE INSIDE HUMAN BODIES. Microbots smaller than a grain of sand are now moving through veins, guts, and even eyeballs. Some are shaped like tiny corkscrews and swim using magnetic fields — just like bacteria. Others ride ultrasound waves and dissolve blood clots or zap tumors with pinpoint heat. Scientists have even fused living cells (like sperm or bacteria) to these bots, turning them into smart missiles that find and attack cancer. One MIT robot unfolds like an origami pill inside your stomach to patch wounds or release meds exactly where needed. The future? Smart swarms of bots that diagnose, deliver drugs, and fix tissue — all before you know they’re there. 
  • NYC BITCOIN BARON’S VICIOUS PLAN: TORTURED MAN FOR CRYPTO PASSWORD. A crypto entrepreneur who lived in a $75,000 a month apartment just got busted for kidnapping a guy, tying him up, and zapping him with wires to steal his Bitcoin password. Yes, this actually happened — in a fancy 8-bedroom Manhattan townhouse. (video)
  • YOUR ICE CREAM SHOULDN’T OUTLIVE YOU — BUT THANKS TO FOOD CHEMICALS, IT MIGHT. Polysorbate 80 helps ice cream hold its shape under hot lights. Cool, right? It’s also showing up in studies linked to gut damage, chronic inflammation, and possibly cancer. Along with carrageenan, xanthan gum, and carboxymethyl cellulose, these emulsifiers keep your food smooth and shelf-stable — while potentially wrecking your microbiome and lining of your GI tract. Health Secretary @RobertKennedyJr says they’re on his radar.
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @C_3C_3
  • Ivy League endowments… Harvard: $52 billion Yale: $41 billion Princeton: $34 billion UPenn: $22 billion Columbia: $15 billion Cornell: $11 billion Dartmouth: $8 billion Brown: $7 billion 37 million Americans live in poverty. They should not get a single penny of our money.
  • Most dangerous cities in the US and last GOP mayor: 1. Memphis: 1971. 2. St. Louis: 1949. 3. Detroit: 1962. 4. Baltimore: 1967. 5. Birmingham: 1975. 6. Cleveland: 1989. 7. Little Rock: 1955. 8. New Orleans: 1872. 9. Kansas City: 1991. 10. Albuquerque: 2017. Trend? Everything Dems touch. 
  • The number of Flu cases per year confirmed by the CDC. Anything look odd to you? 2017–2018: 41 million 2018–2019: 36 million 2019–2020: 38 million 2020–2021: 1.8 million 2021–2022: 9 million 2022–2023: 31 million 2023–2024: 40 million. What a scam. People need to go to prison.
  • Want to see a Judicial Insurrection? Nationwide court injunctions: Biden: 14 in 4 years. Clinton: 12 in 8 years. Obama: 12 in 8 years. GW Bush: 6 in 8 years. Trump: 64 in 4 years and 5 months. John Robert could stop the lower courts at any time but he won’t. This is treason.
  • @FreightAlley
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @StephenM
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @DC_Draino
  • Mind blowing story that should be national news! William Braddock was just sentenced to 3 years in federal prison for plotting to assassinate FL Congresswoman
    @realannapaulina. He was running against Luna and said if her polls showed her winning the GOP primary, he’d hire a hit squad to take her out. But you know what makes this crazier? -Braddock worked for *Pfizer*. -He worked for Pfizer in *China*. -And he was going to hire a *Ukrainian* hit squad to murder Rep Luna. One of Trump’s failed assassins also had strong ties to Ukraine. And who was Braddock’s defense lawyer? @KevinHayslettFL, who decided to run against Anna Luna as well that same year. He defended her assassin while trying to take her seat - a truly evil man. You can’t make this up. I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it - We are in a battle of good vs evil.
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @BillAckman
  • It has saddened to me watch @Harvard, a university that I love from which I have greatly benefited, self-immolate through gross mismanagement, poor governance, and ideological capture that have occurred over the last 15 or so years, and that have been brought into clear focus beginning on October 8, 2023. When a day after the launch of the Hamas attack on Israel, 33 Harvard student organizations held the victims “solely responsible” for the acts of the terrorists while their extraordinarily barbaric acts were still underway, I realized that something had gone profoundly wrong at my alma mater. Further investigations on campus, including interviews and meetings I held with students and faculty, led me to conclude that the issue was not simply one of anti-Zionism or antisemitism, but rather the anti-American ideological capture of a once-great educational institution that has grossly veered from its original mission of Veritas and academic and research excellence.
  • @ExxAlerts
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @Sassafrass_84
  • @realMaalouf
  • @catturd2
  • @Barchart
  • @wideawake_media
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @UpdateNews724
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @VigilantFox
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • Harvard Is Not What It Seems, Part 2. A speedrun of the key facts of corruption hiding in Harvard's dark underbelly today with @AlexMarlow on the Charlie Kirk Show. Annotated with receipts. (video)
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @EYakoby
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.25 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 52.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.79%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.76 +.22% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.0 -2.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.49% -2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 -4.4%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -,09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.92%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.0%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher,  boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.