Stocks Reversing Higher into Close on US-Global Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.15% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% +6.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.2 -6.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -1.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(491 of 500 reporting) +12.5% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.84 +.16:  Growth Rate +9.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.26% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +32.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 428.44 +.31: Growth Rate +23.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.8 +.2
• US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.8% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.84 +6.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 75.6% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 55.0%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +329 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -120 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -2.9% 2) Alt Energy -1.8% 3) Homebuilding -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SMMT, MP, CORT, DKNG, NVCR, PONY, SAIC and SLP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) APLD 2) CRH 3) DG 4) XLI 5) CNC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DKNG 2) WEED 3) LDOS 4) LTRY 5) BBAI

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) XLF 3) XLE 4) IBB 5) IYW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +6.1% 2) Steel +3.7% 3) Disk Drives +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VERA, APLD, KYMR, BPMC, TBPH, BNTX, MAZE, CENX, TEM, UPB, LQDA, RGNX, NRIX, BCAX, KALV, CLBR, INOD, GFI, STLD, GRPN, AU, ASND, NUE, TWST, NAGE, BVN, PAAS, MTUS, HROW, SSRM, IMCR, BBNX, HMY, INVX, CIB, ETSY, ZS, CMC, B, INVX, LMND, HROW, MAG, TS, TRML, CRWV, WPM, AGI, HRTG, DOMO, TRML, DNLI, CHWY, AVBP, CAE, EGO, BHVN, RVMD, TX, FROG, NNE, INVA, PLAB, RTO, DRS, UVE, WS, NBR, VRNA, LRN and MRUS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MATX 2) XLI 3) NPWR 4) CLBR 5) UMAC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CLF 2) BPMC 3) KYMR 4) APLD 5) VERA

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) FDN 2) EUAD 3) XLP 4) XLC 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DG)/1.49
• (DCI)/.95
• (NIO)/-2.56
• (OLLI)/.71
• (SIG)/1.00 

After the Close: 

• (ASAN)/.02
• (CRWD)/.66
• (GWRE)/.46
• (HPE)/.33
• (YEXT)/.11
• (CRMT)/.86
• (APPS)/.04 

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for April is estimated to fall -3.2% versus a +3.4% gain in March.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for April.
• JOLTS Job Openings for April is estimated to fall to 7100K versus 7192K in March. 
  

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for May is estimated to fall to 16.0M versus 17.27M in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, TD Cowen Future of the Consumer Conference, BofA Tech Conference, Stifel Industrials Conference,  Maxim Group Virtual Tech Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, (DDOG) annual meeting, (ZS) investor meeting, (EXPE) annual meeting, (BKNG) annual meeting, (GM) annual meeting, American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting and the Baird Consumer Tech/Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.1 -15.1
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 35.2% of Issues Advancing, 62.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .75 -24.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$145.1M
  
• 59 New 52-Week Highs, 41 New Lows
• 37.9% (-5.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.5 -.2

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.3 -.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 237.7 -.11%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,253.4 +.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (GREED) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.0 -29.0%
  
• Vix 18.9 +1.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -7.1%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Ukrainian Drones Strike Four Military Airfields in Russia.
• China Home Sales Slump Drags On as Deflation Eats Into Incomes.
• Japan’s Firms Raised Capital Spending Ahead of US Tariffs.
• UK to Build More Attack Submarines in ‘Message to Moscow’.
• Pro-Trump Nationalist Leads in Poland’s Presidential Election.
• US Calls on Australia to Boost Defense Spending to 3.5% of GDP.
• Samsung Nears Wide-Ranging Deal With Perplexity for AI Features.
• Stocks Drop, Gold Rises in Risk-Off Start to Week.
• Over 3,000 Private Credit Deals From Just 20 Analysts Raise Questions on Wall Street.
• Oil Gains as Geopolitical Concerns Rise, OPEC+ Boosts Supply.
• Gold Climbs as Rising Geopolitical and Trade Tensions Aid Havens.
• Treasury Traders Await Labor Data to Trigger Rate Shifts.
• Big Tech Is Back in S&P 500 Driver’s Seat as Profit Engines Hum.
• Fed’s Waller Outlines Path to Rate Cuts Later This Year.

Zero Hedge: 

• Zelensky Boasts Of 'Absolutely Brilliant' Longest Range Strikes While Kremlin Confirms 'Terrorist Attacks'.
• Will Russia's Retaliation To Ukraine's Strategic Drone Strikes Decisively End The Conflict?
• Trump Admin Shuts Down Massive $66 Million Food Stamp Fraud Scheme.
• Egyptian National Who Was In US Illegally Set Multiple People On Fire At Boulder Pro-Israeli March.
• Morgan Stanley: We Now Believe US Stocks Will Outperform The Rest Of The World.
• Weekend News Roundup - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• 14 People Charged In $25 Million COVID Relief, Small Business Loan Fraud Scheme.
• Two Bridges 'Blown Up', Trains Derailed, In Russian Regions Bordering Ukraine, Killing At Least 7.
• Kremlin Prepared For All-Out Conflict With NATO: Institute For War.
• "Everything Has Been Alarmist": Bessent Shuts Down CBS Over Inflation, Says US Will 'Never Default' On Debt.
• Wall Of Confusion.
• CT Dems Advance Bill That Allows Lawsuits For Turning Over Illegals To ICE.
• Zelensky Calls Meetings With Putin 'Meaningless' And Asks For More Military Aid.
• From Taxation To Confiscation: Europe's Wealth Exodus & The Coming Asset Seizure.
• Nvidia CEO Tells Bloomberg What He Really Thinks About Biden-Era Open Borders.
• Punitive Politics And Economic Self-Harm – Germany Plans Special Tax On U.S. Tech Giants.
• AfD's Weidel Slams "Grotesque" "Authoritarian" Attack On German Democracy.
• The Taliban Is Back In The International Spotlight.
• The Narratives Change; Markets Don't...
• Megyn Kelly: Bongino & Patel "Looked Like Hostages" While Claiming Epstein Did Kill Himself.
• Harvard, You're Entitled To Nothing.
• ICE To Increase Deportations To 3000 Illegals Per Day After Leadership Shake-Up.

Wall Street Journal:

• FBI Investigating Possible Terror Attack in Boulder, Colorado.
• Iran’s Latest Nuclear Weapons Progress
• Two new IAEA reports document Tehran’s years of deception. 
• Needing Dollars, Iran-Backed Militias Turn to Visa and Mastercard.
• Ukraine Says It Hit Dozens of Warplanes Deep Inside Russia.
• Trump Administration Targets Tech Firms as It Cuts More Contracts.
• Trump Looks to Shore Up Support for GOP Megabill.
• Harvard Has Trained So Many Chinese Communist Officials, They Call It Their ‘Party School’.
• Poland Presidential Exit Polls Show Conservative Historian in Lead.
• How Europe Is Losing the Global Tech Race, in Five Charts.

CNBC:  

• Top Wall Street analysts prefer these dividend stocks for consistent returns .
• Trump and Xi are likely to talk soon about trade, though no date has been set, Hassett says.
• Trump advisers defend tariffs amid legal fight, insisting they’re ‘not going away’.
• Office dress codes are more confusing than ever—etiquette experts and stylish dressers offer their best advice.
• FDA approves Moderna’s new lower-dose Covid-19 vaccine.

MarketWatch.com:   

• Oil prices jump after OPEC+ agrees to another sharp production hike.
• Fed’s Waller sees path to multiple interest-rate cuts this year.
• Amid tariff agita, Wall Street is a bit more cautious than normal on second-quarter earnings.

NewsMax:  

• OMB's Vought: Big Beautiful Bill Doesn't Increase Deficit .
• Sen. Rick Scott: Cut More to Restore 'Fiscal Sanity'.
• Sen. Paul: Too Much Debt, Defense Spending.

Fox News:

• FBI probes 'targeted terror attack' in Colorado; Molotov cocktails reportedly hurled at pro-Israel group. 
• A-list celebs name-dropped in Diddy's explosive sex trafficking, racketeering trial.
• Dozens arrested in ICE nightclub raid for being in US illegally from China, Taiwan.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Ukraine Wipes Out Dozens of Russian Nuclear Bombers in Drone Strike Deep Inside Russia – Escalating War with Russia – Trump WAS NOT Notified – Takes Place Two Days After Lindsey Graham’s Visit with Zelensky.
• President Trump Issues Warning as Radical Judges Threaten to Block His Tariffs
• SPLC Labels Turning Point USA as a “Hate Group”-Charlie Kirk Responds: “A cheap smear from a washed-up org that’s been fleecing scared grandmas for decades”.
• At least 8 locations in Cuba may be operating as Chinese espionage bases.
• ‘Butler: The Untold Story of the Near Assassination of Donald Trump’ Book to Release in July by Acclaimed, Primary Source Journalist – Trump Endorsed Book.
• Breaking: Targeted Terror Attack Against Israeli Demonstrators in Colorado – Suspect Named Mohamad Set Victims on Fire with Molotovs, Multiple Victims Including Children.
• Globalist EU Forcing Hate Speech Laws on the Irish-Given Two Months to Comply.
• Bill Maher Agrees with Trump as He Slams Harvard as an “A-Hole Factory” (Video).
• WAR ON WOMEN: National Uproar Sparked as Boys Dominate Girls in Two Different States to Steal Track and Field Titles (VIDEO).
• ALARMING: New China National Security White Paper Signals Confrontation with the U.S.

The Epoch Times:

• Schools in China Reportedly Isolate Students as COVID Cases Surge.
• China’s Real Estate Crisis Deepens Under Pressure From Trade War.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• All new XChat is rolling out with encryption, vanishing messages and the ability to send any kind of file. Also, audio/video calling. This is built on Rust with (Bitcoin style) encryption, whole new architecture.
• We know where Cory Booker learned his Nazi salute from. (pic)

• @MarioNawful  

• SEC NOEM: CHINA HAS INFILTRATED THIS COUNTRY. “These ties to China are deeply alarming, and they’re not just Harvard. There’s other universities. We’re going through every single one of them. China has infiltrated this country. It’s my job to protect the homeland, and I’ve been given that direction by President Trump. They will not participate in this foreign student program until they clean up their ways.” (video)
• FBI RELEASES 112 PAGES FROM NASHVILLE SCHOOL SHOOTER. IT'S WORSE THAN YOU THINK. After a long legal battle, the FBI finally dropped 112 pages of writings from the Nashville Covenant School shooter. Maps. Faculty lists. School break calendars. Anti-Christian rants. Screeds against religion, Biden, and life itself. The pages are soaked in bitterness and rage, the mind of someone who believed they were "born wrong" and "nothing on earth can save me." One page screams: “WE ARE ALL F*GS,” another maps out shooting drills, body armor setups, even nods to Columbine’s anniversary.
• TULSI: “THIS WAS STATE PROPAGANDA - PURE AND SIMPLE”. Tulsi declassified records showing how the Biden administration coordinated with Big Tech, media, and intel agencies to censor Americans and crush dissent. “They’ll lie. They’ll smear. They’ll silence. And they’ll even destroy you if you dare to speak the truth.”
• CANADA’S IMMIGRATION GRAPH JUST TURNED INTO A ROCKET SHIP. Canada's bringing in 2.5 million people by 2025. It's the biggest peacetime immigration spike ever for a country its size. The chart literally goes vertical after 2021. Blink and the population jumps 25%. At this rate, Canada’s about to gain a whole new Toronto every year. Hope they’re building houses faster than that line’s climbing.
• BREAKING: FEDS KNEW EAST PALESTINE WAS TOXIC, LIED ANYWAY. They burned 115,000 gallons of toxic chemicals, called it safe, and dipped. New docs show FEMA, the White House, and even the National Security Council secretly freaked out about “cancer clusters” and called it a “really toxic plume.” But they told the public, “Nothing to see here.” The FEMA guy sent by Biden? Never met with residents. Locals nicknamed him “the ghost of October.” Now they’re calling it criminal negligence. Honestly, can you blame them?

• @LauraLoomer

• On Fox News this morning with @MariaBartiromo, DHS Secretary @Sec_Noem said, “China has infiltrated this country." She’s right. So my question is, why are people like @StefanieSpear who have ties to China and the CCP via advocacy for @NRDC allowed to have a SECURITY CLEARANCE in the Trump administration at @HHSGov! Spear is a total Trump hater and she participated in the creation of and the publication of the recent MAHA Report that was riddled with errors and fake citations.
  

• @C_3C_3

• Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal go to Ukraine and there’s a massive war escalation the next day. Senator Mark Kelly goes to Ukraine and there’s a massive cyber attack on X originating from Ukraine the next day. There are no coincidences. Swamp. (pic)

• @EYakoby

• BREAKING: Middle East migrants are now going store to store and physically assaulting people in France. What has happened to Europe? (video)
• BREAKING: Middle East migrants are now looting stores in Paris as the city burns. The media tries to distract you with Gaza so that you don’t pay attention to the Islamist takeover.
• BREAKING: As middle eastern migrants in Paris use the soccer win as an excuse to riot, a car has crashed into a group of pedestrians. Europe has been overrun by Islamists.  (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: CNN SHOCKED as 59% of Democrats believe their *OWN PARTY* does not get things done, 68% that they don't have strong leaders. And only 16% of Americans say the Democratic Party has "strong leaders," 19% say Democrats "get things done." Huge yikes. (video)
• UPDATE: Egg prices have now declined 62% since President Trump's inauguration day. They were $6.55. They are now $2.52 per dozen. MASSIVE WIN. The media ignored this story once it got good for Trump. (graph)

• @DC_Draino

• It is an absolute disgrace that the only people arrested for election fraud are the ones who expose it. (video)

• @nicksortor

• WTF?! Third world invaders are ATTACKING young innocent women in the streets of Paris. THIS is what American streets will look like without mass deportations. We REALLY have to get these deportation numbers up. And quickly. (video)

• @GeneralFlynn

• Lindsey Graham is attempting to sabotage peace talks with Russia in Kiev. This man is an embarrassment to the United States, and will lose his Senate seat this upcoming election. Earlier I called him a WARMONGER, I want to change my description to COMPLETE IDIOT. We’re in serious trouble America.

• @Gerashchenko_en

• More footage of burning Russian aircraft after the attack. There have been reports that up to 40 Russian military aircraft may have been hit in the attack carried out in the special operation by Security Service of Ukraine. A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 aircraft are reportedly among those hit, causing Russia over $2 billion damage.

• @Fxhedgers

• TWO MEN INDICTED IN PLOT TO SMUGGLE US MILITARY TECHNOLOGY TO CHINA (Newsweek). Two foreign nationals, including one with lawful permanent residency in the United States, have been indicted by a Wisconsin grand jury for attempting to smuggle U.S. military technology to China, including encrypted communications gear. Newsweek has reached out to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for comment via email on Saturday.

• @matt_vanswol

• Here’s a list of all the news networks who have not covered Cory Booker’s salute: - NYTimes - CNN - Washington Post - MSNBC - NPR - USA Today - Reuters - Axios - ABC News Every single one of them wrote stories on Elon Musk’s “salute”… …do you get it yet? (video)

• @tshugart2

• A reminder, given today's Ukrainian drone strikes, that it is becoming borderline-insane that we routinely allow ships *owned and operated by DoD-designated Chinese military companies* to sit in our ports with thousands of containers onboard and under their control.

• @bennyjohnson

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just absolutely shut down Margaret Brennan from CBS: "You said there was going to be big inflation. There hasn't been any. The numbers are the best in four years. Stop saying it could happen, wait and see what happens.” (video)

• @WarClandestine

• The rats are starting to eat each other. MSM propagandist, Chuck Todd, compares the Biden regime to the Soviet Union, and claims the press are NOT to blame for lying about Biden’s decline. (video)

• @JustJenRX

• Black woman killed by 6 illegal immigrants. No BLM outrage. No Al Sharpton. No Whoopi Goldberg. No NAACP. No mainstream media. No democrats. (video)

• @realMaalouf

• PARIS: 2 dead, 192 injured, 426 arrested, and hundreds of millions of euros in damage in a night of mayhem. How many more times will this happen before Europe finally wakes up? (video)

• @GlobalMktObserv

• Institutional investors remain BEARISH: Short interest on the median S&P 500 stock hit 2.3%, a 7-year HIGH. Hedge fund shorts on Nasdaq stocks as a share of open interest hit 41%, the most in 4 YEARS. All while retail investors bought the most ever. (graph)

• @FreightAlley

• The Chinese have developed containers that will launch attack drone swarms that they plan to use against the US in the event of a war. These containers will be placed on commercial ships from China to the US.

• @ShadowofEzra

• BlackRock is among several powerful entities named in a new lawsuit filed by hundreds of East Palestine train derailment victims against Norfolk Southern. The suit alleges a coordinated effort to block medical care for those exposed to toxic chemicals. Also named are Vanguard, Mercy Health, and Quest Diagnostics, with the CDC accused of instructing healthcare providers not to test for dioxins or other hazardous substances. Plaintiffs claim this led to widespread misdiagnoses, delayed treatment, and that a letter was circulated telling providers to dismiss patient health concerns. (video)

• @BartRussell10

• This Navy veteran is challenging Lindsey Graham in the 2026 midterm, please vote him in and Lindsey out.

• @Barchart

• $TLT just saw a weekly inflow of $1.8 Billion, the highest inflow among all ETFs. (graph)

• @JoshWalkos

• A friendly reminder why Bono cares so much about USAID. (pic)

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,025,321 Reports(+731 from prior report) Through April 25th, 2025.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 +1.25 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 52.0 +1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.78 +.21% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.97 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.2 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.42% +2.0basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 +1.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.20%.
• S&P 500 futures -.35%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.50%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower,  weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.