Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,139.9 +3.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 43,629.9 +3.7%

• NASDAQ 20,160.3 +3.9%

• Russell 2000 2,1761.7 +3.6%

• NYSE FANG+ 14,750.8 +5.7%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 196.2 +2.0%

• Wilshire 5000 60,724.1 +3.2%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,215.9 +4.5%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,899.1 +2.3%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 890.8 +.3%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 247.3 +2.2%
  

• NYSE Technology 6,172.1 +5.5%

• Transports 15,429.2 +4.7%

• Utilities 1,046.37 +1.2%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 144.0 +2.5%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 48.06 +3.6%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 224.8 +.01%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 124.9 -.36%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 557,562 +.92%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.6 +28.9%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 919 +792

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -20.4 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 231,048 +20.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,938,664  -3.9%

• Total Put/Call .77 -20.2%

• OEX Put/Call .73 -27.3%

• ISE Sentiment 139.0 -8.0

• NYSE Arms .79 -41.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 74.9 +7.2%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 +41.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.37 +19.0 basis points 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -20.3%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .60 -45.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 17.8 -25.5%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.96 -.9%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.0 unch.

• Smart Money Flow Index 22,389.9 -1.9%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  81.4 -12.7

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.023 Trillion +.11%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$11.742 Million

• AAII % Bulls 35.1 +5.7%

• AAII % Bears 40.3 -2.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 65.0 (GREED) +8.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 298.2 -5.2%

• Crude Oil 65.4/bbl. -12.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 208.7 -10.9%

• Natural Gas 3.73 -4.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.09 euros/megawatt-hour -19.2%
  

• Heating Oil 229.9 -9.7% 
• Newcastle Coal 106.2 (1,000/metric ton) -5.2%

• Gold 3,275.6 -2.7%
• Silver 36.0 +.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 465.5 +2.3%

• Copper 506.5 +4.8%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 342.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.43%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 8,300.0 USD/metric tonne -.9%

• CME Lumber  628.5 +1.2%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,401.7 -1.7%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 336.0 USD/Short Ton +1.1%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.9% -.5 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.0 +7.3 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.37 +17.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 228.0 -8.0%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch. 
  
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $180.0 Billion($1,118.01 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +2.2% +.8 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.17 +1.66:  Growth Rate +10.2% +.6 percentage point, P/E 21.9 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.27% +3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 445.08 +11.74: Growth Rate +19.2% +3.2 percentage points, P/E 33.2 +.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.3 +13.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.7 -2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.1 +1.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 18.6%(+4.1 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 81.4%(-4.1 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 7/30

• US Dollar Index 97.47 -1.41%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,849.98 +.79%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 106,564.5 +7.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 190.50 +.68%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.97 +2.1%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 53.5 +7.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.28% -9.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.615 Trillion -.29%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.519 Billion +22.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.62 -2.5%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 217.9 +3.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 88.0 -10.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.5 -3.8%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.25 -4.4%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 152.3 -3.4%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 89.8 -18.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.3 -5.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 unch.
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 121.15 +.89%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.1% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% +10.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.64% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 -15.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -8.0 basis points -11.0 basis points 
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.25 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 +1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.7 -6.9%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 218.0 +4.5% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 220.0 -6.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.6 -5.6%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 133.6 -6.9%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 161.0 -4.8%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 147.0 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 599.0 -1.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .55 -1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.5% +10.0 basis points

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,468.5B -.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 245,000 -.31%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.5 -.47%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.86% -2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 250,800 +1.1%

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.8% -.2 percentage point
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +13.0% -9.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $231.2M +43.5%

• Nationwide Gas $3.21/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,553.0 -8.1%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,982.6/40 ft Box -9.0%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,369.3 +2.0%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 -12.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 62.8 -2.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 257,673 -1.3%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,930,370 +15.1% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 51.0% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +4.5%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +2.3%

Leading Sectors

• Electrification +10.4%

• Networking +8.9%
• Airlines +7.3%

• AI Innovation +6.8%
  

• Semis +6.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Shipping -.9%
  

• Gold & Silver -2.3%
  

• Energy -4.0%

• Oil Service -4.3%
  

• Education -5.4%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (44)

• WFF, MKE, MRC, SATS, KTOS, NEON, IREN, DNOW, POWL, JHX, PGY, UNFI, AEVA, TBPH, DKS, ARM, CAE, EXAS, SPIR, GEV, DAVE, G, APEI, BA,  EXAS, ENVA, GEV, CCL, HWM, RYI, CUK, BLCO, AS, SOFI, STLA, GTLS, RCL, VST, NRG, SLP, NX, M, GE, FLS, CPNG and FDX

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• KYMR, LZMH, PPTA, MP, USAR and CRMD

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Rising US-EU Trade Deal Odds, Quarter-End Window Dressing, Consumer Discretionary/Industrial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.2%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.26% unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.3 -5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.7 -2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.1 +.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +2.2% -8.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.17 +1.10:  Growth Rate +10.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.27% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 445.08 +.24: Growth Rate +19.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 unch.
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.37 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 +.3
• US Yield Curve 54.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.9% -.5 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.3% +2.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% +10.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 76.0% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 58.6%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 59.0% +23.0 percentage points 
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 31st 76.0% -10.0 percentage points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +435 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -161 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (PRGS)/1.30

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for June is estimated to rise to 42.7 versus 40.5 in May. 

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for June is estimated to rise to -14.0 versus -15.3 in May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking and the (MDB) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The US and China have finalized a trade understanding reached last month in Geneva, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said. 
• Billions of dollars in debt amid China’s property crisis and with no clear succession plan: New World Development, and the family behind it, are in turmoil.
• European Union leaders are discussing their response to President Donald Trump’s latest proposal on trade after a briefing from Ursula von der Leyen. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• President Donald Trump is shifting his gaze back to matters at home — specifically his “One Big Beautiful Bill" — and probably not a moment too soon for Republicans in Congress. 
• The Trump administration is asking consulting firms to justify their federal contracts as part of far-reaching efforts to reduce waste in federal spending. 
• Target is preparing to introduce new technology to lock and unlock store shelves from a smartphone.
• The S&P 500 Index is on track to close at an all-time high on Thursday as tariff and geopolitical concerns dissipate — capping a stunning recovery that has added almost $10 trillion to US stocks. 
• PayPal CEO Alex Chriss said adoption of stablecoins in the US still faces significant hurdles and will take time to achieve. 
• The leader of UnitedHealth’s Optum Health care delivery unit has left the role, an early indication of management changes under Stephen Hemsley, UnitedHealth’s new CEO. 
• AI Is Changing the Craft of Coding, for Better and Worse.
• Here’s your Evening Briefing.  
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• "Train Wreck": Extreme Measures Being Taken To Battle Biden's 'Green' Energy Grid Crisis.
• Why Processed Foods May Be Secretly Raising Your Blood Pressure.
• The Legitimacy Of South Korea's Election Called Into Question.
• Goldman Sees Copper Peaking In August Amid Ex-US Supply Squeeze.
• More Fetal Losses Than Expected After Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccination In Israel: Study.
• *MACRON: IF US OPTS FOR 10% TARIFF, EU TO RESPOND WITH OWN LEVY.
• *VON DER LEYEN SAYS EU IS READY TO STRIKE TRADE DEAL WITH THE US. *VON DER LEYEN SAYS EU WILL BE PREPARED IF NO TRADE DEAL WITH US.   
• Nasdaq’s golden cross, systematic flows, and Mag-7 muscle are torching the underexposed. 
• Negotiators Confirm ‘Revenge Tax’ Measure Nixed From Tax Bill.
• Marketwide short squeeze steamrolling hedge funds again, with VIP less most shorted basket at 2025 lows.
• Feminists Are Begging For Men To Come Back But Still Blame Them For Everything.
• Homan Reveals ICE Rescuing Migrant Children Trafficked To Pedos Under Biden, Lives Apart From Wife Due To Death Threats. 
• New Texas Law Prevents Land Sales To CCP Members.
• April Tariff 'Panicans' On Suicide Watch As S&P Closes Near Record High.

• @TheTranscript 

• Nike CEO: "While our financial results are in-line with our expectations, they are not where we want them to be. Moving forward, we expect our business to improve..." $NKE: +1.2% AH.
• $MA CPO outlines Mastercard’s five competitive moats: data, global network, product breadth, customer relationships, and talent. "The first and foremost is data, which I'll come back to because that really is the kernel around which so much of our services business is built "

• @MarioNawful

• ACTBLUE OFFICIALS SUBPOENAED IN GOP FRAUD PROBE, DOJ LAUNCHES PARALLEL INVESTIGATION. ActBlue is under fire. House Republicans just subpoenaed top ActBlue officials over what they allege is “widespread” donation fraud. The DOJ, under Trump’s directive, is running its own probe in parallel. At the center: foreign IPs, prepaid cards, and nearly 2,000 flagged transactions. Internal docs show ActBlue skipped basic fraud checks during the 2024 cycle.

• @LauraLoomer 

• When will we see the Trump admin designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization? @ZohranKMamdani is funded by the Muslim Brotherhood via Islamic PACs. He is a subscriber of Twelver Shia Islam, the same form of Islam the Ayatollahs in Iran subscribe to. You could literally bar Zohran from running for office and criminally charge him if you designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist org. He is backed by groups who were identified as being pro HAMAS and affiliates of the Muslim Brotherhood during the Holy Land Foundation terrorism trial. Why has this not happened?

• @amuse 

• SPORTSBALL: ESPN producers reportedly told Rebecca Lobo she had to retract and apologize for her comment that America was Great during the WNBA's Fever/Aces game.

• @OcrazioCornPop

• CONGRESSIONAL SOURCE: J.D. Vance HAS the authority to overrule the Parliamentarian, which is an "advisory" role. This power hasn't been used in 50 years. Should @JDVance use his power to "ADVISE" this Swamp Relic to GET LOST?

• @ShabbosK

• I have been added to 9 different "stop Zohran Mamdani" group chats, so let me say this publicly: Mamdani only won 9% of the NYC electorate; most New Yorkers oppose his policies. Zohran Mamdani can be defeated in November. But it does require all hands on deck. Here's how: 1. Andrew Cuomo must drop out. 2. Curtis Sliwa must drop out. 3. Eric Adams, the only alternative, becomes the anti-socialist candidate.

• @RealJamesWoods

• Some of the things social NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani has previously called for:

• @nicksortor

• WTF?! ALL of those involved in the Biden Autopen scandal are being “interviewed” by Congress BEHIND CLOSED DOORS. MAKE IT A PUBLIC HEARING! THE PEOPLE DESERVE TO KNOW!

• @RodDMartin

• MEDIA CAUGHT LYING (AGAIN): Pentagon Confirms Iran Didn’t Move Uranium Before U.S. Strikes. No uranium was moved. Fordow & other sites are “no longer operational”. It’ll take Iran years to rebuild, if ever. Let’s break this down. (thread)

• @TonySeruga

• GPS—puts Zohran Mamdani at Barack Hussein Obama II’s War Room twice in 6 weeks. Also present were leaders from the Muslim Brotherhood and what certainly appears to be two Iranian MOIS operatives, very likely IRGC Unit 840. Both are physically linked to Majid Dastjani Farahani, having meet Farahani in Venezuela in June 2024, with the timing, they very likely were discussing the ass@ssination of President Trump. These were the same operatives who were regularly is the company of fake federal agents with every agency from the Department of Homeland Security, to the U.S. Marshals, Arian Taherzadeh and Haider Ali. One was Pakistani intelligence while the other was Iranian. See the first comment below.

• @Liz_Churchill10

• Here’s Obama thanking ‘Puff Daddy’…just in case you’re wondering why Prosecutors are abandoning his Human Trafficking Charges. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.25 -1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 50.75 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%.
• Polymarket: Another US military action against Iran by 6/30 2.0% unch.
• Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 17.0% unch.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.08 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.7 +1.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.25% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.51%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.04%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Increasing Fed Rate-Cut Optimism, US Economic Data, Lower Long-Term Rates, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.2%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.26% -4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +20.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.3 +1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.7 +1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +11.0% +7.7 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 279.07 +.12:  Growth Rate +10.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.25% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 444.84 +.50: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.1 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.29 +11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.0 -.3
• US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.3% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 74.3% (+6.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 58.0%(+6.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 36.0% -1.0 percentage point 
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 31st 86.0% +1.0 percentage point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +240 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my financial/tech/industrial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +3.8% 2) Steel +2.7% 3) Oil Service +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CORZ, ENVX, BKSY, WS, SPIR, HSAI, CRCL, AVAV, TSSI, VEON, TWI, RKLB, SERV, HIMS, FWRD, ALAB, FWRG, FUL, TECK, ERO, SCCO, IONQ, LASR, HBM, AEHR, AYI, FCX, PENN, LUNR, GLXY, SYM, DOGZ, SEDG, PSIX, HLIO, RDW, MDGL, METC, CRBG, AESI, IREN, ANET, KEP, VRNT, OSCR, FLS, AMSC, MKC, DKS, MRVL, VKTX, SQM, COIN, AMBA, CI, SMCI, GEL, CAVA, TIMB, GTLB, INCY, DELL, HASI, PHH, NVMI, KC, DLO, INR, AI, DLO, BHP, JBS, PBA, ASAN, ARLO, OUST, HUT, ARDT, RTAC, NEXN, IFS, COHR, PBI, BUR, RCL and INR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KVUE 2) VRNT 3) ROST 4) EXC 5) SONY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QS 2) MLKN 3) CORZ 4) WS 5) KEQU

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLU 3) XLK 4) PPA 5) IBB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume