Saturday, July 12, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @MarioNawful  
  • WIFE OF MAN KILLED IN TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT SPEAKS OUT. "We have no answers. I want to sit down with the Secret Service, and I want them to tell me everything that happened that day. I want to know why they failed. I want to know what happened. Why Butler? Why was that such a failure that day? What was the reason? Why did he walk around for an hour without someone grabbing him? He was a wonderful human... He was the best husband." (video)
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (CHRD) and (DXCM).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • Polymarket
  • Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 
  • EU 47.0% -9.0 percentage points
  • India 47.0% -6.0 percentage points.
  • Japan 29.0% -4.0 percentage points. 
  • South Korea  24.0% -7.0 percentage points.
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @C_3C_3
  • @Holden_Culotta
  • @BizHustlez
  • @EricLDaugh 
  • @mtgreenee
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @AFpost
  • @charliekirk11
  • @TonySeruga
  • @LeadingReport
  • @ProjectConstitu
  • @EYakoby
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @NJBeisner
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:

Friday, July 11, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,260.3 -.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 44,408.3 -1.1%
  • NASDAQ 20,614.7 +.2%
  • Russell 2000 2,2237.3 -.4%
  • NYSE FANG+ 14,817.5 -1.3%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 210.5 +1.6%
  • Wilshire 5000 61,970.1 -.3%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,301.4 unch.
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,932.9 -.6%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 889.6 -1.9%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 251.5 +.7%
  • NYSE Technology 6,226.9 -.09%
  • Transports 16,215.3 +1.0%
  • Utilities 1,063.7 +.9%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 144.9 +1.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 48.25 -.9%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 225.4 +.12%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 125.4 -.06%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 566,198 +.3%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.6 +59.5%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 969 -437
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -25.6 +3.2%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 234,693 +.74%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,989,440 +1.4%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -29.9%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.05 +11.9%
  • ISE Sentiment 156.0 -13.0
  • NYSE Arms .71 -35.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 76.5 +4.7%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .60 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.60 -8.0 basis points 
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.0 -2.1%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .47 -22.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 17.4 -2.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.3 -2.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY)7.9 +3.4%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 23,003.9 +.06%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  86.3 -13.0
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.072 Trillion -.08%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$10.261 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 41.4 -8.0%
  • AAII % Bears 35.6 +7.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 75.0 (EXTREME GREED) -3.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 300.37 -.11%
  • Crude Oil 68.6/bbl. +1.7%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 219.2 +3.1%
  • Natural Gas 3.32 -2.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.6 euros/megawatt-hour +6.5%
  • Heating Oil 245.5 +3.3% 
  • Newcastle Coal 113.5 (1,000/metric ton) +1.1%
  • Gold 3,356.3 +.6%
  • Silver 38.5 +4.1%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 461.9 -1.3%
  • Copper 561.2 +9.4%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 346.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.8 USD/Metric Tonne +4.7%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 8,675.0 USD/metric tonne +4.5%
  • CME Lumber  667.0 +.3%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,373.8 -2.2%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 336.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8 +.4 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.52 +18.3%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 769.0 +109.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.6 +79.6%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $190.0 Billion($1,180.12 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$10.0 Billion
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +.6% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.55 +n/a:  Growth Rate +10.7% +n/a percentage point, P/E 22.3 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 448.09 +n/a: Growth Rate +20.0% +n/a percentage points, P/E 33.2 +n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.3 +5.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.6 +3.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -3.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 6.7%(+.5 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 93.3%(-.5 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 7/30
  • US Dollar Index 97.81 +.72%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,848.1 -.55%
  • Bitcoin/USD 117,716.5 +8.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 194.0 +1.3%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 +.19%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 51.0 +5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.42% +7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.614 Trillion +.05%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.423 Billion +.45%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.6 +.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 219.7 +5.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 85.0 +1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.4 -3.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 148.07 +5.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 78.67 -4.7%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.75 -3.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 -.04%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.69 -.23%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.1% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 +12.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +5.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.25 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.5 -3.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.5 +2.3%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 380.3 +4.1
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 183.0 -17.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 57.96 -2.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 128.1 -1.3%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 154.6 +1.9%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 600.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .54 -1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.5% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,425.2B -1.0%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 235,500 -2.4%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.5 -4.4%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.73% -5.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 281,600 +9.4%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.1% +.2 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +9.0% +17.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $251.8M +33.5%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.17/gallon +.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,465.0 +2.0%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,672.4/40 ft Box -5.0%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,313.7 -2.2%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 53.0 -20.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 238,536 -10.4%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,873,345 +17.0% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 48.0% -2.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth unch.
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +3.8%
  • Electric Vehicles +3.3%
  • Homebuilding +3.3%
  • Gambling +3.0%
  • Electrification +2.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Insurance -2.7%
  • Healthcare Providers -2.9%
  • Computer Services -3.7%
  • Cyber Security -4.0%
  • Networking -4.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)
  • NEGG, UMAC, AIRO, SDM, SBET, ATRO, MEXT, LEVI, HROW, KTOS, CLBR, AVAV, ADUR, RDW, DFDV, HNGE, CENTA, VEON, ASTS, PSMT, CENX, PFGC, FINV, LPG, GOOS, OR, SOFI, FUTU, REPL, PAAS, VC, HAL, CCIR and USM
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)
  • WPP, RARE, FSS, VIST, ZETA, BHF, BYD, BYRN, OSCR, HELE, TMDX, DCTH and BGL
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Slight Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, US-Global Trade Deal Uncertainty, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.44%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.42% +7.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.6 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.55 +.17:  Growth Rate +10.7% unch., P/E 22.3 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 448.09 +.16: Growth Rate +20.0% unch., P/E 33.2 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .60 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.60 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.6 +.7
  • US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% -1.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 60.5% (-4.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 45.4%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
  • Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 
  • EU 56.0% -7.0 percentage points
  • India 53.0% -13.0 percentage points.
  • Japan 33.0% -9.0 percentage points. 
  • South Korea  31.0% -11.0 percentage points.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -8 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -87 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (FAST)/.28
After the Close: 
  • (FBK)/.88
Economic Releases 
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The (MA) business update could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST