Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.09%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.43% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.5 euros/megawatt-hour -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.8 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.1 +.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.6 -1.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +.8% +.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.80 +.25:  Growth Rate +10.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 448.90 +.81: Growth Rate +20.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.1 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .59 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -16.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 9.5 +.9
• US Yield Curve 53.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.0% -.8 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 59.2% (+1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 46.5%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• EU 46.0% +2.0 percentage points
• India 49.0% -5.0 percentage points.
• Japan 19.0% -3.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  43.0% +13.0 percentage points.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +111 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -50 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +170 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -2.6% 2) Energy -2.0% 3) Homebuilding -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HELE, LEVI, BYRN, MU, STZ, SNDK, ROG, WAT and NEGG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EBAY 2) SBET 3) UMAC 4) CLOV 5) EWG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DNUT 2) INKT 3) CAPR 4) VLO 5) VSTS

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) ARKK 3) SOXX 4) XLF 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Digital Health +1.7% 2) Internet +1.3% 3) Networking +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VBTX, NBIS, METC, SBET, PBI, USAR, BGL, KC, TRI, BKSY, CORZ, VEON, RKLB, IREN, APP, LIF, RNA, SERV, SPSC, DAVE, SMR, RDW, CNTA, XYZ, GLXY, ADSK, AZ, ROOT, AMSC, BILI, APPN, ASTS, OSCR, TNXP, BBIO, FTNT, MP, NGNE, ENVX, AS, EQT, DUOL, LI, PYPL, EXE, MSTR, ACGL, MARA, NAMS, HUBS, JOBY and NCNO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KODK 2) RSP 3) STT 4) HLT 5) CAN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SFIX 2) NBIS 3) ADSK 4) APP 5) TRI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLU 3) KRE 4) XLI 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACI)/.54
• (ANGO)/-.12
• (BLK)/10.78
• (BK)/1.75
• (C)/1.61
• (JPM)/4.48
• (STT)/2.35
• (WFC)/1.41 

After the Close: 

• (JBHT)/1.30
• (OMC)/2.02
• (PNFP)/1.91 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Empire Manufacturing report for July is estimated to rise to -9.1 versus -16.0 in June.
• The CPI MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in May.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in May.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, OPEC Monthly Report, Intl AIDS Society Conference, (STZ) annual meeting and the HC Wainwright Powering the Future Through Nuclear Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.9 -3.7
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 42.4% of Issues Advancing, 55.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .76 -11.6% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$110.3M
  
• 74 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 53.1% (-.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.6 -4.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 78.5% +2.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.8 +.2%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 165.8 +2.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 77.0 (EXTREME GREED) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.2 -26.5%
  
• Vix 17.2 +4.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -7.2%
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 50.0% +6.0 percentage points
• India 44.0% -10.0 percentage points.
• Japan 19.0% -3.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  41.0% +11.0 percentage points.

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• LATEST: President Trump said the US will send Ukraine more Patriot missiles, which Kyiv has said it needs to protect itself from Russian airstrikes. 
• President Emmanuel Macron said France will make a “new” and “historic” effort to increase defense spending to counter an acceleration of threats to freedom in Europe and the risk of outright war in the coming years. 
• European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said the EU will extend the suspension of trade countermeasures against the US until Aug. 1 to allow for further negotiations. 
• Singapore’s economy expanded in the second quarter, avoiding a technical recession on a rise in construction activity and strong exports.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Gold gained, bolstered by haven demand as traders weighed fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump.
• Earnings season is starting up again, and the focus remains squarely on trade. For corporate finance chiefs, it's all about profit margins. Read more in the latest CFO Briefing.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the US government doesn’t need to be concerned that the Chinese military will use his company’s products to improve their capabilities.
• A “cascade of preventable failures” within the US Secret Service nearly cost President Donald Trump his life during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania last year, according to a Senate committee report released Sunday. 
• Apple CEO Tim Cook isn’t leaving the company anytime soon, @markgurman reports in Power On. But expect a larger management overhaul and a slew of other changes.
• For much of this year, bond investors were all but certain that the Federal Reserve would resume cutting interest rates by September. Lately, that confidence has been wavering.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @Zerohedge  

• Military Aircraft's Mysterious Crash Sparks UFO Speculation In U.S. Airspace.
• Federal Judge Reverses Biden-Era Rule That Barred Medical Debt From Credit Reports.
• China Warns of Rogue Robot Troops Unleashing Terminator-Style "Indiscriminate Killings".
• One Year Later: DEI Law Enforcement Initiatives Questioned After Assassination Attempt.
• Australia Rebuffs Trump As US Demands To Know What Allies Would Do In Taiwan War.
• Marines Test 'Narco Sub' With An Eye On War With China.
• Fool Me Once.
• What The World Is Asking ChatGPT In 2025.
• Does The Market Care About Tariffs Anymore? 
• Waymo Takes To Philadelphia.
• Putin Shifts Iran Stance? Now Reportedly Supports Zero Enrichment Plan Backed By US.
• Why we care about the Epstein files and why no one will convince us to stop caring: There is no more heinous crime than the rape of young boys and girls. No one will convince us that Epstein raped 1,000+ girls by himself while his elite friends sipped margaritas and tanned during their rape island visits. Asking us to believe that means asking us to reject every ounce of conscience and common sense that we have. Elites have gotten away with evil crimes for too long. Everything they get away with is a constant reminder that we have a two tiered justice system. Epstein’s case is a symbol of the two tiered system that we want burnt to the ground. It’s also a symbol of how the deep state has told us that our votes don’t matter for our entire lives… Every time we vote for change, they undermine us. They’ve run the show for decades while protected by bureaucratic red tape and blackmail. People have had enough. Epstein is a symbol of the control they’ve had for far too long. It’s not just about HIM, it’s about what he represents, who entangled with him and what they’ve stolen from us.
• Why are the Epstein files still hidden? Who are the rich & powerful being protected? On Tuesday, I'm introducing an amendment to force a vote demanding the FULL Epstein files be released to the public. The Speaker must call a vote & put every Congress member on record. 
• 10 Non-Tax Policies In Trump's Megabill That Will Affect Americans. 

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 +1.25 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 46.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.07%.
• Polymarket: Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 44.0% -3.0 percentage points
• India 54.0% +7.0 percentage points.
• Japan 22.0% -7.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  30.0% +6.0 percentage points.

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 +.1% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.88 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 76.6 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.41% -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +1.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.63%.
• S&P 500 futures -.41%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.41%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.