Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 -1.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.75 -1.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 57.0% +19.0 percentage points.
• India 21.0% +12.0 percentage points.
• South Korea  61.0% +10.0 percentage points.
• Canada 26.0% +2.0 percentage points. 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.03 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 79.7 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.38% +3.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 -1.0%.  
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.3%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.13%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.41%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, Trump Admin AI/Grid Focus, Short-Covering, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.14%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% +4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +4.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.08%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.7 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.5 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.7 -2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(116 of 500 reporting) +8.9% +1.5 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.11 +.20:  Growth Rate +10.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +45.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 452.46 +.50: Growth Rate +19.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .53 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.9 -.4
• US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.3% +1.4 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.73% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 -8.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 57.9% (-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 48.4%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• EU 54.0% +16.0 percentage points.
• India 16.0% +7.0 percentage points.
• South Korea  65.0% +14.0 percentage points.
• Canada 26.0% +2.0 percentage points. 

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +544 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +370 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -.9% 2) Alt Energy -.9% 3) Insurance -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TMHC, TDY, SQM, SNV, KRMN, PNFP, DGX, EQT, CNI, CB, ON, STM, SAP, DQ, MCHP, PFSI, BMI, NEE, QS, SBET, MEDP, OTIS, NUTX, TXN, ENPH, KSS, FI and SDM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GPRO 2) KMI 3) IQ 4) TXN 5) FI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OTIS 2) ENPH 3) KSS 4) NUTX 5) TXN

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) SMH 3) XLP 4) IGV 5) GDX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.1% 2) Airlines +2.5% 3) Pharma +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ABVX, LBRT, VICR, AVXL, LW, CALM, HIMS, LUNR, TM, GEV, HMC, PRG, PLAY, STLA, HLF, HCSG, PSIX, TMO, TEL, BKR, PEGA, FWRD, GCT, ARWR, GCT, BKKT, MBX, CLB, GM, LII, PONY, TLN, VITL, RGC, SYM, HNRG, MANH, BYRN, TNL, SG, OKLO, KRUS, MRNA, OII, GD, SEI, RARE, SSTK, FOXF, SSTK, CLS, AAON, CSGP, VTLE, NNE, VST, DNTH, KROS, NVO, ALGN, AXGN, PRKS, ALGN, CNC, YETI, WFRD, MOH, RGEN, ZETA, PGY, NRG, SONY, GLXY, CRMD, VKTX, HOG, DHR, GMAB, HGV, CARR, WB, GOOS, AVTR, AESI, NTLA, MTZ, LQDA, CHYM, BSX, CAKE, WEN, URBN, RTX, CBRL, FUN, ELV, ICLR, VIST, STNG, NATL, GLW, BYON, UPB, WAT, SONO, LEU, BAX, W, OSCR, TIGR, MTUS, PDD, FTI, ALC, DOW, PCAR, AZN, CPB, CUK, STOK, BRKR, PNTG, EFX, DVA, IQV, ING, ARE and RACE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DNUT 2) CARR 3) LW 4) GPRO 5) EXEL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CALM 2) GPRO 3) BKR 4) TEL 5) GEV

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) XRT 3) XOP 4) XLF 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AB)/.77
• (AAL)/.78
• (CNX)/.44
• (BX)/1.09
• (CMCSA)/1.16
• (DOW)/-.17
• (FLEX)/.63
• (HON)/2.66
• (LHX)/2.48
• (LH)/4.17
• (MBLY)/.11
• (MHK)/2.61
• (R)/3.11
• (TSCO)/.80
• (UNP)/2.90
• (VLO)/1.76
• (VC)/2.10 

After the Close: 

• (BYD)/1.66
• (FIX)/4.84
• (DECK)/.68
• (DLR)/1.76
• (INTC)/.01
• (NEM)/1.16 
• (SKYW)/2.36
• (VRSN)/2.20
• (WY)/.11
• (CG)/.89
• (GVA)/1.66
• (MLM)/5.28
• (LUV)/.51 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 226K versus 221K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1954K versus 1956K prior.
• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June is estimated to rise to -.15 versus -.28 in May. 

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for July is estimated to fall to 52.7 versus 52.9 in June.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for July is estimated to rise to 53.0 versus 52.9 in June.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for July is estimated to fall to 52.8 versus 52.9 in June. 

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for June is estimated to rise to 650K versus 623K in May.

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Services Activity for July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB Meeting, weekly EIA natural gas report, Fed weekly balance sheet report, (WOOF) annual meeting and the (BF/B) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.5 -.7
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 64.9% of Issues Advancing, 32.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .81 +12.7% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$230.8M
  
• 130 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
• 56.3% (+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +7.1

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 78.1% +3.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 250.6 +.9%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.7 +.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0 (EXTREME GREED up from GREED) +4.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.9 +5.1%
  
• Vix 15.6 -5.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .73 -16.1%
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 64.0% +26.0 percentage points.
• India 16.0% +7.0 percentage points.
• South Korea  65.0% +14.0 percentage points.
• Canada 28.0% +4.0 percentage points.