Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BNTX)/-2.28
• (CNA)/.97
• (ENR)/.62
• (IDXX)/3.30
• (ON)/.53
• (TSSEM)/.45
• (RIG)/-.01
• (WAT)/2.94
• (W)/.33 

After the Close: 

• (ADTN)/.01
• (ANDE)/.51
• (AXON)/1.45
• (FANG)/2.77
• (EHC)/1.21
• (EQR)/.98
• (HIMS)/.15
• (IAC)/-.33
• (LSCC)/.24
• (MELI)/11.93
• (ODD)/.84
• (PLTR)/.14 
• (SPG)/3.05
• (TDWE)/.52
• (VNO)/.53
• (WMB)/.48 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for June is estimated to fall -5.0% versus a +8.2% gain in May. 
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in May.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for June. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CB Employment Trends Index for July, Loan Officer Survey, (EXP) annual meeting and the (SPB) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• China 3.0% -17 .0 percentage points
• Canada 1.0% -12.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 90.0% +52.0 percentage points. 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 -1.8%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 77.4 -2.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.37% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.3%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.23%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Utility Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.1%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.7 +1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.3 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.7 +3.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(290 of 500 reporting) +9.5% +2.5 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.82 -.05:  Growth Rate +11.1% unch., P/E 22.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +26.0% +3.6 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 457.1 +.57: Growth Rate +21.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.7 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.9 unch.
• US Yield Curve 40.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% -60.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.5% -1.9 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% +19.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.72% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 -5.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 47.0% (-1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for DEC. 10th meeting: 42.4%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• China 11.0% -9.0 percentage points
• Canada 19.0% +6.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 91.0% +53.0 percentage points. 

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -430 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/utility sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +2.8% 2) Computer Hardware +2.0% 3) Disk Drives +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NEGG, APLD, PI, AMSC, CGNX, MOD, EBAY, RSI, CVNA, ALNY, CHRW, APLS, NATL, TMDX, INDV, CRWV, ARGX, INOD, META, TSSI, RBLX, AGCO, LNC, PSIX, NVCR, VSEC, IART, WDC, NBIS, HII, XYL, HUT, RTO, LECO, TAL, NCLH, RGTI, GNRC, EZPW, APP, BBVA, MNRO, COUR, THG, AM, PTC, AM, ALL, TFX, STX, SUI, RDDT, FFIV, DSP, BWA, CMRE, AAMI, AME, ZBRA, ABVX, ERJ, MDGL, GEL, CYTK, ITT, GFL, WTW, U, OKLO, SKWD, CORZ, SYM, OMCL, CRTO, VNT, ETD, SCCO, MAS, SPGI, WAY, NET, EXAS, CRTO, ERO, MMS, APTV, APPF, LASR, EXPD, ABBV, ICUI, CNTA, SIMO, ORCL, SAIL, VSAT, AAON, KGC, TEX, WING, BNL, IDCC, SCI and AR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GNRC 2) ALGN 3) CFLT 4) SHAK 5) WDC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PI 2) EBAY 3) CVNA 4) META 5) CGNX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) MSTY 3) AIQ 4) URA 5) SMA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CBOE)/2.44
• (CVX)/1.73
• (CHD)/.86
• (CL)/.90
• (D)/.68
• (XOM)/1.56
• (FLR)/.55
• (GWW)/10.07
• (KMB)/1.66
• (LYB)/.81
• (MGA)/1.17
• (NWL)/.24
• (OSK)/2.95
• (RBC)/2.74
• (REGN)/8.43
• (TROW)/2.15
• (CNH)/.14
• (GT)/.02
• (OMI)/.28 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to fall to 105K versus 147K in June.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to rise to 4.2% versus 4.1% in June.  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to rise to 49.5 versus 49.0 in June.
• ISM Prices Paid for July is estimated to rise to 70.0 versus 69.7 in June.
• Construction Spending MoM for June is estimated unch. versus a -.3% decline in May.
• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for July. 

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for July is estimated to rise to 16.0M versus 15.34M in June. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, (SNAP) annual meeting and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge 

• JUST IN: Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno releases photos of the woman who was brutally beaten in Cincinnati after a local council member said she deserved the beatdown. Councilwoman Victoria Parks said she was "grateful" that the woman, "Holly," was beaten unconscious. Moreno is now calling out local leadership for failing the victims of the horrific attack. "This is Holly. She wanted to have a nice evening out with friends. Instead, she got this. Holly gave me permission to release the photos so that others will never suffer what she did," said @berniemoreno. "We need and deserve change." (video)
• ICE Looking To Hire Personnel, Offers $50,000 Signing Bonus.
• Trump Envoy Says This Time Oil Sanctions On Russia Will 'Bite'.
• *TRUMP SAYS HE REACHED A TRADE DEAL WITH SOUTH KOREA. *TRUMP TO IMPOSE 15% TARIFF ON GOODS FROM SOUTH KOREA.
• *MICROSOFT 1Q CAPEX SEEN AT MORE THAN $30 BILLION, CFO SAYS.
• 10 Examples That Show That Our Society Is Going Completely Insane.
• META Soars 10% To New All Time High After Smashing Estimates, Guiding Revenue, Capex Higher.  
• The 'War Phase' Of This Fourth Turning Has Arrived.
• Micrososft Shares Soar Higher On Strong Cloud/AI Earnings.
• *MICROSOFT'S AZURE SURPASSED $75B IN REV. THIS YEAR, UP 34%.
• *META 2Q EPS $7.14, EST. $5.89 *META 2Q REV. $47.52B, EST. $44.83B *META 2Q OPER INCOME $20.44B, EST. $17.24B *META SEES 3Q REV. $47.5B TO $50.5B, EST. $46.2B *META SEES FY TOTAL EXPENSES $114B TO $118B, SAW $113B TO $118B *META SEES 2025 CAPEX $66B-$72B VS PRIOR $64B-$72B.
• *MICROSOFT 4Q REV. $76.44B, EST. $73.89B *MICROSOFT 4Q INTELLIGENT CLOUD REV. $29.88B, EST. $29.1B *MICROSOFT 4Q AZURE & OTHER CLOUD REV EX-FX +39%, EST. +34.2%.
• Dollar Soars To 2-Mo Highs, Stocks Stumble As Hawkish Powell Trumps Dovish Fed.  

• @TheTranscript 

• $MSFT CFO: Data center demand continues to outpace supply. "Revenue from Azure AI services was generally in line with expectations. And while we brought additional data center capacity online this quarter, demand remains higher than supply".
• $META CEO on their SuperIntelligence bet: "We're just gonna push very aggressively on all of that. But but at some level, yeah, is this is they're sort of a bet in the trajectory that we're seeing, and those are the signals that we're seeing. We're just trying to read it". 
• $NVDA CEO: Elite AI talent can yield OpenAI-scale value, making high compensation entirely rational. "The big idea is that...150 or so AI researchers can probably create, with enough funding behind them, an OpenAI". 

• @LauraLoomer 

• The NYC Mayoral election is fake. The Democrats in the race are all secretly pulling for Mamdani. They haven’t put up any effort to win because it’s part of their strategy to gaslight the American people into thinking Americans in the most iconic city in the world willingly voted for Islamic jihad and Communism. Andrew Cuomo is working to get @ZohranKMamdani elected. I believe this was the plan all along. Cuomo ran to split the vote on purpose to help Mamdani win. In return, Mamdani will offer him a position to help Cuomo rehabilitate himself in the Democrat Party.The NYC Mayoral election is fake. The Democrats in the race are all secretly pulling for Mamdani. They haven’t put up any effort to win because it’s part of their strategy to gaslight the American people into thinking Americans in the most iconic city in the world willingly voted for Islamic jihad and Communism. Andrew Cuomo is working to get @ZohranKMamdani elected. I believe this was the plan all along. Cuomo ran to split the vote on purpose to help Mamdani win. In return, Mamdani will offer him a position to help Cuomo rehabilitate himself in the Democrat Party.

• @WallStreetApes

• Vanderbilt University, Office of the Dean, is caught on camera bragging about being “heavily federally funding”. Despite taxpayers paying their bills, each student pays roughly $65k per year to attend. She admits to breaking federal law. Still doing DEI seminars, just secretly. (video)

• @GenFlynn

• EVERY SINGLE INTELLIGENCE ANALYST IN THE UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY KNOWS WHAT LOW CONFIDENCE MEANS. IT MEANS THERE WAS NO INTELLIGENCE, NO EVIDENCE, ZERO, NOTHING. YET, THESE CRIMINAL CONSPIRATORS RUINED MANY PEOPLE’S LIVES AS WELL AS UNDERMINED THE WILL OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. THEY CONDUCTED A COUP TO DESTROY A @POTUS AND TO FUNDAMENTALLY TRANSFORM AMERICA. MANY PEOPLE MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE. STARTING WITH @BarackObama. WHERE THE BUCK STOPPED, YOU LIED TO AMERICA AND THE WORLD!

@GordonGChangRemove all Chinese equipment from our infrastructure. Do we really want Beijing to surveil us all the time? (video)
Quote

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: Brown University has agreed to pay out $50 MILLION after the Trump admin cracks down on their woke, discriminatory policies. Brown will also BAN men from women’s sports and ditch DEI, opting for merit-based admissions MORE OF THIS! (video)

• @MAGAVoice 

• BREAKING!! The PELOSI ACT just passed out of Committee Banning Congress from trading stocks THIS SHOULD BE ABSOLUTELY ILLEGAL INVESTIGATE NANCY PELOSI.

• @EmeraldRobinson

• Here's MORE PROOF the Susie Wiles Administration is still hiring Trump's enemies. They don't have a real vetting process or counter-intel team to protect Trump. Trump had FOUR YEARS to figure it out but he's still surrounded by snakes and fools.

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: It has just been revealed that the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel - once "confident, boasting about its business" - is now instilled with FEAR. Business has come to a screeching halt under Trump. ENORMOUS VICTORY RIGHT HERE. "People are scared to come here...There's more Border Patrol, more National Guard...The business - it's been hit hard." Trump is GREAT for business - but HORRIBLE for cartel business. That's what I voted for. (video)

• @TonySeruga

• Desperate Vaccine Cabal Moves to Eliminate All Nonmedical Vaccine Exemptions for School. Faced with collapsing vaccine uptake, the Bio‑Pharmaceutical Complex chooses force over freedom. The Bio‑Pharmaceutical Complex is in panic mode.

• @newstart_2024

• Politico has uncovered a secret experiment to dim the sun, sponsored by billionaires and crypto moguls. In 2024, a group of scientists from the University of Washington attempted to launch a project in California to block the sun's rays using artificial clouds. The experiment failed due to the negative reaction of local officials: it lasted only 20 minutes instead of the several months it was originally planned for. Politico writes that no one will stop there - the attempt will probably be repeated.

• @AmyKremer

• Cobb County, GA Election Shenanigans! The Cobb County Board of Elections just pulled a fast one… 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐡𝐢𝐣𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐁𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐚 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧! No public notice. The new board had NOT been seated. Two seats waiting to be appointed. Just a shady, partisan power grab to install handpicked leadership…

• @RetroCoast

• When Saddam Hussein's nephew buys a $50 million palace, we immediately recognize it as corruption. But when Nancy Pelosi buys a $50 million vineyard in Napa Valley, we think it's okay. That's called "brainwashing the public."

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• China 20.0% -36.0 percentage points
• South Korea  100.0% +27.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 38.0% +9.0 percentage points. 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 79.8 -1.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.35% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.3 -3.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.13%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.84%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.24%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.