Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Financial/Utility Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 +.06%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% +4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.21% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.9 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.2 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.5 -6.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.58 +.18:  Growth Rate +12.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 469.52 +.18: Growth Rate +24.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.3 unch.
• US Yield Curve 57.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.9% -1.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 -4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 48.3% (-6.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.5%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +117 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (FN)/2.64
• (PANW)/.89
• (XP)/2.34 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for August.

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to 34.0 versus 33.0 in July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Needham Group Virtual Industrial Tech/Robotics/Clean Tech Conference, EnerCom Denver Energy Investment Conference and the Rosenblatt Age of AI Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Japan’s economy expanded faster than expected last quarter, avoiding a recession and giving embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba some rare good news as he fends off calls to resign. 
• In the first two weeks of August alone, Masayoshi Son has added $9 billion to his fortune as SoftBank’s AI bets sent its shares to record highs.
• Hedge funds added exposure to technology giants including Microsoft and Netflix in the second quarter, a stretch that saw an initial surge in volatility due to President Trump’s trade policies. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day
  .

• @ZeroHedge 

• Apple Plans AI Robots, Smarter Siri And Home Devices In Bid To Regain Momentum.
• Treasury Sanctions Mexican Cartel Associates For Timeshare Scams Targeting Older Americans
  .
• Bank Of America Nixes Rule That Led To 'Debanking' Of Conservative Religious Groups.
• The Most Insidious Trick Of AI Language Models.
• 'Shadow Government' Bureaucrats Exposed For Stoking Woke Insanity In Red States.
• Medical Journal Rejects RFK Jr.'s Call To Retract Paper.
• Guess What Leftists Have Up Their Sleeve In Response To Trump's D.C. Crime Crackdown...  
• China Will Ask Firms Run By Central Government To Buy Unsold Homes.
• Misinformation Scholarship Exposed As Liberal Activist Grift.
• *UNITEDHEALTH CLIMBS 7% POSTMARKET AS BERKSHIRE DISCLOSES STAKE.
• *BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY ADDS UNH, NUE, LEN, DHI, LAMR IN 2Q: 13F. Uncle Warren going long housing: we are getting lots of rate cuts folks.  
• *US MONEY-MARKET FUND ASSETS HIT RECORD $7.19 TRILLION AT ICI.
• Intel Soars On Report US Government To Buy Stake In Chip Giant.
• Bitcoin & Bullion Dumped As Hot PPI Prompts Plunge In Bonds. 

• @CNBC

• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Michael Burry joins Buffett's Berkshire in scooping up UnitedHealth shares.
• Appaloosa’s David Tepper reveals new position in Intel, raises bets on UnitedHealth.   
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Applied Materials, UnitedHealth, Intel and more. 
• D1 Capital adds positions in homebuilder D.R. Horton, industrial names. 

• @TheTranscript 

• $CSCO Cisco CEO: "As we move towards Agentic AI and the demand for inferencing expands to the enterprise and end-user networking environments, traffic on the network will reach unprecedented levels. Network traffic will not only increase beyond the peaks of current chatbot interaction, but will remain consistently high with agents in constant interaction."
• Applied Materials double beat. CFO: "We are expecting a decline in revenue in Q4 FY 25 driven by both digestion of capacity in China and non- linear demand from leading-edge customers given market concentration and fab timing". $AMAT: -11% AH.

• @MarioNawful

• U.S. PREDATOR DRONE HUNTS CARTELS 600 MILES INSIDE MEXICO. A US Customs and Border Protection MQ-9 Guardian flew over 600 miles into Mexico, orbiting near La Nueva Familia Michoacana cartel strongholds before going dark. The rare public mission, reportedly cleared by Mexico, comes as the Trump administration pushes to use military force against cartels. The deep-penetration flight highlights growing cross-border cooperation, and a more aggressive stance, in targeting cartel operations far from the border. 
• TRUMP’S DOJ IS COMING FOR FAUCI’S FAVORITE COVID STUDY. Trump’s team is now digging into a science paper that said COVID definitely didn’t come from a lab. Why? Because the authors said one thing in public... and something very different in private. They even thanked Fauci for his “leadership,” then got a big fat grant right after. The paper became super famous, used to shut down “lab leak” talk. But now 5,700 scientists want it retracted. Turns out, even science can get shady when politics and money are involved.

• @ShadowofEzra

• A WEF-linked bioethicist is pushing to genetically modify humans to be allergic to meat, claiming it would slash livestock emissions and help fight climate change. He argues people are simply eating too much meat.

• @charliekirk11 

• Why is the @NFL actively trying to tick off their most loyal fans? What is the reason for this? (video)

• @Libsoftiktok

• Watch Muslim Socialist NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani get BOOED out of a restaurant in Staten Island. "There's the communist... You are not welcome... you Jew-hating piece of sh*t... you hate this country." (video)

• @ChiefNerd

• WEINSTEIN: “The idea that we get myocarditis from the COVID shots is really standing in for a much starker reality … Myocarditis is the symptom of damage to the heart done by our own immune systems in response to the cells in the heart producing a foreign protein”. (video)

• @RodDMartin

• TRUMP TO REFILL STRATEGIC PHARMA RESERVES. President Trump just signed an order to refill America’s strategic reserve of drug ingredients — and cut our 95% dependence on China for lifesaving meds. Biden left it EMPTY. Trump’s filling it FAST. THREAD.
• CHINA’S DIRTY BATTERY SECRET. The CCP isn’t “competing” in the global battery market. It’s parasitizing it — using subsidies, theft, and predatory pricing to crush rivals and control a resource nearly as strategic as oil. Here’s the ugly truth. (thread)

• @drdanchoi

• Again, one of my biggest regrets was voting for President Obama in 2008 as a medical student & celebrating the passage of the ACA Little did I know the carnage it would wreck on the medical profession and my future patients. I had no idea then that the ACA was written to strip physicians of their autonomy, boost insurer profits & drive healthcare consolidation End result 15 years later is a more expensive healthcare system with less competition resulting in lower quality, less efficient care for patients. Coverage is not care! @realDonaldTrump has opportunity of lifetime to fix what President Obama broke.

• @DefiantLs

• DC resident on Trump cleaning up the city: “The best thing to happen to this city in decades”. (video)

• @TonySeruga

• BOMBSHELL: Kash Patel Uncovers Obama Deputy AG Sally Yates’ Email Ordering FBI Agents to Shut Down Clinton Foundation Corruption Investigation — “SHUT IT DOWN”.

• @GuntherEagleman

• It is PATHETIC our House and Senate GOP leadership has yet to pass any secure election laws. @SpeakerJohnson and @LeaderJohnThune are FAILING.

• @Trump_Army_

• BREAKING: President Trump has dropped a bombshell by directing the Department of Justice to launch a full-scale investigation into ActBlue, the Democratic Party's powerhouse fundraising platform, over allegations of widespread election fraud and illicit foreign contributions. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.89 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.0 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.04%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Sector Rotation, Technical Buying, Financial/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.9 +2.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .51 -6.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 79.9 +1.6% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 -.37%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 194.2 -.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.18 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.9 +2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 138.0 -27.0

• Total Put/Call .79 +6.8%

• NYSE Arms .90 -25.0%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$358.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.1 +.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 353.6 -.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 215.0 +9.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 +.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 117.6 -.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 78.0 +1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.1 -.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 145.7 +.14%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 76.4 -1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.75 basis points -.25 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -10.5 basis points +2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.5 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 583.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 53.0 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.3%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% +5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.22% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.1 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.0 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.3 -1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.9 -1.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(458 of 500 reporting) +11.3% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.40 +.11:  Growth Rate +12.5% unch., P/E 22.5 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 469.24 +.18: Growth Rate +24.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 unch.
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.5 -.6
• US Yield Curve 55.25 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.6% +.9 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.6% (-10.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 45.9%(+8.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +185 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +93 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -2.9% 2) Alt Energy -2.2% 3) Airlines -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LINC, BWIN, VKTX, LMND, SARO, CAVA, AI, BIRK, XPEV, GAMB, PSKY, JBS, LITE, ROG, TGLS, VIAV, SBET, ECG, WBTN, BROS, ARWR, FN, PSIX, TTD, DE, AAP, ONON, CRNC, SDM, SPIR, SPRY, NICE, CRWV, TPR, COHR and IBTA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) COHR 2) COP 3) TPR 4) DE 5) WULF

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ATNF 2) IBTA 3) COHR 4) IRBT 5) KLC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLF 3) SMH 4) VHT 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electrification +3.8% 2) Pharma +.7% 3) Internet +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NEGG, DLO, TRMD, WB, QURE, HROW, TATT, CLBT, MESO, AIRO, VIPS, TECX, TBPH, SIRI, LB, GH, RIGL, APLS and CCIR 

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMCR 2) DLO 3) COP 4) WULF 5) DE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DDS 2) BLSH 3) DLO 4) XNET 5) WULF

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) IGM 3) CIBR 4) XBI 5) BAI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume