Sunday, August 24, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge  
  • @CNBC
  • @GatewayPundit
  • @FoxNews  
  • @MarioNawful
  • @CharlieKirk11
  • @songpionganq
  • @newstart_2024 
  • @catturd2
  • @healthranger
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @Humanspective
  • @sayerjigmi
  • @visegrad24
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.75 -2.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 -.34% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 82.5 +.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.27% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.2 +.9%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.35%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, August 23, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @MarioNawful 
  • MISSISSIPPI DECLARES PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY OVER INFANT DEATHS. Mississippi has officially hit the panic button. The state just declared a public health emergency after its infant mortality rate jumped to 9.7 deaths per 1,000 live births, the worst it’s been in over ten years. Since 2014, 3,527 babies have died before reaching their first birthday. The biggest causes: birth defects, babies born too early or too small, and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome.
  • CHINA TO MAKE EVERY CHINESE KID AN AI WHIZZ. China just made AI training mandatory in schools, starting in first grade. By high school, kids will know how to train models, build neural networks, and do data analysis, while American kids are working on their multiplication tables. They’re adding courses in robotics, machine learning, and even digital ethics for high schoolers. The goal? turn the tables on the West and take control of humanity's future. (video)
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (FCFS) and (QXO).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @CNBC
  • @cjbakermd
  • @GatewayPundit 
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @RodDMartin
  • Because this is how Democrats believe you should be pro-woman: by erasing women. (pic)
  • @HealthRanger
  • @charliekirk11 
  • @gurgavin
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @CollinRugg
  • @catturd2
  • @DC_Draino 
  • @MidwesternDoc
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • @visegrad24
  • @TaraBull808
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Friday, August 22, 2025

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 +.3%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.26% -7.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.19% -5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.1 +.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -4.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.1 -.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +11.0% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.43 +.15:  Growth Rate +12.9% unch., P/E 22.4 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 471.76 +1.15: Growth Rate +25.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.30 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 56.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.5% -.7 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 +6.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.1% (-2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 48.3%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +127 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility/industrial/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (PDD)/15.53
  • (NSSC)/.27 
After the Close: 
  • (HEI)/1.13
  • (SMTC)/.40 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July.

10:00 am EST

  • New Home Sales for July is estimated to rise to 630K versus 627K in June. 
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Aug. is estimated to fall to -3.0 versus .9 in July. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Jefferies Semi/IT Hardware/Communication Tech Summit and the Evercore ISI Semi/IT Hardware/Networking Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, August 21, 2025

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.75 USD/Metric Tonne -.42%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.45 -.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.6 +.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 -.05%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.04%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.