NYSE Composite Index:
- Volume Running -22.0% Below 100-Day Average
- Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.5 +3.9
- 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
- 35.1% of Issues Advancing, 62.5% Declining
- TRIN/Arms .87 -33.1%
- Non-Block Money Flow -$93.9M
- 86 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
- 60.1% (-2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
- Average 14-Day RSI 63.9 -.7
Other:
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 83.0 +1.0%
- Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.6 +.6%
- Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 159.6 +.3%
- CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (GREED) +1.0
- 1-Day Vix 6.7 -29.8%
- Vix 14.3 +.5%
- Total Put/Call .82 -1.2%
Around X:
Night Trading
- Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 -1.0 basis point.
- China Sovereign CDS 41.75 -2.0 basis points.
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%.
- Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 -.34%
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 +.03%.
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 82.5 +.4%.
- US 10-Year Yield 4.27% +1.0 basis point.
- Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.2 +.9%.
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.35%.
- S&P 500 futures -.12%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Around X:
- MISSISSIPPI DECLARES PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY OVER INFANT DEATHS. Mississippi has officially hit the panic button. The state just declared a public health emergency after its infant mortality rate jumped to 9.7 deaths per 1,000 live births, the worst it’s been in over ten years. Since 2014, 3,527 babies have died before reaching their first birthday. The biggest causes: birth defects, babies born too early or too small, and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome.
- CHINA TO MAKE EVERY CHINESE KID AN AI WHIZZ. China just made AI training mandatory in schools, starting in first grade. By high school, kids will know how to train models, build neural networks, and do data analysis, while American kids are working on their multiplication tables. They’re adding courses in robotics, machine learning, and even digital ethics for high schoolers. The goal? turn the tables on the West and take control of humanity's future. (video)
- Had bullish commentary on (FCFS) and (QXO).
- Because this is how Democrats believe you should be pro-woman: by erasing women. (pic)
Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 +.3%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.26% -7.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.19% -5.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.1 +.1 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -4.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.1 -.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +11.0% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.43 +.15: Growth Rate +12.9% unch., P/E 22.4 +.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 471.76 +1.15: Growth Rate +25.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 -4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.30 +12.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
- US Yield Curve 56.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.5% -.7 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 +6.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.1% (-2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 48.3%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +127 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility/industrial/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long