Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANF)/2.30
• (DCI)/1.02
• (SJM)/1.93
• (KSS)/.30
• (PLAB)/.38
• (RY)/2.40
• (WSM)/1.81 

After the Close: 

• (A)/1.37
• (BILL)/.41
• (COO)/1.07
• (CRWD)/.83
• (FIVE)/.62
• (GES)/.16
• (HPQ)/.75
• (NTAP)/1.54
• (NTNX)/.33
• (NVDA)/1.01
• (SNOW)/.27
• (TCOM)/6.03
• (URBN)/1.48
• (VEEV)/1.90 

Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,197,250 barrels versus a -6,014,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,491,250 barrels versus a -2,720,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,015,250 barrels versus a +2,343,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.68% versus a +.2% gain prior.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Deutsche Bank Tech Conference, (RKLB) annual meeting, (BOOT) annual meeting and the Jefferies Semi/IT Hardware/Communication Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -23.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.2 +2.7
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 48.1% of Issues Advancing, 48.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .78 -24.8% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$45.2M
  
• 84 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 60.0% (+1.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.4 -2.5

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 81.6 -1.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 254.9 +.4%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.2 +.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 60.0 (GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 6.4 -20.2%
  
• Vix 15.0 +1.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -7.0%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• China is sending a key trade negotiator to the US this week, the Wall Street Journal reported — indicating talks between the two sides are resuming after they agreed on a truce in their dispute.
• Trump says the US has more leverage over China on trade than the other way around, citing airplane parts as a key item Washington has to counter Beijing’s restrictions on rare earths. 
• Hyundai will increase its investments in the US to $26 billion through 2028, as it seeks to expand autos, steel and robotics production.
• The American Iron and Steel Institute has asked the White House to intervene in a $500 million deal in Brazil that could hand China greater control over global nickel reserves.
• New York Fed President John Williams said the US economy’s neutral interest rate may not be much different than before the pandemic, given the structural factors that have kept a lid on rates haven’t gone away.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• Why More Farmers Are Turning To AI Machines. 
• Those record Russell 2K shorts will hurt.
• *TRUMP: PUT ALL COUNTRIES WITH DIGITAL TAXES ON NOTICE. *TRUMP THREATENS ADDITIONAL TARIFFS OVER DIGITAL TAXES.
• First Human Case Of Flesh-Eating Screwworm Detected In Sanctuary State Of Maryland. 
• Lisa Cook'd: Trump Fires Fed Governor For "Potentially Criminal Conduct" Creating Another Opening On Fed Board.
• The US just collected a record $22.5BN in tariffs in August. Annualized $270BN. (graph)
• "Centrus is competing for funding from the U.S. Department of Energy to expand U.S. enrichment capacity." Competing with whom? How much you need? $5BN? $10BN? $20BN? Done.
• *US SECURES $50B BOEING & GE AEROSPACE DEAL WITH KOREAN AIR.
• Venezuela Masses 15,000 Troops At Sensitive Border Areas Amid U.S. Naval Build-Up At Sea.
• UNREAL: Chicago Mayor Johnson says throwing violent criminals in jail is "racist." "It is racist! It is immoral! It is unholy!" (video)
• Some Med/Nursing Schools Still Require COVID-19 Vaccine. 
• "Not Out Of The Woods Yet": The Complete Q2 Hedge Fund Monitor.
• FDA Suspends License For Chikungunya Vaccine After 'Serious Adverse Events'
  .
• For the first time since 2022, TSLA is in the Goldman hedge fund VIP list again. (table)
• Netanyahu Confirms, Apologizes For Mass Casualty Hospital Attack In Gaza: 'Tragic Mishap'.
• Stocks Slump Amid 'Last Week Of Summer' Lull, Bitcoin Battered, Black Gold Bid.  
   

• @CNBC 

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open lower after Wall Street declines.
• Google says Fox channels to go dark on YouTube TV if agreement isn't reached.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Interactive Brokers to join S&P 500, replacing Walgreens.

• @MarioNawful 

• RAPE REPORTS SKYROCKET IN EUROPE OVER 20 YEARS. In England and Wales, police logged approx. 7,900 rapes in 2000. By 2023, that figure was 72,100 - nearly a tenfold surge. France saw a similar climb, from about 7,500 reported rapes in 2000 to more than 34,000 in 2023. Germany’s numbers rose more slowly, from approx. 8,000 to 9,500, while Poland actually fell, from ~2,200 in 2000 to 1,390 in 2023. So, what’s behind the spikes? Critics point to immigration from third countries and accuse governments of looking the other way.
• WHO’S PAYING FOR UKRAINE? AMERICA LEADS THE MONEY GAME. The U.S. has given Ukraine the most aid so far, sending over 114 billion euros since early 2022. The European Union comes second with more than 63 billion euros, followed by Germany, the UK, Japan, and Canada. This aid includes weapons, money to keep Ukraine’s economy running, and humanitarian help like food, medicine, and shelter. Analysts say the support shows who Ukraine’s strongest backers are, while also sparking debates over costs and commitments.  

• @FinanceLancelot

• BREAKING: BlackRock continues dumping hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin.

• @newstart_2024

• The World Economic Forum's dangerous evolution is complete. Klaus Schwab is out. Now, Larry Fink—the CEO of BlackRock, managing $12 TRILLION of YOUR money—is steering the ship. This is the same man who said companies must "FORCE behaviors" on society. His plan? Weaponize his trillions to push a radical "green" agenda, openly colluding to crush energy companies that don't comply. It's a cartel, not capitalism. While you were distracted by politics, the world's largest asset manager never stopped their mission to reshape the global economy in their image. This isn't investment. It's ideological coercion on a planetary scale. The WEF's "Great Reset" is now being bankrolled by your own pension fund, your 401k, and your home loan. Wake up.
• Bill Gates: “All the progress we’ve made is at risk.” A stunning admission. The architect of a global medical monopoly watches his empire tremble. The “progress” he fears losing isn’t public health—it’s control. The push for experimental mRNA was never about charity; it was the key to a lucrative, permanent dependency. The walls are closing in. The world is waking up...

• @MikeBenzCyber

• Not letting up on this. The State Dept has the chance to do something world historic, making USAID Files publicly available the same way ODNI is doing with the JFK Files and Russiagate Files. We need this immediately, and there has to be a sense of urgency. (video)

• @DiedSuddenly_

• BREAKING: RFK advisor Dr. Aseem Malhotra says the Trump administration is preparing to pull the COVID vaccine off the U.S. market “within months.” “It could [happen] in a number of stages, including learning more about the data. But given the increased talk of vaccine injuries in the past few weeks among the administration, it could also come with one clean decision.” Malhotra said there is also an ongoing review into vaccine injuries by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP).

• @DanielTNiles

• I wrote in a post last Sunday August 17th: “I continue to believe the mkt melts up till Thanksgiving with easy money addicted investors emboldened by signs at Jackson Hole of upcoming rate cuts. Despite important economic releases remaining such as PCE, CPI and PPI before the next Fed rate decision on 9/17, I believe the Fed will focus on whatever data they need to justify a cut.” Powell did in fact signal rate cuts this past Friday and focused on employment over inflation.

• @JakeCan72

• Mexican Senator Lilly Téllez went on Fox & dropped a truth bomb: “Most Mexicans want U.S. help against the cartels — the only ones who don’t are narco-politicians.” And who blows a gasket? President Sheinbaum, calling her a traitor. Those who scream the loudest. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• Insurance companies are now using drones to secretly fly over and photograph the homes they insure without the homeowners knowing. The images are then fed into AI systems that flag potential risks or maintenance issues. People are suddenly losing coverage after being told, “We see mold on your roof,” or “We see broken tiles,” or “Trees are touching your house.” (video)

• @GlobalMktObserv

• China is going all-in on nuclear energy. China currently has 29 reactors under construction, ~5x more than India, which is second. India has 6, while Russia, Egypt, and Turkey each have 4. The nuclear race is no longer global. It’s Chinese. (graph)

• @FRS_org

• China’s footprint in Africa is evolving - from mainly economic engagement to growing military influence, all to safeguard its vast interests and nationals. Ports, railways, schools, satellites: Beijing blends infrastructure, education, and culture with a dense diplomatic network.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.5 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.90 +.16%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 81.7 -1.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.2 +1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.55%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.15%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Profit-Taking, Transport/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.19%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.28% +3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.19% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.5 +.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.3 -1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +11.0% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.82 +.39:  Growth Rate +13.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.4 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 472.34 +.58: Growth Rate +25.8% +.8 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
• US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% +1.3 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.2% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 47.7%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -199 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorsts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles +2.3% 2) Electrification +1.6% 3) Disk Drives +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AEHR, SUPX, VTLE, EPSM, NTLA, RKLB, RBLX, PRM, DYN, IREN, BROS, FN, DK, MGNI, TSEM, BYRN, DQ, TYRA, CSIQ, USAR, WLDN, PARR, TDUP, SOFI, ARGX, VG, GFI, NTES, UUUU, DED, CVI and WYNN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GPRO 2) UP 3) STT 4) BYND 5) NTNX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AEHR 2) STSS 3) OPEN 4) VTLE 5) IPI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLY 3) XLI 4) ARKK 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BEKE)/1.49
• (AMWD)/1.33
• (WOLF)/-.70 

After the Close: 

• (BOX)/.31
• (MDB)/.67
• (OKTA)/.84
• (PVH)/2.0

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Aug.
• Durable Goods Orders for July is estimated to fall -3.8% versus a -9.4% decline in June.
• Durables Ex Transports for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-air for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.8% decline in June. 

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for June is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.2% decline in May.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for June is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.34% decline in May. 

10:00 am EST

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to -11.0 versus -20.0 in July.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Aug. is estimated to fall to 96.5 versus 97.2 in July. 

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Aug.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, M2 Money Supply MoM for July, weekly API crude oil stock report, 2Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Deutsche Bank Tech Conference and the Evercore Semi/IT Hardware/Networking Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST