Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -1.0% 2) Pharma -.7% 3) Medical Equipment -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DCI, VSCO, SN, BBY, TD, QGEN, DKS, FL, SBH, NTNX, VEEV, BBWI, URBN, COO, DOMO, HMY, HRL and ARX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OPAD 2) WEN 3) MLTX 4) SILJ 5) SNOW

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HRL 2) COO 3) SN 4) CHTR 5) CNC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) VOX 3) SOXX 4) VCR 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +3.7% 2) AI/Innovation +3.0% 3) Nuclear +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PSTG, SNOW, PAHC, BILL, BBW, TCOM, RGTI, AEHR, VEON, DFDV, CPRE, TIGR, XP, TIGR, SMWB, CEPU, PGY, BURL, MDB, LITE, RMBS, LEU, OPRX, CRWV,  BE, OKLO, KC, FN, DDOG, ASPI, UPST, TVTX, IREN, APP, GTLB, CFLT, MNDY, ATAT, GDS, TGS, FIVE, KYIV, NOW, PAM, BMA, ESTC, LI, ALGM, BBAR, AEVA, A, STVN, AFRM, TSEM, YPF, SKYT, MTSR, VKTX and MGNI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GTES 2) ESTC 3) PBR/A 4) WYNN 5) PSTG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SNOW 2) PSTG 3) PAHC 4) CELC 5) BBW

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) GDX 3) FDN 4) ITA 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BABA)/14.16
• (FRO)/.44 

After the Close: 

• None of  note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in June.
• Personal Spending for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in June.
• The PCE Core MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in June.
• Advance Goods Trade Balance for July is estimated at -$90.0B versus -$86.0B in June
• Wholesale Inventories for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in June.
• Retail Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in June.   

9:45 am EST

• MNI Chicago PMI for Aug. is estimated to fall to 46.5 versus 47.1 in July.

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence readings for Aug. 

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Aug., weekly US Baker Hughes oil rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the Dallas Fed PCE for July could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.5 +1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.0 +1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.44%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 +.1%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.50 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 81.4 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.23% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.0 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.13%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.15%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.34%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.49 -.03%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.24% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.17% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.6 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.7 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.5 -.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.4 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(476 of 500 reporting) +10.9% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 289.06 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.3% unch., P/E 22.4 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 472.88 +.27: Growth Rate +26.5% unch., P/E 32.4 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 -9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.1 -.2
• US Yield Curve 61.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% -.1 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.0% +1.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.79 +7.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.0% (-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 48.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -77 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/utility/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.5% 2) Energy +1.9% 3) Retail +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MDB, KSS, SERV, SATS, GOOS, NCNO, AHL, SLDE, DOMO, DCI, AEO, PLAB, CBRL, VSAT, ALB, NN, ESTC, RY, CRWV, PTGX, PI, FROG, NEXT, CVI, REXR, CVI, SIG, JOYY, VTLE, MTSR, INTA, CDNA, WFRD, VSCO, CFLT, CSTL, WYNN, TRMD, PHR, SNOW, PSTG, ELAN, NTNX, BOX, SSYS, SBH, VEEV, MNDY, 

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WBA 2) VSAT 3) XP 4) PSTG 5) SERV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KSS 2) MDB 3) GOOS 4) VIR 5) ELMD

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) XLF 3) XLV 4) IGV 5) NLR

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume