Today's Headlines

Around X:

• @Business

• The US will use this year’s gathering of the United Nations General Assembly to push other countries to adopt more restrictions on asylum, in keeping with President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration.
• China launched two investigations targeting the US semiconductor sector ahead of planned talks between the two nations on trade and other issues. Listen to that and the latest stories on Bloomberg News Now. 
• Fitch Ratings downgraded France, indicating the upheaval of repeated government collapse has locked the country into an enduring battle to contain a swelling debt burden.
• Next week’s Fed meeting will test how far that classic logic still applies — in a cycle that keeps defying it.
• Hedge funds chopped their bullish position on US crude to the lowest on record as the OPEC+ alliance’s latest decision to boost production compounded already-gloomy forecasts that the world is heading toward an oil surplus this year.
• The IPO market kicked into high gear this week, with sextet of deals raising more than $4 billion in the busiest period since 2021.
• The Trump administration is asking Congress for an extra $58 million to bolster security for the executive and judicial branches following the fatal shooting of conservative figure Charlie Kirk, according to a White House official.
• What happened to the global economy this week — in charts. 

• @Zerohedge 

• Trump Backs Off Promise To Sanction Russia, Issues Ultimatum To NATO.
• Germany To Add More Than 100K Troops To Army In Preparation For War With Russia.
• Seems like the anti-depressants start to feel like is is de-caff and sentiment is experiencing a "clinical deterioration", despite ATHs. The chart shows GS US Equity Sentiment Indicator of investor positioning. 
• Zelensky's Incentive Problem: Unmasking The Media's Darling.
• "After posting about it". What exactly did they post? This is the Washington Post dehumanizing conservatives to the point where a conservative who is murdered isn't the victim, the liberals celebrating his murder are the real victims. 
• Charlie Kirk's Widow Breaks Silence: "You Have No Idea What You Just Unleashed Across Nation"
  . 
• Researchers Found Unvaccinated Children Healthier Than Vaccinated, Didn't Publish Findings.
• To End Political Violence, The Marxist Framework That Legitimizes It Must Be Rooted Out.
• 2 In 5 Young Adults Are Taking On Debt For Social Image, To Impress Peers, Study Finds.
• China To Help Local Government Repay $1 Trillion In Unpaid Bills To Private Sector.
• Trump's Crackdown On Prescription Drug Ads: What To Know.
• Rickards: All Eyes On An Irrelevant Fed. 
• CENTCOM Chief Sits Down With Ex Al-Qaeda Commander One Day After 9/11 Anniversary. 
• Poverty Ticked Up Among US Seniors In 2024.
• So many people will be fired over the Kirk blowback, the unemployment rate will skyrocket and Trump will get his 100bps rate cut.  
• His father turned him in, after consulting with his pastor, knowing the president and the state governor are calling for the death penalty. Father is in law enforcement. Mother is a social worker. Military history family. Registered Republican parents. Action oriented DNA. See a problem and fix it family. A good family. I cannot even imagine being his father and making that decision. College was enough to radicalize his son. A single year of professors dripping their toxic propaganda and lies into his ears poisoned his brain. He fell in with the wrong crowd. Joined antifa Discord rooms. Took photos wearing Communist shirts. He argued with his family over dinner that Kirk was a Fascist and an existential threat. And then made a plan. He engraved antifa sayings on the bullet casings. 
• Trump Warns His Patience With Putin Is "Running Out Fast".
• *FRANCE CUT TO A+ FROM AA- BY FITCH; OUTLOOK STABLE.
• Shootings definitively connected to Discord: • Uvalde School Shooting – 21 killed, 17 injured. • Parkland School Shooting – 17 killed, 17 injured. • Buffalo Supermarket Shooting – 10 killed, 6 injured. • Highland Park Parade Shooting – 7 killed, 48 injured. • Apalachee High School Shooting – 4 killed, 9 injured. • Abundant Life Christian School Shooting – 3 killed, 7 injured. • Perry High School Shooting – 1 killed, 7 injured. • Graz School Shooting – 10 killed, 11 injured. • Aracruz School Shooting – 4 killed, 11 injured. • Covenant School Shooting – 6 killed, 1 injured. • Charlie Kirk Assassination – 1 killed. Discord is where these shootings were coordinated and glorified. When will Discord be held accountable?
• Polymarket Eyes $10 Billion Valuation As Prediction Market Preps US Comeback.
• Here's What Goldman's Top Traders Have Been Watching This Week.
• "Billions In Losses": Retail Crime Has Surged 93% In Progressive Cities.
• America's Grid Is Nearing Its Breaking Point.
• Kremlin Confirms Ukraine Talks 'On Pause' As Zelensky Rules Out Giving Up The East.
• Here is the roadmap to Charlie Kirk’s assassination…
• Exorcism Nigh.
• 'Bad News' Sparks Surge In Rate-Cut Odds; Lifts Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bullion On The Week 

• @MarioNawful

• TUCKER CARLSON: CHARLIE KIRK BEGGED TRUMP NOT TO GO TO WAR WITH IRAN. "Charlie went to the Oval Office and said 'I understand Iran is dangerous. But a war with Iran could truly hurt our country'. That was an unpopular position. He did not need to express it. But he did. He had no hidden agenda. He was not mad at anyone. He stood for his country and for doing the right and wise thing. He took massive abuse from his own donors. It was not hostile. They simply had a different view and made it clear.
• NETANYAHU: CLAIMS ISRAEL KILLED CHARLIE KIRK ARE ABSURD AND INSANE. "That's insane. That's insane. Israel also changes the orbit of the moon. Israel pushes the sun. I mean, the whole thing is not only insane, it's so absurd, so stupid, so ridiculous you can't believe people are saying this. They just found the perpetrator. They'll get to the bottom of this. But when you hate Jews, when you hate the Jewish state, you're willing to say anything and promote these absurd rumors." (video)

• @BarronsOnline

• Had bullish commentary on (MP) and (TWLO).

• @IGSquawk 

• Weekend markets update: #DAX 23711 -0.01% #DOW 45834 +0.03% #NASDAQ 24076 -0.05% #FTSE 9268 +0.00% #HANGSENG 26279 -0.17% #EURUSD 11726 -0.08% #GOLD 3646 +0.07% #USOIL 6278 +0.57% #TSLA 39518 -0.01%.

• @CNBC

• Tim Cook details how Apple will put its $600 billion domestic manufacturing investment to work.
• Tim Cook explains why Apple is investing heavily in Corning's glass factory.
• OpenAI's spending spree is powering the tech industry. Oracle is the latest winner.

• @LauraLoomer

• President Trump posted this on Truth Social. (pic)

• @Worldsource24

• Democrats in the House shout "no" for a moment of prayer for Charlie Kirk. (video)

• @realstewpeters

• A few days ago: “The DOJ should release ALL the Epstein files.” Today: Charlie Kirk was assassinated. (video)

• @TeaSweet11386

• I call your flight and raise you the real shooter. Charlie's "security" needs to be brought in and integrated immediately. Their actions speak volumes. (video)

• @Iansmithfitness

• People get upset for not accepting the official government narrative of Kirk’s death - as if questioning a government that has done nothing but lie is somehow disrespectful. If anything, blindly accepting the cute gift-wrapped narrative is. Charlie was a man who encouraged questioning. Let’s walk through some of the contradictions and questions.... (list)
  

• @RyanMattaMedia

• The odds are 1 in 2 billion that George Zinn was a witness to the 9/11 attacks where he described seeing the planes hit the towers, then he got arrested in 2013 for emailing a bomb threat "joke" to the Salt Lake City Marathon shortly after the Boston bombing, and he was detained and questioned as a person of interest after Charlie Kirk's assassination on Sept. 10, 2025. (video)

• @iAnonPatriot 

• South Koreans chanting “we are Charlie Kirk”.. This is wild.. (video)

• @SenseReceptor  

• Michael Savage nails the insane absurdity of the FBI's Charlie Kirk assassination narrative: "Something's wrong...we're supposed to believe a guy is on the run after killing Charlie Kirk, and he pauses in the woods to reinstall a barrel and then he leaves it for us to find?" (video) 

• @Bannons_WarRoom

• Bannon: This Is Charlie Kirk's Twitter Account 7 March In The Year Of Our Lord 2022. Charlie Kirk Tweets Out. "Utah Governor Spencer Cox Should Be Expelled From The Republican Party". (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Influencer says he’s getting DMs from people of every race in America and they all say the same thing, after the Charlie Kirk assassination they are done being Democrats. “Hey, Democrats, man, y'all cooked, bro — I be looking at my news feeds, man — Just go ahead and sit out for these little 20 years” “As of right now, the Latino community, Asian community, black community, white community, f*cking Armenian community, I even have Filipino Americans in my inbox telling me they with it too. It's over.” (video)
• BREAKING: Both Donald Trump assassin Thomas Crooks and Charlie Kirk assassin Tyler Robinson have ZERO digital footprint. They think we’re idiots. 

• @bennyjohnson

• Charlie Kirk’s legacy is inspiring memorials around the entire world: - Sydney, Australia. - United Kingdom. - Madrid, Spain. - Poland Parliament. - Austria. - Germany. - New Zealand. - Tel Aviv. - United States in hundreds of locations. From prayer vigils on college campuses to murals and memorials around the globe, Charlie’s influence is spreading further than ever. He gave his life fighting for America’s future, and now his impact is multiplying. The political assassination of Charlie Kirk has backfired. He is more powerful now than ever. That’s the power of a martyr.
• This is 100% confirmed. Charlie Kirk Killer, Tyler Robinson had a boyfriend who identified as transgender. This man is cooperating with the FBI and has turned over all electronics and messages. I’m hearing there is much more to come. Yes, this is now officially trans violence.
• No one seems willing to say it, so I will… The modern Democratic Party is not ‘sorry’ when political violence happens. They want it to happen. They create the conditions for it. Here’s the playbook: 1. Corporate media demonizes you, calling you Hitler, fascist, deplorable. 2. Left-Wing dark money groups fund, arm, and radicalize people to target you. 3. They hype violence, glorify killers, and manipulate minds with drugs and social media. 4. One of their radicalized, over-medicated loaners decides they can die a hero if they just “kill Hitler”. Repeat

• @HealthRanger

• How many times in history has a high-profile assassination been passed off as a "lone wolf" scenario when, in reality, it was run by an intelligence organization? Nearly EVERY TIME. If you think this guy acted alone, your brain might be vaccine damaged. 

• @MJTruthUltra 

• Plural… THEY killed him… I couldn’t help but notice all the plurals she used… you? “The evildoers responsible for my husband’s death… have no idea what they’ve done. THEY killed him because he preached a message of patriotism, faith, and of God’s merciful love. THEY should ALL know this… if you thought that my husband’s mission was powerfully before, you have no idea…. The cries of this widow will echo around the world like a battlecry.” Lot of pluralizations: - Evildoers. - They killed him. - They. - All. (video) 
• Marco Rubio is heading to Israel to discuss Israel’s strike in Qatar… “the president is not happy about it.” (video) 

• @cxb_doge

• Blue Sky users are openly calling for Elon Musk to be “next” after Charlie Kirk. The Left has become the party of hate & violence.

• @MyLordBebo

• One guy cleaned up the crime scene, right after Charlie Kirk got hit. Why? (video)

• @I_Am_JohnCullen 

• I think @FBIDirectorKash might have another big problem. As @JailBroski points out, below, the photo they shared of the weapon appears to be a Remington 700 short-action, not a Mauser 98 model. Why is that a problem? A Remington 700 Short-action can't chamber a .30-06 round. (pic)

• @ImMeme0

• Following Charlie’s assassination, this TikToker encouraged others to kill his wife as well, saying: “Someone needs to get the wife too. Fvck her.” Yet TikTok seems to have no issue with videos openly inciting violence. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• Charlie Kirk’s beautiful three-year-old daughter looked up at her mother and asked, “Where did Daddy go?” With tears in her eyes, her mother gently told her that her father is on a work trip with Jesus. (video)
• President Trump has announced that George Soros and his entire network will be investigated under RICO charges. He claims Soros is behind the funding, training, and radicalization of young people, fueling terror and extremism. (video)
• An eyewitness says the shot that took the life of Charlie Kirk was fired right after he was asked about trans violence, as if it were coordinated. He believes it wasn’t just one person acting alone, but several people working together. He also claims that someone in the crowd confessed to the shooting right after it happened, even though they didn’t have a weapon.

• @gc22gc

• BANNON: Kash Patel is not just a colleague, he’s a very dear and close friend. I think the world of Kash. We don’t know what restrictions he’s under or even his ability to fully articulate what’s happening here. But whoever authorized one of the biggest Trump haters in this country, the governor of Utah, Cox, is a disaster. A true Trump hater, one of the worst in the Republican Party. Folks in Utah need to understand this man has embraced and pushed some of the most dangerous ideologies out there. (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• A drone was flying directly above when Charlie Kirk was assassinated, capturing EVERYTHING. Guess who owns it? (Hint: NOT a consumer drone.) (video) 
• FBI SILENT ON JET THAT VANISHED OFF RADAR AFTER KIRK ASSASSINATION. Minutes after Charlie Kirk was killed, a private jet (N888KG) lifted off just 12 minutes away. Thirty minutes later, it ILLEGALLY disappeared from radar only to reappear back in Provo. Now articles confirm the FBI is being pressed on this very plane. Was it the assassin’s getaway jet?

• @TPV_John

• One of the hallmarks of an “inside job” or “operation” is signaling. That comes in different forms. The man with a white shirt and hat, as well as the guy in the black shirt behind Charlie Kirk are CLEARLY hand signaling about a sniper and giving the “Go” signal to someone right before the shot is taken. Being former Military myself, I can confirm that is exactly what it looks like is taking place here. This isn’t only a red flag, it is a GLARING, IN YOUR FACE RED FLAG. More people absolutely need to be questioning this. (video)

• @ScottPresler

• Meet Lexi Kuenzle. She’s one of the good ones. Yesterday, in front of a nurses station — with 8 (eight) nurses & a PATIENT — Dr. Matthew Jung said in front of everyone, “I hate Charlie Kirk. He had it coming. He deserved it.” Lexi, a registered nurse, was the ONLY one that spoke up: “You’re a doctor. How could you say someone deserved to die.” Lexi said you could hear a pin drop & no one said anything, including the patient. She reported the incident to management & — after she got home — posted about it & Dr. Matthew Jung on her private Instagram. She received an email from her union representative saying that she needs to look for another job.

• @robbystarbuck

• Scary themes I’m noticing in the psychopaths who we see celebrating Charlie Kirk’s death: - Transgender. - Nurses. - Teachers. - Work in government. Think about the nurses and teachers part. How many psychopaths are intentionally radicalizing kids or hurting Republican patients?

• @wallstengine

• UK and US will sign a tech deal during Trump’s visit next week, with Nvidia, OpenAI, CoreWeave, and BlackRock set to announce major UK data center investments, per Bloomberg.

• @GSBG01

• BREAKING: Official police reports indicate that in excess of 3 MILLION patriots are on the streets of London. 'Who's streets our streets'. Britain is wide awake. (video)

OpenVAERS:  

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,026,503 Reports(+728 from prior report) Through July 25th, 2025.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,597.0 +1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 45,927.0 +1.2%

• NASDAQ 22,177.9 +2.1%

• Russell 2000 2,407.2 +.6%

• NYSE FANG+ 16,015.0 +1.9%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 228.7 +3.5%

• Wilshire 5000 65,352.0 +1.7%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,636.4 +2.6%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,993.3 +.7%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 891.01 unch.

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 255.6 +.1%
  

• NYSE Technology 6,787.5 +5.1%

• Transports 15,696.9 -.1%

• Utilities 1,102.6 +2.1%

• MSCI Europe Banks 98.7 +4.1%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 52.2 +3.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 238.75 +.47%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 126.5 +.24%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 579,961 +.92%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.1 +123.8%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 2,114 +1,554

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.9 +2.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 102,428 -6.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,987,861 +3.94%

• Total Put/Call .79 +8.3%

• OEX Put/Call 1.22 -4.4%

• ISE Sentiment 169.0 +11.0

• NYSE Arms .72 -44.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.4 +4.0%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .71 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +8.0 basis points 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -4.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .21 -84.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 13.5 -14.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.7 -4.5%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.9 -2.7%

• Smart Money Flow Index 23,031.5 +2.7%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  86.1 +5.5

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.303 Trillion +.6%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$2.706 Million

• AAII % Bulls 28.0 -14.4%

• AAII % Bears 49.5 +14.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 55.0 (NEUTRAL) +3.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 300.3 -.01%

• Crude Oil 62.62/bbl. +1.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 198.42 +.99%

• Natural Gas 2.94 -2.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%
  

• Heating Oil 228.99 -.05% 
• Newcastle Coal 100.7 (1,000/metric ton) -7.0%

• Gold 3,649.0 +1.7%
• Silver 42.3 +3.1%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 474.2 +2.0%

• Copper 465.5 +2.5%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 337.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,900.0 USD/metric tonne unch.

• CME Lumber  587.0 +.3%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,393.9 +1.6%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton unch.

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.1% +.1 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.1 -2.9 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.24 +2.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 353.0 -28.2%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 -17.2%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $206.0 Billion($1,279.50 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$1.0 Billion
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +12.6% unch.

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.15 +1.9:  Growth Rate +11.5% +.7 percentage point, P/E 22.6 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% +.5 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.62 +8.75: Growth Rate +18.8% +2.2 percentage points, P/E 32.9 +.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -8.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.5 -.4 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 92.5%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 97.61 -.15%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,842.7 +.33%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 116,202.0 +4.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.6 +.3%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 +.2%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 50.5 -7.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.06% -2.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.558 Trillion +.06%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.777 Billion +1.9%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.0 -.1%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 195.6 -1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 81.0 -3.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.7 -1.7%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.1 -7.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 132.8 -3.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.3 +2.1%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.7 -6.6%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.4%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 125.6 +.3%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.8% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% +30.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% -10.0 basis points
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.0% +5.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.0% +16.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +9.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -36.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.25 -2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.25 +.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 47.9 -4.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 200.0 -1.6% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 221.0 +22.0 
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.9 -6.7%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 120.5 -4.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 140.2 -2.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 124.0 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 589.0 +7.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .49 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.8% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,400.8B -.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 240,500 +4.2%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.4 -1.8%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.54% -5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 297,700 +9.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.6% +50.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +6.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $92.0M -10.2%

• Nationwide Gas $3.19/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,111.0 +6.7%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,043.6/40 ft Box -2.9%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,125.3 -2.1%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 47.5 +35.7%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 63.9 +3.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 253,497 -11.6%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,610,879 +35.8% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 48.0% unch.

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.1%

Leading Sectors

• Disk Drives +10.7%

• AI/Innovation +5.6%
• Education +4.9%

• Computer Hardware +4.9%
  

• Gold & Silver +4.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Restaurants -1.8%

• Foods -1.8%
  

• Medical Equipment -1.9%

• Homebuilding -2.3%
  

• Gambling -3.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (33)

• IONQ, QSG, WBD, RGTI, BTDR, KMTS, AMRK, DFDV, SERV, BKSY, RKLB, QBTS, QUBT, TSLA, DAKT, BMNR, INOD, CIFR, CENX, PGY, APLD, MARA, BILI, PSKY, MU, EH, JMIA, AA, SMCI, SLG, CAMT and JOBY

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)

• PFE, SNPS, DKNG, LULU, RH, RBRK, KALV, BMA, SLNO, TARS, RIVN, FERG, MRNA and BNTX

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Cut Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -183 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my financial/tech/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (HAIN)/.03

After the Close: 

• (PLAY)/.91

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to fall to 4.5 versus 11.9 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BofA Financials CEO Conference, Wells Fargo Consumer Conference and the RBC Industrials Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day

• @ZeroHedge    

• Mexico's 50% Tariff On Chinese Cars Will Set Off Global Butterfly Effects.
• US Deficit Explodes In August Despite Rising Tariff Revenues As Government Spending Soars.
• Exodus: Affordability Crisis Sends Americans Packing From Big Cities.
• Brazilian Supreme Court Issues Harsh 27-Year Sentence For Bolsonaro, Trump Responds.
• EU To Resist Trump Pressure To Hit China & India With 100% Tariffs.
• US State Department Warns Visa Holders Against Cheering Charlie Kirk's Assassination.
• 77% of Republicans believe it is always unacceptable to feel joy at the death of someone they oppose, while only 38% of Democrats share this view (YouGov).
• BREAKING: Per multiple federal sources to @FoxNews, the suspect arrested in the grisly machete beheading of a motel manager in Dallas, TX yesterday is a Cuban illegal alien who was released into the US by the Biden admin in January despite having an active deportation order. I'm told YORDANIS COBOS-MARTINEZ was released from ICE custody by the Biden admin on 1/13/2025, one week before Trump took office, due to "no significant likelihood of removal in the forseeable future".
• BREAKING: The Secret Service and NYPD Counterterrorism Task Force have a manhunt underway for a person who has made threats against President Trump, who is attending tonight's game at Yankee Stadium. The FDNY and NYPD have issued alerts to their members to use caution.
• *OPENAI EQUITY STAKE IN PUBLIC BENEFIT CORP VALUED AT $100 BLN.
• *MICROSOFT, OPENAI REACH PRELIMINARY UNDERSTANDING ON ALLIANCE. 
• Of Buggy Whips And AI Chips In PA.
• "He Was Definitely Murdered": Watch Sam Altman Squirm As Tucker Grills Him Over Whistleblower Death. 
• *SUPERMICRO BEGINS VOLUME SHIPMENTS OF NVIDIA BLACKWELL ULTRA.
• Father Of Ukrainian Girl Brutally Murdered In US Missed Funeral Due To Martial Law. 
• They want to dehumanize us, so they can demonize us. They want to demonize us, so they can kill us. The mainstream media is 100% complicit in Charlie Kirk’s death. (video)
• Calm Consumer Prices Send Rate-Cut Odds Soaring As Gold Tops Inflation-Adjusted Record High.

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to trade higher, tracking Wall Street gains.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Stock futures are flat after rate-cut hopes send market to new highs: Live updates. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Adobe, RH, Super Micro Computer & more. 

• @TheTranscript 

• "Microsoft & OpenAI have signed a non-binding MOU for the next phase of our partnership. We are actively working to finalize contractual terms in a definitive agreement". $MSFT: +2% AH.
• Adobe CFO: "[We] delivered record Q3 revenue, with strength in subscription revenue across both Digital Media and Digital Experience segments. We’re raising our FY25 total revenue and EPS targets..." $ADBE: +3% AH. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.5 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 39.5 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.47 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.5 +1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.03% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.06%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.