Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.65 -.12%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.07% +4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.96% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.1 -2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.2 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.9 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +5.5% -2.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.71 +.17:  Growth Rate +11.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.95 +.26: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.04 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 unch.
• US Yield Curve 52.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% -10.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.1% +1.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.76 +4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 91.0% (+16.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 86.6%(+17.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) AI/Innovation -2.2% 2) Disk Drives -1.8% 3) Road & Rail -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• JOBY, SLG, ARW, VCEL, UBER, MANU and DEC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FLG 2) CNK 3) ROIV 4) LAZR 5) LDI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HUIZ 2) MANU 3) RICK 4) RDW 5) SMLR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IYW 2) XLP 3) XLV 4) ARKW 5) SOXX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electrification +3.5% 2) Alt Energy +2.4% 3) Banks +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LYFT, BGTL, OPEN, QBTS, BHVN, BAND, GRRR, ROIV, SOC, PSN, ORKA, BIDU, WDAY, CGON, QFIN, GSAT, KSPI, PLAY, ACMR, RGTI, BE, COCO, SKYT, BRZE, PCVX, KC, GDS, ENVA, SATS, ZG, MRVL, Z, DRD, TSEM, CNTA, CHA, INFY, ZK, ANAB, RITM, ACVA, TRU, NBHC, PDD, SEI and  HDB

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NUVB 2) LAZR 3) PLUG 4) HOUS 5) ABR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FGNX 2) NFE 3) LYFT 4) BE 5) ROIV

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ITA 2) BAI 3) SMH 4) XRT 5) MAGS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DRI)/2.00
• (FDS)/4.13 

After the Close: 

• (FDX)/3.63
• (LEN)/2.10 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 240K versus 263K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1950K versus 1939K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 1.9 versus -.3 in Aug. 

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Aug. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.1% decline in July. 

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CDC Vaccine Meeting, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, DA Davidson Industrials/Services Conference, (AS) investor day, (KFY) annual meeting and the (TTWO) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 +.1
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 67.4% of Issues Advancing, 29.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .91 -21.6% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$110.2M
  
• 115 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 61.3% (+2.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.1 +4.4

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 82.2 +.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.4 -.8%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.2 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 19.2 +17.2%
  
• Vix 16.6 +1.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 +5.3%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Microsoft, OpenAI and other American companies announced plans to spend tens of billions of dollars on tech infrastructure in the UK, part of a series of business deals that coincide with President Donald Trump’s visit to the nation this week.
• The US, Canada and Mexico are set to formally begin consultations ahead of the high-stakes review of their regional USMCA trade accord next year, the US and Mexico announced.
• Fears that artificial intelligence will force companies to spend more on security software are helping to drive demand for Netskope’s IPO.
• Lilly’s obesity pill prompted enough weight loss in a large clinical trial to be meaningful for patients and have far-reaching implications for the field, doctors said. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge    

• Kash Cooks "Fraud" Adam Schiff, Booker Blows Stack, And Epstein Who?
• AEP is a beast. 
• CDC Advisers To Vote On 3 Vaccines: What To Know.
• Who Is Who In Tomorrow's Fed Dot Plot.
• BREAKING: Searches for "help with mortgage" surpass 2008 housing crisis. 
• Bondi Faces Rare Conservative Rage For 'Hate Speech' Comments.
• Elderly Suspect In Charlie Kirk Assassination Tried To "Distract Police" From Real Shooter. 
• 'Nihilistic Violent Extremism' Spreads: FBI's Patel Confirms 1,700 Domestic Terrorism Cases Being Investigated.
• How The Left Programmed Young People To Hate.
• Stocks End Red Ahead Of The Fed; Bonds, Bitcoin & Bullion Bid.

• @CNBC

• China keeps tight grip on rare earths, costing at least one company 'millions of euros'.
• Asia markets set to track Wall Street losses as investors await Fed meeting decision. 
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• StubHub to price IPO at $23.50, valuing company at $8.6 billion.
• Stock futures are little changed as traders await key Fed rate outlook: Live updates.
• CNBC Daily Open: Nearly everything slows down the day before the Fed meeting. 
  

• @MarioNawful  

• BOYCOTT STARBUCKS ERUPTS AFTER CHARLIE KIRK NAME BAN. A viral video shows Starbucks’ computer system refusing to print “Charlie Kirk” on cup stickers, flagging it as “political.” An employee confirmed the system is programmed to block his name entirely. The clip ignited outrage, with BoycottStarbucks trending as thousands accused the company of targeting Kirk even after his assassination. Supporters are now ordering his favorite Starbucks drink in his honor, turning the boycott into both a protest and a tribute. Critics say the move exposes Starbucks’ double standard, pointing out the company openly embraced left-wing causes in the past.
• TRUMP: NETANYAHU DID NOT ALERT ME TO ISRAEL STRIKE. Reporter: "Did Netanyahu speak to you directly to alert you Israel was going to be striking Hamas in Qatar?" Trump: "No he didn't." Reporter: "How did you learn about it?" Trump: "Same way you did." (video)
• ISRAELI LEADER: WE'LL PUT RESTRICTION ON THE SOCIAL MEDIA AND U.S. SHOULD DO THE SAME. Leader of Israel’s opposition Democratic Party, Yair Golan: "The next thing I will do, we will do, is to put restriction on the social media in a way that not allowed to make brutal propaganda. Because this is a worldwide problem. And it should be initiated by the U.S. The place where all the big firms is settled. Facebook and X and all the rest. This is a major problem for democracy all over the globe. And we need to treat it, seriously." (video)
• BILL ACKMAN FIRES BACK AT CANDACE OWENS OVER CHARLIE KIRK CLAIMS. Bill Ackman is denying Candace Owens’ claim that he staged an “intervention” to pressure Charlie Kirk on Israel: “This afternoon Candace slandered me by accusing me of ‘staging an intervention’ with Charlie Kirk in which ‘threats were made’… I have never threatened Charlie Kirk, Turning Point or anyone associated with him. I have never blackmailed anyone, let alone Charlie.” (pic)

• @disclosetv

• NEW - EU Commission now admits that the COVID mRNA injections were released for use in humans without "complete" safety data.

• @newstart_2024

• You’re about to close on a house. Then a mysterious LLC swoops in with an all-cash offer. You just lost a home to BlackRock. RFK Jr. reveals how BlackRock, Vanguard, & State Street—a single corporate hydra—are on a mission to own everything. They already own 89% of the S&P 500. Now, they’re buying up American single-family homes at a terrifying pace. On track to own 60% by 2030. Their goal? The WEF’s “Great Reset”: “You will own nothing, and you will be happy.” This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s a corporate takeover of the American Dream. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• WOW!! Donald Trump just literally confirmed the Pacific Palisades fires were a land grab. Gavin Newsom is in the final stages of stealing fire victims land to build low income housing. Absolutely insane. (pic)

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• KENNEDY: "Who, if anyone, did Epstein traffic these young women to?" PATEL: "There is no credible information, none ... that he trafficked to other individuals." Then why is Ghislaine Maxwell in prison? (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• Candace Owens warns she is ready to go to war against anyone who thinks they can step in to replace Charlie Kirk. She promises to release every single text message and expose everything. Owens tells them to back off now, claiming she knows exactly who they are. "Over my dead body, which I’m sure can be arranged." (video)

• @BGatesIsAPsycho

• American Politicians including Marjorie Taylor Greene & RFK Jnr have been been discussing Geo-Engineering for years. Now Chemtrails are being discussed in the House - this is Republican Tim Burchett leaving the Chemtrail Hearing. The Conspiracy Theorists were right - they always were. How bad is it? (video)

• @RealPatrickWebb

• BREAKING: Multiple members of the Trump administration are reportedly calling for FBI Director Kash Patel to be fired, per Fox News.

• @HustleBitch_

• IS THIS IT? Is this officially the DUMBEST thing the U.S. government has ever tried to force the American people to believe? (pic)
• BREAKING: THE ASSASSINATION SITE IS COMPLETELY GONE - CRIME SCENE OFFICIALLY ERASED. In less than a week, the exact spot where Charlie Kirk was shot and killed has been demolished, rebuilt, and opened to foot traffic. The blood hasn’t even dried but the crime scene has already been buried. Since when do we rebuild an assassination site mid-investigation? (video)

• @MAHA_Action

• Big Pharma is terrified of RFK Jr. Tomorrow they’re staging a coordinated attack in the Senate to try to take him down. Pick up the phone and call the senators on this list. Tell them how much MAHA and RFK Jr. mean to you. Every call matters—RFK Jr. needs our help right now. (pic)

• @AFpost

• President Trump has invited Israeli PM Netanyahu to the White House on September 29th, which will be his 4th visit since Trump’s inauguration 8 months ago.

• @NicHulscher

• BREAKING: Fugitive Vaccine Researcher Behind Infamous “No Autism Link” Study ARRESTED for Stealing $1 Million from CDC. The very foundation of the “no autism link” narrative rests on research tainted by both criminal activity and scientific fraud. THREAD. (pix)

• @catturd2

• BREAKING! Luigi Mangione’s charges have been dropped down to 2nd degree m*rder.. This is a freaking joke. (pic)

• @WallStreetMav

• Among "progressives" (the left) 50% believe it is somewhat justifiable to assassinate Elon Musk. 56% believe it is somewhat justifiableto assassinate President Trump. 14% believe it is completely justifiable to assassinate President Trump. (video)

• @DowdEdward

• I am just going to leave this here. (pic)

• @EmeraldRobinson

• Will Turning Point release the footage from the camera that was apparently positioned behind Charlie Kirk on the fatal day? (video)

• @MattWalshBlog

• Get rid of her. Today. This is insane. Conservatives have fought for decades for the right to refuse service to anyone. We won that fight. Now Pam Bondi wants to roll it all back for no reason. The employee who didn’t print the flyer was already fired by his employer. This stuff is being handled successfully through free speech and free markets. This is totally gratuitous and pointless. We need the AG focused on bringing down the left wing terror cells, not prosecuting Office Depot for God’s sake. (video)

• @Red_Pill_US

• When will they release the footage from the camera behind Charlie, or has it already been classified? (pic)

• @wideawake_media

• Bill Gates' lab-made butter is due to hit the shelves in 2027. "It looks, smells, and tastes like the butter we're all familiar with, but without the farmland, fertilisers, or emissions." Bill Gates: "The idea of switching to lab-made fats and oils may seem strange at first, but their potential to significantly reduce our carbon footprint is immense." "This is really about how we feed our species and heal our planet at the same time." No, this is really about getting rid of agriculture and seizing control of the global food supply, as a means of controlling the global population. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 35.75 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.03 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.64 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 82.0 +.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.03% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.37%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.07%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.