Stocks Surging into Final Hour on AI-Induced Corporate Profit Margin Expansion Hopes, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Construction Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.58 -.13%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.10% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.97% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.6 +4.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.3 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.6 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +5.7% +.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.83 +.12:  Growth Rate +11.8% unch., P/E 22.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 487.17 +.23: Growth Rate +19.1% unch., P/E 33.5 +.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .88 -16.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 +.3
• US Yield Curve 53.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.3% -1.8 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 82.3% (+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 51.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +430 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/financial sector longs and emerging markets shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles -.9% 2) Energy -.7% 3) Restaurants -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ARM, CTRI, TME, COCO, COKE, VIST, WDS, IRS, SKE, PAM, NUE, CBRL, SPGI, TGS, DRI, BMA, YPF, SGHC, GGAL, RCAT, FDS and EPSM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DLO 2) XLP 3) SPXU 4) DRI 5) EWC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NUE 2) REPL 3) CBRL 4) STUB 5) DOW

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) IBB 3) IGV 4) XLY 5) GDX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +3.5% 2) Alt Energy +3.1% 3) Construction +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ETNB, NTLA, INTC, METC, TIC, RGTI, CLSK, SLDE, OKLO, CRWD, FORM, CAMT, FORM, SMR, SKYT, SNPS, SLNO, MKSI, SEI, QBTS, AMPX, AMSC, RDN, STEP, RMBS, SNDK, ICHR, AEIS, SERV, CEVA, QUBT, KLAC, NVO, GPRE, AMAT, ASML, BMNR, IONQ, CCRN, SOUN, AKRO, JEF, ACMR, SAP, LULU, GRRR and NEWT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) QSI 2) COMP 3) CNQ 4) NTLA 5) XLI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INTC 2) NTSK 3) CRWD 4) SNPS 5) CDLX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLC 3) SMH 4) BAI 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.9 +3.4
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 65.0% of Issues Advancing, 32.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.01 +31.2% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$136.6M
  
• 128 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 61.8% (+3.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 68.4 +1.3

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.7 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 260.3 +.3%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.2 +1.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (GREED) +5.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.5 -22.2%
  
• Vix 15.4 -1.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -28.3%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Tech, media and finance executives joined President Donald Trump and King Charles III at an elaborate state dinner Wednesday, underscoring efforts to strengthen a US-UK alliance.
• The Trump administration is close to relaxing certain restrictions for liquefied natural gas companies that are part of a sweeping policy aimed at curbing China’s maritime dominance, according to sources.
• The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by just a quarter point will help support the dollar and weigh on currencies across Asia, analysts say.
• A standoff over funding the US government intensified as a counteroffer from congressional Democrats increases the risk of an Oct. 1 shutdown. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.  
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge    

• "Sinclair also calls upon Mr. Kimmel to issue a direct apology to the Kirk family. Furthermore, we ask Mr. Kimmel to make a meaningful personal donation to the Kirk Family and Turning Point USA." (pic)
• PRESIDENT TRUMP IS DESIGNATING ANTIFA AS A MAJOR TERRORIST ORGANIZATION! 
• Sinclair’s ABC stations to Air Special in Remembrance of Charlie Kirk During Jimmy Kimmel Live! Friday Timeslot. Sinclair’s ABC stations will air a special in remembrance of Charlie Kirk this Friday, during the Jimmy Kimmel Live! timeslot. The special will also air across all Sinclair stations this weekend. In addition, Sinclair is offering the special to all ABC affiliates across the country. 
• Explosive-Laden Robots Pour Into Gaza City: 'More Devastating Than Airstrikes'.
• Newsom Folds, Greenlights Domestic Oil Production In California.
• Experts Urge Government Ban On Solar Geoengineering.
• FBI's 'Armed Queers' Probe Just The Start - Lawmakers Urge Treasury To Freeze China-Linked Billionaire's NGO Empire. 

• @CNBC

• Mark Zuckerberg unveils $799 Meta Ray-Ban Display glasses.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to open mixed after Fed cut rates as expected.
• Workday CEO says AI is a 'tailwind' for the enterprise software company.
• Netskope seeks $7.3 billion valuation after cybersecurity firm prices shares at $19.
• Stock futures are up slightly following latest Fed decision: Live updates.
• Here are five key takeaways from the Fed's big interest rate decision.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Cracker Barrel stock falls 10% as company reports mixed earnings after rebrand controversy
  .
  
  

• @MarioNawful

• JIMMY KIMMEL PULLED FROM AIR IN 32 ABC MARKETS AFTER COMMENTS ON CHARLIE KIRK. Nexstar Media Group will remove Jimmy Kimmel Live! from its 32 ABC stations, preempting the show indefinitely after Kimmel’s remarks on Charlie Kirk’s assassination. Nexstar owns or operates 200+ stations across 116 U.S. markets, meaning Kimmel is now blacked out in major cities like Nashville, Salt Lake City, New Orleans, Richmond, Knoxville, Albany, Syracuse, and Harrisburg. Nexstar: “Mr. Kimmel’s comments are offensive and insensitive… We’ve made the difficult decision to preempt his show in an effort to let cooler heads prevail.”

• @Rothbard1776

• Everyone who truly cares about Charlie Kirk and wants to see justice for his tragic murder should be advocating for an EXTREMELY thorough investigation of all the facts, evidence and unanswered questions. I am absolutely appalled and disturbed by the growing list of people who want to see a rushed process by simply relying on the current government narrative without having seen any easily verifiable proof. Why the rush? The evidence may be forthcoming and I hope to see it, but if Tyler Robinson was executed based on what’s been shared with the public so far, are you satisfied beyond any reasonable doubt he’s the lone wolf and no further investigation is necessary? Why are certain people in such a rush? Engagement? Blood lust? Something else? Maybe it’s just me, but personally, some of the things I’d like to know are:

• @newstart_2024

• The mask is off. In a stunning admission, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink boasts of a global business model built on unprecedented access and influence over the highest levels of government—before they even take power. His words reveal a chilling blueprint: leverage control over the retirement funds of nations (from Mexico to Japan to the UK) to position BlackRock as an indispensable "partner." Then, systematically court political candidates, not as a constituent, but as a global financier securing access and influence regardless of who wins. Now, as a new co-chairman of the World Economic Forum, Fink’s influence is set to be formalized and amplified.

• @WallStreetApes

• California Elected Officials are making deals with BlackRock saying they’ll only let BlackRock manage the state’s pension funds if they adopt their Woke Agenda throughout all 50 states in America. “You have elected officials in California who are telling BlackRock that they will not allow them to manage the pension funds from the state of California unless they adopt this woke agenda, as they vote their shares through all of the states. Yes, so they have to manage all of the pension funds in the same manner. They have to vote the shares and speak as a shareholder in the boardrooms in the same manner. That’s right, because when BlackRock is buying shares in Pepsi or in Disney or in Target or in Nike, they speak with one voice, right, California’s voice — That’s exactly what’s driving the invisible hand of the market. No, it is the invisible hand of left-wing government.” (video)

• @sovereignbrah

• The full context of Pam Bondi's "hate speech" comments yesterday is insane. Katie Miller says hatred of conservatives on college campuses led to Charlie Kirk's death. Bondi responds by saying antisemitism on college campuses is the real issue at hand, and what the government needs to be focused on, "especially after what happened to Charlie." She then uses Charlie's death to justify unconstitutional prosecution of "hate speech," and spends the next 40 seconds talking about prosecuting antisemitism. I take back what I said yesterday. I don't think Pam Bondi is an idiot, I think she's working on behalf of foreign interests to clamp down on free speech in America –– and I know for a fact Charlie would've spoken out against it. (video)

• @I_Am_JohnCullen

• Can @SecWar answer this? @PressSec. Why is US Army Bombardier Global 6500 N1098L / AXLE10 descending to 600' above the lake, and just 118 knots, right outside UVU, 3 hours prior to the shooting? Then, it climbed all the way back up to cruising altitude? Why did it descend again, to 335 feet above the lake and 129 knots, just 20 minutes after the shooting, as it returned? Does this aircraft have a history of performing this maneuver, 2x on Wednesdays? Standard HADES stuff?

• @CollinRugg

• Former President Barack Obama starts listing out the things he disagreed with Charlie Kirk on before pointing blame at the Trump White House for political division. Obama also patted himself on the back, claiming his White House never had "extreme views" like Trump's does. What a despicable response. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• “These are released as Nanoparticles that are easily inhaled”. “These are what’s known as Stratospheric Aerosol Injectables”. “This is an attempt to alter the environment”. “These are not Jet Aircraft Flying Commercial Flights”. “Bill Gates call it Dimming the Sun”. No longer a Conspiracy as now Hearings in the US House are happening over Geo-Engineering Activity. To those calling out all those lines in the Sky - you were right - you were always right & you always knew it! (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• CHARLIE KIRK: “I think the DOJ should immediately move to unseal all the Epstein documents. I think every file should be released to the public. Let the American people decide.” MEGYN KELLY: "Put them all out there. Because if there's nothing in there, then we can see there's nothing in there." Hard to believe that was just 2 months before he was assassinated. (video)

• @wideawake_media

• "Bill Gates has donated $50 million to a new company called Terrana Biosciences, and they're going to create a new category of biologically-modified crops." "It's taking RNA from a virus and using it to insert whatever gene they want into whatever crop they want. Once the RNA is inside the plant... it gives it different features, and the company brags that they can create whatever feature they want." "One of their targets is to make it more insect-resistant." "It will not be labelled as modified, and it will not be labelled as GMO, but Bill Gates is betting on making profit by genetically modifying our food without telling us." "Our EPA has already given it the green light." (video)

• @TomFitton

• @JudicialWatch is independently investigating the political assassination of Charlie Kirk.

• @Villgecrazylady

• Why is this not a MUCH bigger story? As @icu_luci noted in another post, pay attention to the woman shrieking nonstop too. Look at how Zinn drops to his knees repeatedly to slow the walk down. Eventually requiring 3 people to walk him. Coordinated chaos. (video)

• @DC_Draino

• Charlie warned us about Utah Gov Cox. He turned this reliably conservative state into the biggest hornets nest of trans extremism out of any red state in America. This Mitt Romney puppet must be held accountable for what he’s done to his state. (pic)

• @Bannons_WarRoom

• Bannon: "How Did The Guy Have Time To Write A Sonnet? I Am Absolutely Not Buying This". (video)

• @nicksortor

• The warm welcome for President Trump in England has been absolutely EPIC! America is finally respected again. Even PIERS MORGAN is impressed: “l've not seen this done for any other world leader. This is unprecedented!” “It's a statement by the Royal Family: we're going to roll out the ultimate red carpet”. (video)

• @VigilantFox

• Tucker UNLEASHES on AG Pam Bondi with a blistering 3-minute rebuttal to her remarks on “hate speech.” The monologue version of Tucker is back. This is EXACTLY what we need from him right now.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 34.25 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.59 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 82.9 -.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.07% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.6 -1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.35%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.51%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.