Stocks Rising into Final Hour on AI-Induced Profit-Margin Expansion Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.08%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.94% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.84 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.0 +.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.4 -1.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) -.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.28 +.25:  Growth Rate +12.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.8 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 488.96 +1.82: Growth Rate +19.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 33.6 +.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.54 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 unch.
• US Yield Curve 53.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.2% -.2 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.66 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 73.4% (-5.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 51.8%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks -1.4% 2) Homebuilding -1.4% 3) Shipping -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HRTG, TIC, AS, TOST, FUTU, Z, KVUE, TIGR, BMNR and QUBT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MBX 2) SEI 3) RR 4) CZR 5) QUBT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) QUBT 2) KVUE 3) COIN 4) ADP 5) MTCH

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLC 3) XLF 4) IYW 5) XAR

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.6% 2) Education +2.6% 3) Computer Services +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MBX, MTSR, KOD, HOUS, BKKT, PRO, ODP, DGNX, APLD, GGAL, BMA, TSSI, FLNC, AG, TER, SKYT, YPF, VOYG, ASPI, SRRK, UMAC, PAM, TGS, PATH, PINC, CSIQ, RCAT, SGHC, SMLR, UEC, VIST, FWRD, NUS, SA, PACS, IRS, NBIS, GRAL, CLW, TGTX, ONTO, B, NTLA, BLZE, CCOI, CHYM, FORM, SCHL, WAB, IREN, BULL, ORKA, ADPT, RIVN, SEI, SHOO, IAG, BTDR, DUOL, CRUS, SYM, LEU, AMAT, AMKR, GDOT, SWKS, ARCT, SOUN, EOSE, UUUU. ARCT, LTBR, ORCL, WDC, RKLB, GPCR, RMBS, ASTS, TSM, WYFI, VKTX, TTD, HUT, STX, ATEX, VKTX, COCO, WYFI, GCT, AAPL, QURE, BBWI, QURE, GME, NVCR, NVDA, REYN, JBL, CVI, SMCI, PPTA, MUX, CMCL, ACIW, KGC, NI and BVN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ADBE 2) UROY 3) HOUS 4) NOK 5) SMLR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MTSR 2) TER 3) PLUG 4) NBIS 5) BETR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) BAI 2) MAGS 3) ARKK 4) XLP 5) VGT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AZO)/50.76
• (APOG)/.84 

After the Close: 

• (AIR)/.98
• (MU)/2.82
• (MLKN)/.34
• (WOR)/.70 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept.
• The Current Account Deficit for 2Q is estimated at -$256.3B versus -$450.2B in 1Q.  

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Sept. is estimated to fall to 52.2 versus 53.0 in Aug.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for Sept. is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 54.5 in Aug. 
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Sept. is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 54.6 om Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, M2 Money Supply MoM for Aug., weekly API crude oil stock report, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, BofA Healthcare Conference, (MCK) investor day, (AFRM) investor meeting, (WOR) annual meeting and the Bernstein Healthcare Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +12.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.1 -2.8
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 40.4% of Issues Advancing, 57.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .85 -30.0% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$122.6M
  
• 95 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 60.6% (-.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.5 -.9

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.1 -1.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 260.9 +.01%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 170.0 +.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (GREED) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 7.7 -27.4%
  
• Vix 15.8 +2.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 +4.0%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• The Chinese government will host a group of US House representatives this week — the first such official visit in six years — as the two countries edge closer to a trade deal following Friday’s phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
• Israel's actions in Gaza have put its ties with Arab countries "under enormous strain," a senior United Arab Emirates official said. 
• Porsche AG is hitting the brakes on electric vehicles, correcting an expensive strategy that’s depressed the luxury-car maker’s margins and is dragging down parent Volkswagen AG. 
• President Donald Trump again urged European nations to “stop buying oil” from Russia before the US increases economic pressure on Moscow.
• The dispersion trade has become one of the most popular strategies among Wall Street hedge funds. Now, some investors are taking the other side of the wager.
• After years of soaring on hopes for a high-tech AI future, the stock market’s latest hot corner is a boring part of the technology industry.
• Apple’s new iPhone 17 Pro is the standout that customers and Wall Street have been wishing for the last half-decade. @MarkGurman gives his first impressions. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @Zerohedge  

• NOW: The true scope of the crowd for Charlie Kirk in Arizona — WOW. Original estimates of 100K bumped to up to *300,000.* This is going to be one of the most remembered days in modern US history. (video)
• The Energy Drink Brand That Won The Most Shelf Space This Year Is... 
• Nuclear Weapons Issue Was Less Pressing Than Netanyahu Claimed Before Attacking Iran: Israeli Media
  .
• Goodbye, Topgolf. Hello, Golf Ranch.
   
• Morgan Stanley On Where Trump's Policies Stand 250 Days Into The Administration
• One Down, More Cuts To Come: Goldman Macro Trader Says 'Real Assets Continue To Be The Trade'.
• Rep. Crockett Slams 'Caucasian' Dems For Honoring 'Racist' Kirk, Likens Him To Confederate 'Relic', Calls Trump 'Hitler'... Again.
• *TRUMP PLANS TUESDAY MEETING WITH ARAB LEADERS ON GAZA WAR: AXIOS. *AXIOS CITES TWO ARAB OFFICIALS IN REPORT OF TRUMP MEETING PLAN
  . 
• A photo has emerged of Nicholas "Sophie" Roske, the trans militant who was convicted in April for trying to assassinate Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2022 when leftists were calling for assassinations as revenge for Roe v Wade
  .  
• Number Of US Student Visas Issued To Asians Tumbles
  .
• BREAKING - The official black lives matter account has posted a video stating that black people “have a right to violence” amid mass outrage over the slaying of Iryna Zarutska at the hands of a black male in Charlotte, North Carolina. Really. (video)
   
• Hartnett: Fed Cutting With Gold, Crypto And Stocks At All Time HIghs, So Here's How You Trade This Bubble
  .
• Germany's Machinery Industry Faces Catastrophic Collapse
  .
• Rate Of Alzheimer's Cases In The US Has Doubled Since 2000
  .
• Watch: UK Cop Grills Woman In Her Own Home Over Facebook Post That "Upset Someone"
  .
• 4 Tactical Thoughts On The Health Of The American Consumer; Goldman.
• Another Week Of Madness: The Left's Reaction To Kirk's Assassination.
• *NETANYAHU: WE WILL FIGHT AGAINST CALLS FOR PALESTINIAN STATE. *NETANYAHU: PALESTINIAN STATE WILL ENDANGER ISRAEL'S EXISTENCE. 
     
• Wow. Things just keep getting worse on German state TV. This segment is supposed to be a weekly religious reflection, so on the weekend of Charlie Kirk’s funeral, they used it to smear him. They brought on a pastor to denounce Charlie as a “right-wing extremist racist” and then go so far as to brand anyone who rejects that smear as the devil. This isn’t some fringe voice. This is the pastor chosen to give the official religious address on state television. Here’s what she said verbatim: “And the poison keeps working, when a right-wing extremist racist is downplayed as a conservative who supposedly inspired the youth. And now it gets even more absurd. Simply stating things as they are leads to the insinuation that one is justifying a murder. That is total distortion. Diabolos, the Distorter. That’s what the Bible calls the devil.” (video)
   
• The man arrested for 'allegedly' firing gunshots at the KXTV ABC TV station in Sacramento, California on Friday, has been released from custody. This is because his crime isn't considered violent in California. With passage of Proposition 57 the following crimes in California are “non-violent” felonies: human trafficking, raping an unconscious person, drive-by shooting, assault with a deadly weapon or firearm, serial arson, exploding a bomb to injure people, solicitation to commit murder, and domestic violence
  . 
• Inside Job 2.0
  . 

• @GatewayPundit

• President Trump Puts Venezuela on Notice: Get These “Monsters” the Hell Out of Our Country or “the Price You Pay Will Be Incalculable!”
• BURYING THE HATCHET? Elon Musk and President Trump Seen Chatting Side by Side at Charlie Kirk Memorial (VIDEO) 

• @FoxNews  

• PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Charlie's murder was not just an attack on one man or one movement. It was an attack on our entire nation."

• @MarioNawful

• EXCLUSIVE | PBD: CHARLIE KIRK LIKELY TURNED DOWN NETANYAHU. While he's not convinced anyone should point fingers at Israel, @patrickbetdavid believes you may as well flip a coin on the question of whether Netanyahu offered Turning Point $150 million to make Charlie Kirk an ambassador of Israeli interests. When was the offer allegedly made? just a month before he was assassinated. "Charlie didn't want to go back to Israel. Israel invited him. He said no to it. Eventually, Bibi even offered $150 million to maybe have Charlie give more pro-Israel messages around the world." (video)
• VIETNAM SHUTS DOWN MILLIONS OF BANK ACCOUNTS OVER BIOMETRIC ID RULES. Vietnam just closed more than 86 million bank accounts because owners didn’t sign up for new biometric ID rules that require face scans to use banking services. The government says it’s all about fighting fraud and money laundering, after police caught a gang using fake scans to move $39 million. Now anyone making transfers over $379 has to pass a face scan, and bigger transactions always need biometric checks. Foreigners living in Vietnam are also caught up, with some having to fly back just to keep their accounts alive. Some people warn this isn’t just about security but could be the start of intense financial surveillance. Is Vietnam being used as a testing ground for what many are now calling the New Banking Order?

• @Breaking911

• WOW! This is the crowd waiting to get into Charlie Kirk’s memorial service at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• NEW: “Governor Gavin Newsom just signed a new law breaking from decades of federal CDC guidance — The governor's new law gives the Golden State the power to set its own immunization schedules”. Democrats are FULLY owned by Big Pharma, this allows California to ignore RFK Jr recommendations. (video)

• @newstart_2024 

• A Stunning Legislative Betrayal: How Big Ag Is Being Granted Immunity. While We Focus on Cereal. Nicole Shanahan just issued a blistering critique of misallocated resources in the public health fight, and it’s a wake-up call everyone needs to hear. While immense time and capital are poured into campaigns against products like Froot Loops, a far more insidious threat is being granted legal immunity state by state—and it’s happening in the shadows. The focus? Glyphosate. Shanahan highlights the alarming recent move in Georgia, where the governor just signed a bill into law shielding manufacturers like Bayer (which acquired Monsanto) from all liability. Let that sink in. (video)

• @Resist_CBDC

• Agenda 2030 can only be enforced if Digital is already in place. “We’re developing ... the ability … to measure their carbon footprint ... where are they traveling, how are they traveling, what are they eating, what are they consuming … individual carbon footprint tracker.“ (video)

• @MDBreathe

• According to the @CDCgov, 90% of healthcare workers defied CDC recommendations and chose not to get last year’s Covid shot. (graph)
  

• @MarinaMedvin

• Mass shooting in New Hampshire — the terrorist yelled “free Palestine” and then committed terrorism. “At least three people were taken to Southern New Hampshire Medical Center by a Bearcat. One man was reportedly shot in the face. The country club was hosting a function and people were also eating at Prime Restaurant when the gunmen entered the facility and began shooting people. A witness reported one of the men yelled, “Free Palestine,” before firing upon the guests.”

• @Nicksortor

• HOLY CRAP! Drone video from above State Farm stadium, showing just ONE of the lines, shows just how many people turned out. And keep in mind, these people KNEW they’d be waiting in an hours-long line. But they made the trek anyway. These folks truly love our country. (video)

• @VigilantFox

• Bill Maher just made the Emmys crowd look like absolute MONSTERS for not saying a single word about Charlie Kirk after his death. “Would it have killed someone to get up there, since they all want to talk about their politics… just to say we had a political assassination this week and that’s wrong? They would have been booed off the stage because he was on the wrong team. So you’re not even allowed to say that. Could you imagine if a left-wing person was assassinated that week? The whole show would have been about that.” (video)

• @HealthRanger

• Wow, look where seven audio signatures cross paths, indicating the likely location of the origin of the sound of the shot. It's much closer than where we're being told: (pic)
• There is no bone in the human body that can survive 3,000 foot-pounds of energy directed into such a small area. Only Wolverine could survive it, but he's not real. Anyone who thinks that neck skin, tissue or even bones can stop and absorb such a large amount of energy moving through such a tiny area of tissue is truly delusional. Yet this is now what we're being told by the same people who claim we should also believe the lone shooter theory. 

• @wideawake_media

• The UK government is desperate to introduce digital ID, under the guise of addressing the same migrant crisis it is helping to facilitating in the first place. Digital ID is THE line in the sand that must not be crossed, under any circumstances. All the other totalitarian digital technologies—including CBDCs, social credit systems, personal carbon allowances and 15-minute districts—rely on digital ID being put into place first. If we ever allow the traitors in government to take us down that road, the only destination it leads to is complete digital enslavement, from which it will be virtually impossible to ever escape. But they can only do that if we comply. DO NOT COMPLY.

• @Rothbard1776

• Call me “insane” if you want to, but the explanation for the lack of an exit wound in the assassination of Charlie Kirk with a high-powered 30-06 rifle is extremely hard to believe. According to one of the surgeons:

• @C_3C_3

• You know the Democrats murdered a future Republican President, right? Charlie shifted 18-29 year old male demographic +44 in just 2 years. Charlie Kirk was that influential.

• @MichelleMaxwell

• Breaking news out of Virginia, and it’s the kind of news that should make every Republican’s heart race with pride! The numbers are in, and they are stunning: conservative, Republican-leaning counties are shattering expectations in early voting, leaving Democrat strongholds in the dust. In Dinwiddie County, turnout is soaring to a jaw-dropping 82%. Goochland is not far behind at 72%. Hanover—rock solid conservative territory—is holding strong at 62%. These aren’t just numbers on a page. They are proof of a movement, proof of energy, and proof that the Republican grassroots is more alive and determined than ever. Now let’s look at the other side.
  

• @dom_lucre

• BREAKING: Governor Gavin Newsome announced through his press office that he is suspending Kid Rock from being able to perform in Golden State California despite Liberals claiming that Disney removing Jimmy Kimmel is unfair. This is an active politician banning the rights of an American citizen. Liberals cry victim as they strike you. Newsom “BECAUSE OF HIS HORRIFIC MUSIC, CALIFORNIA WILL INDEFINITELY SUSPEND KID ROCK FROM PERFORMING IN THE GOLDEN STATE. YOU’RE WELCOME! — GCN”.

• @Catturd2

• I can’t take it anymore. I hope Trump just fires Pam Bondi and gets somebody who understands the mission. We have a country to save. We have no more time for this weakness.. It’s just pitiful at this point. I’ve been playing nice and I’ve held my tongue for months. No more. Fire her. She’s not the one.

• @Villgecrazylady

• A reference for people not familiar with guns/ammo sizes, here’s .30-06 ammo next to: .556 (think AR-15). .357 (revolver). .45 (semiautomatic pistol). 9mm (semiautomatic pistol). Placed on a 6” notepad. (pic)

• @BasedMikeLee 

• How Democrats Are Trying To Enlist Republicans In The Dem Effort To Move America Toward Socialized Medicine. (thread)

• @EssexPR

• Making everyone have digital ID to combat illegal immigration, is a lie that this Government thinks that you’re stupid enough to believe… It will hand them power over your money, your health, your travel & your rights. Educate friends & family, it’s bad. (video)

• @ssongpinganq

• Digital ID forced these Chinese people to line up in the snowstorm to take PCR test. China announced that those who refused to take Covid test would get blacklisted by social credit system. That means you would lose access to welfare, benefits, public services and even pensions. (video)

• @Liz_Churchill10

• Bill Gates gave Regime Media over $319M to control the narrative. Bill Gates owns the U.N. by donating $1.27B to Agenda 2030. Bill Gates is a member of the World Economic Forum. Bill Gates owns the W.H.O. alongside with the CCP. Bill Gates is a Menace to Society. (video)

• @toobaffled

• Evil personified. As soon as Digital ID is implemented, it will only be a matter of time before a Mandatory Vaccination Passport is tied to it, meaning take the vaccines or get locked out of Society. Computer will say no because you didn’t get that mpox Booster. (pic)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 +3.75 basis points(new series).
• China Sovereign CDS 35.75 +2.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.24% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.0 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.14% +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.8 +.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.
• S&P 500 futures -.16%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.