Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.11% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.93% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.27 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.3 -5.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.1 -6.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.4 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) -.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.80 -.48:  Growth Rate +11.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 22.8 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 489.25 +.29: Growth Rate +19.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.65 +11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 unch.
• US Yield Curve 52.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.5% -1.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 77.9% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.4%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -93 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +93 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my financial/tech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.0%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.3% 2) Social Media -1.8% 3) AI/Innovation -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SKYT, OPCH, KC, NUS, SERV, ORCL, RMBS, VRT, KOD, ORKA, HBM, BIDU and SYM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UAMY 2) ETNB 3) PLUG 4) SYM 5) BB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FLY 2) ASST 3) OPEN 4) FLYE 5) MOD

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) XLF 3) SOXX 4) XRT 5) XLB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.6% 2) Electrification +2.5% 3) Energy +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BETR, CXT, BKKT, PDFS, ASTS, LB, HOND, PSKY, SSYS, ETON, MNMD, PL, CDRE, HAL, IE, GRAL, HROW, PL, ACMR, PCOR, RGR, USAR, INR, NOG, IMNM, WTTR, ONTO, LBRT, RCAT, YPF, PARR, SPIR, RGTI, RKLB, AESI, CRNX, LBRT, QFIN, TTMI, PBR, BMA, FRO, UTHR, BKSY, VIST, BBAR, JOBY, RYAAY, HMY, PONY, SRAD, BMA, SPPP, TIC, TSM, BCH, CRMD, HNGE and SNDK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UTHR 2) HAL 3) FIVN 4) BKR 5) CSX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BETR 2) HAL 3) ALVO 4) ACMR 5) PCOR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KBWB 2) XLC 3) SHLD 4) IBB 5) ITA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CTAS)/1.19
• (THO)/1.28 

After the Close: 

• (FUL)/1.24
• (KBH)/1.50
• (SCS)/.36
• (SFIX)/-.10
• (WS)/.74 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Aug. is estimated to fall to 650K versus 652K in July.  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +690,250 barrels versus a -9,285,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -737,500 barrels versus a -2,347,000 barrel decline the prior week.  Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +59,750 barrels versus a +4,046,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -1.05% versus a -1.6% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Daly speaking, 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, BofA Healthcare Conference, Bernstein Healthcare Conference, B. Riley Space Symposium and the (RYTM) business update call could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.3 +.2
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 54.6% of Issues Advancing, 43.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .58 -49.1% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$27.6M
  
• 196 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 62.2% (+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 70.9 +3.4

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 83.6 -1.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.6 -.33%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 167.4 -1.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.42 -8.0%
  
• Vix 16.3 +1.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -2.4%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The International Monetary Fund has persuaded Ukraine’s government to significantly increase its projections of additional funding the country will need through the end of 2027 in the face of protracted Russia’s invasion, according to sources.
• France, the UK, Canada and Australia formally recognized Palestine as a state in advance of the Sept. 23 start of the annual meeting of world leaders at the United Nations. Here's what to know.
• Nvidia said it will invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI to support the building of new data centers and infrastructure to power AI workloads. Here's your Evening Briefing.
• Boeing and Uzbekistan Airways unveiled a deal for as many as 22 of the US planemaker’s 787 Dreamliner jets, the largest-ever order in the airline’s history, according to a statement.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge    

• Ex-CIA Chief Gives Warm Welcome To Founder Of Syrian Al-Qaeda In New York.
• Trump Calls On World Bank To Reconsider Oil And Gas Financing.
• Nearly 25,000 Missing Illegal Immigrant Children Have Been Found: Tom Homan.
• Walmart Remains Winner In Supermarket Price Wars In September.
• Antifa Designated As Domestic Terror Group As White House Declares War On Radical Leftist Groups.
• New UN Amb. Mike Waltz Comes Out Swinging: 'Will Defend Every Inch Of NATO Territory' Against Russia.
• PA Gov Shapiro Demands PJM Reform As Mid-Atlantic Democrats Face Power Bill Crisis.
• "A Profoundly Damaged Cohort": Understanding And Saving Gen Z To Save America.
• ABC is putting Jimmy Kimmel back on the air because terrorism works in America. That's it, the message is terrorism is the only valid political action. 
• Most shorted stocks are the most overbought since the covid bounce.
• Gold Surges To New Record Highs As Bitcoin Dips & Big-Tech Rips.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: When you're good to Nvidia, Nvidia's good to you.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to open higher, tracking Wall Street gains on tech stocks rally.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed after 3-day win streak for S&P 500: Live updates.
• Trump to meet top Democrats as their health care demands fuel government shutdown risk.
  

• @MarioNawful

• FAKE CHINESE AIR BAGS KILLING DRIVERS IN THE U.S. At least 5 people in the U.S. have recently died, with 2 more are injured, due to car crashes involving cheap, fake airbags made by a Chinese company called DTN Airbag. Instead of safely inflating, these knockoff parts explode like pipe bombs during impact: some filled with colored foam instead of actual safety materials.
• LEBANON: 3 AMERICAN CHILDREN KILLED IN ISRAELI STRIKE. 4 U.S. citizens, a father and his 3 children, were killed in an Israeli airstrike on the town of Bint Jbeil, according to Lebanese officials. The IDF confirmed it targeted a Hezbollah operative but admitted several uninvolved civilians were killed. The children’s mother is reportedly in critical condition.
• ISRAELI FIRST: BRAIN SURGERY UNDER HYPNOSIS. At Galilee Medical Center, a 71-year-old Parkinson’s patient just had electrodes drilled into his skull while hypnotized - no anesthesia. Psychologist Dr. Udi Bonshtein guided the man to a beach in Thailand, complete with palm trees and ocean waves. While neurosurgeons performed 5 hours of deep brain stimulation, he stayed calm, awake, and pain-free.

• @P_McCulloughMD

• BREAKING: White House Announces Tylenol–Autism Link, Opens Door to Vaccines. The pathway to developmental regression begins with vaccines, not acetaminophen. Tylenol used for fever control for sixty years. Confounding by indication likely behind the association. A leading cause of Tylenol use during pregnancy is maternal vaccination that started about 25 years ago. Systemic inflammation and the reason why Tylenol is indicated (eg post combination vaccination) is the real driver of encephalitis, and the post-encephalitic state of autism.

• @newstart_2024

• Let's be blunt. The actions of elites like Bill Gates finally make sense when you consider they might not believe in climate catastrophe at all. They see it as the ultimate tool for control. Gates' answer to the 1%'s colossal pollution isn't to stop polluting. It's to create a paid permission structure. He spends $9 million a year for a "get out of jail free" card, so his private jets keep flying. This reveals the true game: For you, "climate action" means restrictions: carbon taxes on your food, tracking your mileage, limiting your travel, and shaming your lifestyle. It means less sovereignty, less freedom, and more dependence. For them, it means a new market. It means investing in the "solutions" you will be mandated to buy—the patented technologies, the carbon credits, the surveillance systems to monitor your compliance. (video)
• Of all the institutions to manage a public health crisis, why was the CIA running the show? In October 2019, the NSA now believes COVID-19 was already circulating. A month later, Bill Gates & Avril Haines—then Deputy Director of the CIA—co-hosted a pandemic simulation called Event 201. Haines, who hid the Abu Ghraib torture tapes, is now the Director of National Intelligence. The top spy in America was leading a public health forum. Attending were Big Pharma reps, Big Tech executives, and George Gao, head of the Chinese CDC. The longest session detailed how to use the pandemic to: - Silence dissent on social media - Specifically suppress the lab-leak theory - Implement totalitarian controls & dismantle civil liberties.
• Of course Bill Gates was involved. Published 2023. The Gates Foundation, GMO Ticks, and a Mysterious Meat Allergy – A Story of Billions, Bugs, and Beef. The number of Americans with Alpha-Gal Syndrome (AGS), a life-changing red meat allergy caused by tick bites, surged by 41.3% in 2021. Why is this significant? Let's connect the dots.

• @Holden_Culotta

• “Tylenol is not what’s driving the autism epidemic. Vaccines are driving this epidemic.” Mary Holland just warned that Trump and RFK Jr.’s announcement today may be a “sideshow.” “Tylenol is toxic to the liver, and babies can’t metabolize it.” “But vaccines are what needs to be focused on.” “Vaccines have aluminum, they have mercury, they have polysorbate 80, they have all kinds of things, formaldehyde, that they cannot metabolize, they cannot detox.” “I don’t know that that’s the focus of what’s gonna happen today, but this is not over.” “If this is a sideshow, we’re not gonna let this go.” (video)
  

• @JackPosobiec

• Understand what just happened. Jimmy Kimmel wasn’t taken off the air out of respect for Charlie. Jimmy Kimmel was taken off the air to give the entire media and the left distraction from the Charlie Kirk story. They tried to make Jimmy a victim, and blame it all on Trump.

• @MJTruthUltra

• Wow!!!! President Trump says the Amish People DO NOT take any vaccines and have virtually no Autism because they don’t take any vaccines. Trump says RFK Jr has to be very careful with what he says, but he WILL NOT. “I’m not so careful with what I say… the Amish has no autism. (video)

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: Charlie Kirk’s memorial had 20 MILLION LIVE viewers on streaming and cable TV, per NYP. TPUSA’s partners have tracked a total of 100 MILLION viewers across internet platforms. The left is in some REAL trouble. God Bless America.
• PRESIDENT TRUMP TO MOTHERS: DO NOT let them pump your child full of vaccines. “Don't let them pump your baby up with the largest pile of stuff you've ever seen… going into the delicate little body of a baby.” “Break them up into 4 visits instead of 1.” (video)

• @MDBreathe

• This is the most important exchange from the ACIP meeting. FDA admits to
  @KMilhoanMDPhD it has not performed independent inspection of mRNA shots for DNA contamination, instead relying on Pfizer and Moderna’s data. Multiple independent studies have shown excess levels of DNA contamination in these products, and @US_FDA is aware but not taking action. (video)

• @DrBenTapper1

• Interesting timeline: Sept 2019 Bill Gates invests $55 million in BioNTech. A few months later COVID appears. BioNTech becomes a key player behind Pfizer’s mRNA shot. A few years later that investment is reportedly worth more than $550 million. Strange that this isn’t common knowledge.

• @DiedSuddenly_

• Aaron Siri: "Look, if vaccines are so safe, why are they the only consumer product where you cannot sue the manufacturer for injuries to claim it was made safe there? It's been over 30 years, they're telling you hep B safe, Hib safe, these are safe. You still need immunity?" (video)

• @thecjpearson

• Hakeem Jeffries just said that if Democrats regain power, they will use the government to go after anybody "doing the bidding of the Trump administration." In case you needed any more motivation to make sure these people never win an election again. (video)

• @realMalouf

• ITALY: Milan right now looks like a literal war zone. A coalition of far-left activists and Muslim migrant gangs is currently rioting and destroying the city because Italy refuses to recognize a Palestinian state. Total chaos. (video)

• @I_Am_JohnCullen

• Let's compare the police response at Utah Valley University, after Charlie Kirk was shot.. to the police response to a disturbance at a mall in Florida. (video)

• @NicHulscher

• Our Pets Are Actively Being Used as Self-Amplifying mRNA Vectors. Merck’s Nobivac NXT was silently approved by the USDA last year — with NO real safety data. These shots likely shed samRNA and toxic antigens onto human owners across the country — without consent. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 35.0 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.99 +.12%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.53 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 84.8 +.05%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.15% +2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.03%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.