Saturday, September 27, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (NVDA), (CRWV) and (UTI).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @WSJ
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawfal
  • BILL MAHER: “THEY’RE SYSTEMATICALLY KILLING CHRISTIANS IN NIGERIA”. "Nigeria, the fact that this issue has not gotten on people's radar is amazing. If you don't know what's going on, your media sources suck. They are systematically killing Christians — over 100,000 since 2009, 18,000 churches burned by Boko Haram. This is more of a genocide attempt than Gaza. Where are the kids protesting this?" (video)
  • INTERVIEW – MIKE BENZ: “100,000 LEAKED EMAILS TIE ISRAELI PM TO EPSTEIN”. Mike Benz reveals a massive leak from former Israeli PM Ehud Barak’s private account, with hundreds of emails directly linked to Jeffrey Epstein.
    @MikeBenzCyber: “What just leaked online were about 100,000 emails from Ehud Barak’s private account. Hundreds of them were to, from, and about Jeffrey Epstein. (video)
  • @FoxNews 
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @newstart_2024
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @Trillion0x
  • @wideawake_media
  • @disclosetv
  • @mtgreene
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @NatalieGWinters
  • @SongPingAnq
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • @EssexPR
  • @1MikeFairclough
  • Listen carefully to the final statement in this chilling video, "Once the Digital ID is in place, it's game over for humanity". The government psyops haven't really kicked in yet. So before they program the public with ludicrous excuses for Digital ID (and before they brand you far-right for opposing it) speak up now.
  • @catsscareme2021
  • @tarapalmeri
  • @RealLindellTV
  • @TonySeruga
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Friday, September 26, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,643.9 -.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 46,279.0 unch.
  • NASDAQ 22,474.2 -.7%
  • Russell 2000 2,432.8 -.8%
  • NYSE FANG+ 16,142.8 -2.2%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 245.0 -1.1%
  • Wilshire 5000 65,733.1 -.5%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,677.4 -1.0%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,999.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 866.2 -1.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 280.3 -1.0%
  • NYSE Technology 7,111.4 +.1%
  • Transports 15,752.0 +.8%
  • Utilities 1,110.7 +1.8%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 98.4 -.6%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 52.58 -.5%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 241.09 +.09%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 127.40 +.59%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 577,125 -.69%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.0 +10.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 9 -1,491
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.3 -10.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 98,709 +20.6%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,962,620 +.28%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -1.4%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.08 +28.5%
  • ISE Sentiment 165.0 -2.0
  • NYSE Arms 1.01 -5.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 85.7 +.9%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 -9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.57 +6.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.6 +2.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .67 +7.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.4 -1.3%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.5 -1.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.6 -2.8%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 24,032.9 -.04%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  86.2 +1.4
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.315 Trillion +.43%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$10.882 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 41.7 unch.
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 303.35 +.7%
  • Crude Oil 65.70/bbl. +4.5%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 203.60 +3.2%
  • Natural Gas 2.84 -2.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
  • Heating Oil 242.8 +5.1% 
  • Newcastle Coal 106.5 (1,000/metric ton) +5.6%
  • Gold 3,779.1 +2.5%
  • Silver 46.5 +7.9%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 478.9 +1.3%
  • Copper 478.0 +2.9%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 340.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne -2.8%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,200.0 USD/metric tonne unch.
  • CME Lumber  592.0 +4.1%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,360.6 -.45%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% +.6 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.3 -2.1 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.05 -11.0%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 168.1 -12.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 -16.2%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $206.0 Billion($1,279.50 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(14 of 500 reporting) +15.8% +16.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.30 +.27:  Growth Rate +12.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.5 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.5% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 489.71 +1.75: Growth Rate +20.5% +1.2 percentage points, P/E 32.8 -.8
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.5 +13.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.3 -12.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.2 -1.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 87.7%(-4.2 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.75-4.0%, 12.3%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.25-4.5% on 10/29
  • US Dollar Index 98.18 +.6%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,841.09 -.39%
  • Bitcoin/USD 109,996.0 -4.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 197.67 +.69%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 unch.
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 54.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.19% +5.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.561 Trillion unch.
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.907 Billion +27.0%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.8 +3.8%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 204.3 +8.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 84.0 +5.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.56 +13.5%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.0 +13.8%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 138.3 +9.2%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.6+6.8%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.8 +25.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.63 -.22%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 125.6 -1.0%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.7% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% -13.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.79 +9.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -22.0 basis points -8.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.75 +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 -1.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.9 +12.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 198.0 +1.6
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 225.0 +2.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 60.37 +13.0%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 132.5 +13.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 148.4 +5.3%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 125.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 599.0 +11.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .50 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.8% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,377.5B -.4%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 237,500 -1.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.63 -.34%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.33% -8.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 388,300 +.57%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.2% -30.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +6.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $191.0M +20.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.15/gallon -.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,266.0 +2.9%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,760.9/40 ft Box -8.0%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,087.4 -2.9%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 57.5 -4.2%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 73.8 +7.9%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 282,068 -.3%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,739,557 +28.0% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 49.0% -4.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value unch.
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.7%
Leading Sectors
  • Education +6.2%
  • Oil Service +5.1%
  • Energy +5.0%
  • Alt Energy +3.1%
  • Gold & Silver +2.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Digital Health -2.7%
  • Airlines -3.0%
  • Social Media -3.0%
  • Disk Drives -3.0%
  • AI/Innovation -3.9%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (49)
  • CRNX, SKYT, PPTA, CCRN, PACS, SRRK, MLTX, ARCT, LTBR, HI, CMCL, ATI, MAC, CENX, GFS, MAZE, CDTX, AG, MUX, CLPT, INTC, SYRE, DRD, MBC, BCAX, HMY, AIR, KYMR, PCAR, PTGX, CIEN, BIP, IAG, INVX, IE, HROW, DPZ, GHRS, IDR, BA, XIFR, PAAS, SKE, HXL, IMVT, F, FA, ACN, TSLA and QURE
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)
  • LI, SMLR, TIPT, EPSM, BBNX, KC and CNXC
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -144 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CCL)/1.32 
After the Close: 
  • (JEF)/.80
  • (PRGS)/1.30
  • (MTN)/-4.72 
Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.4% decline in July. 

10:30 am EST

  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Evercore ISI Autonomous/ADAS & AI Forum, (ARCB) investor day, (FDX) annual meeting and the Jefferies Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge    
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • TRUMP: WE’LL MOVE WORLD CUP GAMES IF BLUE CITIES AREN’T SAFE "If I think it's not safe, we're gonna move it out of that city. If any city we think is gonna be even a little bit dangerous for the World Cup or for the Olympics, for the World Cup in particular, since they're playing in so many cities, we'll move it around."
  • @RyanMattaMedia
  • @ImMeme0
  • @newstart_2024 
  • EricLDaugh
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @ScottPresler
  • @songpinganq
  • @HealthRanger
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @AFPost
  • @NicHulscher
  • @wideawake_media
  • @realstewpeters 
  • @C_3C_3
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.5 +1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.93 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.28 -.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.3 -.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.18% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 +.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.35%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.