Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.7 +6.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .26 +15.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 83.2 -.4% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.25%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.73 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.75 -1.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.1 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 202.0 +39.0

• Total Put/Call .87 +10.1%

• NYSE Arms .96 -18.0%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$113.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.0 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.0 -.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 210.0 -11.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -1.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 118.5 -1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 78.0 -3.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.9 +.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 139.4 -.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 75.6 -.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.57 +.24%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 basis points +.25 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -41.25 basis points -1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.55 +.75 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 116.0 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 588.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 50.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 +.15%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.10% -5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.93% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.3 euros/megawatt-hour -.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.3 -4.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.8 +1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.1 +3.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +12.4% -3.1 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.80 +.12:  Growth Rate +12.3% unch., P/E 22.8 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.56 +.32: Growth Rate +17.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.8 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 -12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.5 -.1
• US Yield Curve 56.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -10.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 86.7% (+9.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 52.2%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +400 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +270 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -2.4% 2) I-Banking -1.7% 3) Airlines -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ACLS, KROS, TSLX, DOCU, ZG, KVYO, DKNG, Z, MELI, KNTK, OCUL, QURE, AIR, FLY, HUBS, CTVA, RDDT, WIX, WOLF and MFH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XP 2) SCHD 3) CLOV 4) WOLF 5) SYM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RDDT 2) ZG 3) TAYD 4) NFLX 5) CALM

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) URNM 2) IGV 3) IBB 4) PTF 5) PRN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Pharma +5.8% 2) Alt Energy +4.5% 3) Disk Drives +4.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MENS, AES, QS, WYFI, FLNC, OLMA, ASTS, CSIQ, SOC, ARCT, AZN, SNDK, LLY, BCAX, VECO, CIVI, RGEN, MU, REGN, AVAV, BIIB, MRK, STX, AVTR, BMY, PFE, WDC, MRNA, LW, NTLA, SPRY, NVO, A, AMGN, INTC, AYI, ANAB, PL, VRT, ENVX, SUPX, CRK, SMCI, IQV, MT, ARM, ETSY, TECH, DHR, NKE, FORM, GILT, ARQT, GSK, ABBV, XIFR, CWEN, DIN, RUN, GEO, CAG, ARGX, CGAU, CPRX, MSGE, BETR, ASO, LENZ, ROIV, TWST, MSTR, GSAT, GLXY, UNFI, HUT, MNMD, DELL, EOSE, HHH, VIPS, TSLA, EXE, GMAB, SA, ROKU, SEI, RKT, BNTX, SGHC, BEP and TSM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TSLY 2) TMO 3) ABTC 4) PAYO 5) AES

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LAC 2) AES 3) ASTS 4) ARLP 5) NKE

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) SMH 3) XLV 4) XLC 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANGO)/-.12

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Sept. 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225K versus 218K the prior week. (likely delayed by US govt. shutdown)
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1931K versus 1926K prior. 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a -1.3% decline in July.
• Factory Orders Tx Transports for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in July.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Logan speaking, the Fed's weekly balance sheet report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +12.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 +2.5
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 52.5% of Issues Advancing, 45.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .87 -28.7% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$65.8M
  
• 129 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 59.1% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.1 +4.7

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.3 +.01%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 331.25 +1.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.7 -.2%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.7 -.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 52.0 (NEUTRAL) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.4 -21.6%
  
• Vix 16.1 -.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .75 -10.6%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he expects President Trump to sign more trade deals with countries in Southeast Asia during a trip later this year.
  Confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers improved for a second straight quarter, supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates as early as this month.
• South Korea’s exports declined as the impact of sweeping US tariffs outweighed the benefit of more working days in the month.
• Republican lawmakers says that China won’t begin purchasing US agriculture products anytime soon after a closed-door briefing from US Ambassador to China David Perdue. 
• The US State Department has approved the sale for $705 million of HIMARS mobile rocket systems and related equipment to ally Australia to help bolster its defenses in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific.
• Morgan Stanley’s stress capital buffer requirement has been lowered to 4.3%, down from an initial 5.1%, the Fed said. 
• The US Transportation Department plans to insulate air traffic control services and training for new employees from a government shutdown, keeping vital aviation functions running. 
• Nike’s latest quarterly sales surpassed Wall Street’s expectations on strength in North America and its running business
  .
• Bond traders are pumping millions of dollars into options wagers that 10-year Treasuries are on the cusp of a rally that will drive yields to five-month lows. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.   
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge    

• EIA Data Shows Record US Oil Output After Major Upward Revision.
• Trump Gives Hamas 'Three Or Four Days' To Agree To Gaza Plan Or 'Pay In Hell'.
• Government Set To Shut Down At Midnight After Senate Fails To Pass Funding Bills
  .
• The Vanishing American Dream: Why Young Adults Can't Afford Homes, Families, Or Stability
  .
• In 2019, every Democrat presidential candidate rose their hand in support for healthcare for illegal aliens. Today, Democrats are willing to shut down the government over free healthcare for illegals. Democrats have always put illegals before Americans. -@CollinsforTX (video)
   
• Obama Library Funds Are Secretly Flowing To Dark Money Networks
  .
• Scoop: The White House just withdrew Brian Quintenz’s nomination to be a board member and chair of the CFTC. CFTC has a key role in regulating cryptocurrency. Winklevoss twins pressed Trump to ditch him this summer. -@meredithLLee.
• Storm Clouds Gather: As Russia Warns Of False Flag In EU, Politico Talks "Franz Ferdinand Moment".
• Jimmy Kimmel's Audience Numbers Implode After Brief Spike.
• NVDA takes out resistance levels, breaking above the consolidation that has been in place since mid July. Weak hands have been shaken out, so we could be seeing a short term vacuum kick in...  
   
• Tough poll for Democrats on a shutdown
  . 
• Oil demand weakness? US oil demand was at 20.984mbpd in July, up 391kbpd or 1.9% y/y, record demand for the month of July, EIA STEO forecast had demand at 20.442mbpd
  . 
• Tech Jumps, Trannies Dump As Rate-Cuts Spark Gold's Best Month In 14 Years
  . 

• @CNBC

• Asia markets set to track Wall Street gains ahead of a potential U.S. government shutdown.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Paychex CEO says small business owners are 'resilient in this economy'.
• Lithium Americas stock pops 35% as government takes a stake to boost Nevada project.
• Stock futures are lower as government shutdown looms: Live updates.
• Warren Buffett is reportedly eyeing Berkshire Hathaway's biggest deal in three years.  

• @newstart_2024 

• The Unvarnished Truth on Geoengineering, from a US Air Force Insider. One of the most articulate and damning explanations of active geoengineering programs comes from Kristen Meghan, a 9-year US Air Force veteran and Bio-Environmental Engineer. Her story is not conspiracy; it's a firsthand account of a shattered oath and a mission to expose the truth. Here's the summary: (video)
• Read this carefully. Pfizer's CEO reframes a global pandemic that killed millions as a "rehearsal." A successful test run for mass mobilization. The "impossible" he refers to wasn't just scientific—it was logistical, regulatory, and societal. Now, with the playbook perfected, he declares they are "after cancer." This is the corporatization of human suffering. Your fear is the product. Your body is the market. (video)

• EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: This woman is going viral on TikTok for being outraged that Schumer is trying to shut down the government in exchange for "$1.4 billion of free motherf---ing MONEY to the illegal immigrants for healthcare!" (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla:- “We now have an electronic tracking pill”. “We know when people have taken the Pharmaceutical Pill because it sends a signal”. Now imagine your Big Pharma sponsored Government State Mandated Medication that automatically updates to your Digital ID once you’ve taken it. Refuse to take the pill & ‘they’ know and you will be barred from doing what they don’t want you to do. (video)
• Bill Gates wants to Digitally Track Women to ensure they are attending Doctors appointments to get all their Vaccines. (video)

• @NicHulscher

• BREAKING: Pfizer Strikes $70 Billion Deal with U.S. to Expand Its Disastrous mRNA Empire, Lower Drug Prices. A “landmark agreement” gives Pfizer cover to expand its failed mRNA platform — sweeping a trail of death and destruction under the rug. Pfizer bragged: “With this agreement in place, Pfizer can fully focus on delivering the next generation of cures… in areas like oncology, obesity, vaccines, and inflammation and immunology.” After catastrophic injuries, deaths, and disabilities linked to its COVID products, Pfizer isn’t punished — it’s rewarded with protection and growth. (video)

• @matt_vanswol

• #BREAKING: Father of 22-year-old Logan Federico is screaming at Democrats in Congress after his daughter was dragged from bed, forced on her knees, and executed......by a man arrested 39 TIMES with 25 FELONIES!!! Everyone who let this demon walk freely, should be in prison. (video)

• @HighWireTalk

• RFK Jr. Destroys the ‘Saved Millions of Lives’ vaccine Dogma. RFK Jr. just dismantled the dogma that vaccines alone ended infectious disease and “saved millions of lives.” Data shows mortality plummeted before vaccines, thanks to nutrition, sanitation & infrastructure. Science, not slogans. I NEVER thought I’d see the day where the Secretary of HHS actually told this truth. Share this clip with all of your friends. My gosh. (video)

• @WarriorSpeech28

• Digital ID comes first because it builds the cage. Digital currency comes after because it locks the door. Without Digital ID, they can’t track you. Without CBDC, they can’t control you. Together, it’s checkmate. This is why they always roll out ID before money, you don’t give prisoners the keys before the bars are up.

• @TheChiefNerd

• Jason Whitlock Says the Bad Bunny Halftime Show is the NFL “Trolling Donald Trump & MAGA”. “This is the left-wing response to [Charlie Kirk]. They're going to put on a demonic cross-dressing, gangster Puerto Rican rapper … It's a pissing match with Donald Trump and MAGA.” (video)

• @TheIntelSCIF

• INTELLIGENCE ties to Utah Valley University and the Charlie Kirk assassination. Why was the State Farm Stadium center for Charlie's memorial service rented out by TPUSA in May of 2025, when no other events were planned or on their schedule? Why was their military/intelligence related aircraft flying in the proximity during the Charlie Kirk assassination. We will get into the drones in an upcoming video. Why are there CIA agents embedded at the Utah Valley University campus and why were their accounts scrubbed after this was made public? Last but not least, when Charlie invited Tucker to speak, Tucker told Charlie he would not bring up other countries such as Israel so he doesn't upset Charlie's donors. Charlie told him to specifically NOT HOLD BACK and to speak the truth about EVERYTHING and not to worry about his donors, so Tucker did. This is so much deeper than you are being led to believe. Pay attention.
• Candace Owens states that Charlie Kirk's assassination looks like a MILITARY OPERATION. - Numerous individuals that have given information or people involved/witnesses all have military backgrounds or are somehow connected. (video)

• @MDBreathe

• What a f*cking slap in the face to all of the people injured and killed by Pfizer. Really heartless and disrespectful @POTUS. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• You cant convince me this isn’t a National Security threat. Dearborn Michigan is what Charlie Kirk warned about when he talked of Islam growing. It’ll be freedom of religion right up to the point where they decide their religion supersedes the Constitution and all other religions. (video)
• Ian Carroll just put out an episode called “Something isn’t adding up — I have questions” about the Charlie Kirk assassination. Ian Carroll’s investigation CONFIRMS Utah Valley University DID DELETE the former CIA professor’s profile along with 6 more university staff tied to intelligence and security specialties. ‌ Again: 

• @EmeraldRobinson

• Remember that time @DAGToddBlanche got caught secretly having lunch with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins last year? Looks like Trump’s advisors picked the wrong guy. Again.

• @elonmusk

• We are building Grokipedia @xAI. Will be a massive improvement over Wikipedia. Frankly, it is a necessary step towards the xAI goal of understanding the Universe.

• @wideawake_media

• Do you honestly think it's just a "coincidence" that digital ID is being rolled out in lockstep in country after country, at the exact same time? It's not a coincidence—it's a centrally coordinated supranational agenda being rolled out by compromised national leaders at the behest of globalist technocrats you never voted for.

• @VigilantFox

• REPORT: Operation Lockstep is in full swing and advancing fast. One by one, nations are adopting Digital ID, and Switzerland is the latest to fall in line—pitched as “voluntary” today, destined to be mandatory tomorrow. Look at Australia. Lawmakers swore their Digital ID bill was optional when it passed in December 2024. Now, just months later, citizens will need age checks to perform a basic Google search. First it’s convenience, then it’s control. (video)
• REPORT: Canada has given citizens one year to surrender their firearms, calling it a “voluntary” buyback. But the reality is clear—by October 2026, anyone who refuses will face criminal charges. (video)

• @amuse

• CHINA: The Democrats are set to raise the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) flag over Philadelphia’s City Hall tomorrow in a display of support for China’s regime and values. The Five-Star Red Flag represents a totalitarian government guilty of persecuting Christians, Uyghurs, and other faith groups, carrying out genocide, and subsidizing the chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl that has devastated millions of American lives. Under Xi Jinping, communist China has become the antithesis of everything Philadelphia once stood for, and today the CCP is widely recognized as the greatest national security threat facing the United States in the 21st century.

• @In2ThinAir

• STILL not a SINGLE word from any of these men who know full well what's being said about them and what they were CAUGHT on video doing before and AFTER Charlie Kirks "Assassination"... (video)

• @LibertyLockPod

• NEW: European Union announces all Americans visiting nearly 30 countries, almost all in the EU, will be required to surrender finger prints, biometric data and your photograph which will be stored by their government. They are now mandating Americans surrender Digital ID data. Americans. You have an opportunity here to demolish tyranny thousands of miles away. Cancel all travel plans to Europe. Refuse to do business with any country that requires digital ID. Break them in half. They cannot survive with zero American tourism. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 38.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.38 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.6 -.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.15% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.8 +1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.37%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.40%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.