Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Oct. is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 55.1 in Sept.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Oct. is estimated at 4.7% versus 4.7% in Sept. 

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Budget Balance for Sept. is estimated at $60.0B versus -$344.8B in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• (BN) 3-for-2
• (BNT) 3-for-2 

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking and the weekly Baker Hughes oil rig count could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.9 -.1
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 26.2% of Issues Advancing, 71.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .64 -53.3% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$86.2M
  
• 109 New 52-Week Highs, 43 New Lows
• 63.8% (-2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 -5.3

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 87.1 +1.8%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 341.75 +9.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.8 -.9%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 169.2 +.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 49.0 (NEUTRAL) -4.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.1 +.9%
  
• Vix 16.7 +2.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 +4.0%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• President Donald Trump said both Israel and Hamas had agreed to terms for the release of all hostages held by the Palestinian militant group in Gaza.
• Keir Starmer met with a key architect of India’s digital ID program, as the British prime minister sought guidance on implementing a similar system in the UK. 
• Strategists from Japan’s largest brokerages are raising their targets for the Nikkei 225 Stock Average on the view that the newly elected ruling party leader will unleash large-scale stimulus and push the blue-chip benchmark past its record high.
• China’s markets reopen on Thursday after the Golden Week break with investors weighing whether renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence can outweigh signs of soft consumer spending.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Says Hamas & Israel Agreed To 'First Phase' Of Peace Deal .
• US Stock Ownership Is High But Unequally Distributed.
• "We Found A Network Of NGOs, Not Just Soros": Trump Briefed On Left-Wing Machine That Sows Chaos.
• *CHINA TO TIGHTEN EXPORTS OF RARE EARTH AND RELATED TECH.
• Chinese-Mexican Syndicate's Supply Chain Exposed, Vancouver Emerges As Global Meth Hub.
• BOMBSHELL: Smoking Gun May Reveal Left-Wing Eco-Terrorism Behind Palisades Fire. We have uncovered what appears to be a Facebook page belonging to recently charged Palisades arsonist Jonathan Rinderknecht, exposing him as a radical climate alarmist, pro-vegan extremist, and Democrat activist. His timeline is filled with left-wing propaganda, including: - Sep 17, 2020: “Climate Change Will Force a New American Migration” with images of California wildfires. - Sep 4, 2020: Fundraised for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. - Aug 9, 2020: “Rising Seas Could Menace Millions Beyond Shorelines.”. - July 29, 2020: “The Great Climate Migration Has Begun”. It’s also being reported that Rinderknecht donated to Joe Biden through ActBlue on two separate occasions. -@bennyjohnson (pic)   
• He really is the avatar for that entire nepo baby champagne marxist movement. Lives in a $3 million mansion, drives a $100K car, just streams online every day, all day. Says he hates everything about the country that allows him the privilege to do this. Calls not having local satellite speed internet in a state run by Democrats, a microcosm of "Violence" in America. Then commits an ACTUAL act of violence on a dog by remotely shocking it. Then blames his mother, and says the dog has too much freedom and needs a structured routine. And doing so all while streaming "Free Palestine" protests. It's a perfect illustration. It can't be explained any simpler than this. -@redsteeze (video) 
• Struggling Central Valley Residents Line Up For Groceries Amid California's Cost-of-Living Crisis
  . 
• VIRGINIA POLL: Attorney General (Commissioned by Republican AG association). Jason Miyares: 45.8%. Jay Jones: 43.7%. Previous poll from Sep. Jones 46.4-42.5%. —— Net Favs. Miyares: +6.0%. Jones: -16.5%. -@IAPolls2022. It’s unbelievable that this violent radical has not stepped down.
• Gut Changes Persist Years After Stopping Certain Medications.
• A Surprise Dollar Rally Is Already Underway.
• 78% Of Americans Favor Deportation Of Criminal Illegal Immigrants; New Poll Finds.
• This time is different? - The tech rally is profit driven. (graph)    
• Everything's Up Today... Except The Yen; Goldman Sees A Generation Of 'Momo Junkies'. 

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open higher, tracking Wall Street gains as tech rally continues.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• S&P 500 futures are little changed after benchmark rises to all-time high: Live updates.

• @WSJ 

• Breaking: Trump said Israel and Hamas signed off on the first phase of a peace plan to end the war in Gaza, with all hostages to be released soon. 
• President Trump’s and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s family members are positioned to benefit from efforts to overhaul drug sales.
• A host of alternative jobs data from Wall Street are pointing in the same direction: The U.S. labor market is losing steam.  
• The Trump administration said it isn’t planning to impose tariffs on generic drugs from foreign countries, which make up most of medications dispensed in the U.S. 
• Federal Reserve officials were divided over how much farther they should lower interest rates when they approved their first reduction of the year last month.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 39.75 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.36 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.7 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.11% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.08%
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on AI-Induced Profit Margin Expansion Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +11.1% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.58 +.21:  Growth Rate +12.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.9 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 477.95 +.40: Growth Rate +17.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.2 +.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.26 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.1 -.2
• US Yield Curve 54.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.7% +1.5 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 77.6% (-4.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.9%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +450 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech/financial/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +3.6% 2) Networking +3.3% 3) Semis +2.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NTLA, DGNX, GSRT, STOK ZBIO, APGE, CRML, FIG, RGNX, MRX, CIFR, WOLF, CENX, IDR, CDE, MESO, AMD, CLPT, CFLT, AG, WRD, SEM, TEM, CRSP, ASTS, SEI, BNC, ANET, FLY, CLF, IE, ADUR, EOSE, SNDK, CGON, HBM, CRWV, TWST, SNDR, IMTX, OCUL, BLD, SKE, CCCX, MNMD, BVN, SYRE, DNA, ZS, MNMD, HUT, MT, KNX, CLSK, LSTR, IMXI, ORKA, JMIA, PSTG, SNOW, TYL, SPIR, CVLT, SANM, SW, FCX, CNR, BTQ, COHU, CRDO, AMRK, SOUN, GSAT, RKLB, CNR, MU, EYPT, BTQ, SMCI, IMNM, ARQT, SCCO, IRON, DRD, LUNR, MIR, WERN, RVMD, PATH, HPE, INGM, CEG, TAC, HON, FLUT, QURE, AA, IOT, CAT, FORD, UEC, GILT, RPD, NBIS and TSM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) COTY 2) FI 3) NVDY 4) POET 5) FE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FIG 2) MRX 3) DELL 4) SEM 5) ASTS

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) SMH 3) KRE 4) VHT 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DAL)/1.52
• (HELE)/.53
• (NEOG)/-.07
• (PEP)/2.26 

After the Close: 

• (APOG)/.84
• (APLD)/-.13
• (LEVI)/.31 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.4% gain in July.
• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 55.1 in Sept.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Oct. is estimated at 4.7% versus 4.7% in Sept. 

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Budget Balance for Sept. is estimated at $55.0B versus -$344.8B. 

Upcoming Splits

• (BN) 3-for-2
• (BNT) 3-for-2 

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, 30Y T-Bond auction, WASDE report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, (RGLD) shareholders meeting and the (PAYX) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST