Saturday, October 18, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (CL) and (PWR).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @CNBC 
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @TheIntel SCIF
  • @BasedMikeLee
  • @0HOUR1_
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @SpeakerJohnson
  • @GenFlynn
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @VigilantFox
  • @stocktalkweekly
  • @Matt_Vanswol
  • @ChanelRion
  • @NiohBerg
  • @RWMaloneMD
  • “Women who use Depo-Provera face a higher risk of developing a slow-growing brain tumor, according to a new study that comes as the contraceptive’s maker, Pfizer, faces hundreds of lawsuits claiming that it was aware of the potential risks. For the new study, researchers examined over 61 million female patient records, finding that women who used DMPA had a twofold higher risk of getting diagnosed with meningioma compared to women not on hormonal birth control. How much more will we have to tolerate from Pfizer? (video)
  • @ScottJenningsKY
  • @RepMTG
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Friday, October 17, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,665.5 +1.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 46,274.2 +1.7%
  • NASDAQ 22,695.9 -1.5%
  • Russell 2000 2,412.67 +2.4%
  • NYSE FANG+ 16,121.5 +1.6%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 275.9 +4.7%
  • Wilshire 5000 65,942.6 -1.1%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,702.6 +1.8%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,995.45 +1.7%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 886.1 +2.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 245.91 -1.0%
  • NYSE Technology 7,334.2 +3.7%
  • Transports 15,710.6 +4.2%
  • Utilities 1,153.0 +1.2%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 98.1 +.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 54.3 +5.1%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 242.32 -.11%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 126.35 +.25%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 581,023 +.06%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 +59.3%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 533 -212
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.4 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 102,958 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,936,690 n/a
  • Total Put/Call .86 -10.4%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.12 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment 173.0 -6.0
  • NYSE Arms .90 +19.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 76.1 -6.5%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .21 -46.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.27 -4.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.4 +4.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .82 -74.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 18.3 -3.5%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.62 -1.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.86 +2.7%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 23,481.8 -2.9%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  84.9 +.3
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.367 Trillion -.24%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$3.666 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 33.7 -26.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 299.33 -2.7%
  • Crude Oil 57.6/bbl. -1.5%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 183.77 +1.2%
  • Natural Gas 3.00 -4.0%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -.3%
  • Heating Oil 218.1 -.9% 
  • Newcastle Coal 109.1 (1,000/metric ton) +2.1%
  • Gold 4,242.5 +4.6%
  • Silver 51.8 +2.3%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 495.5 +.9%
  • Copper 499.8 +2.6%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 350.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne -3.8%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,250.0 USD/metric tonne -.7%
  • CME Lumber  634.0 +3.9%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,330.4 +.6%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 327.5 USD/Short Ton -.8%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% +.1 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.2 +3.9 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.51 +2.5%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 413.8 +76.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.9 +93.5%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $214.0 Billion($1,329.19 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(58 of 500 reporting) +16.0% +6.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.94 +1.06:  Growth Rate +13.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 480.32 +2.32: Growth Rate +18.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 33.4 -1.0
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.8 -3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.0 +3.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.7 +4.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 99.0%(+.7 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.75-4.0%, 0.0%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.25-4.5% on 10/29
  • US Dollar Index 98.44 -.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,843.2 +.27%
  • Bitcoin/USD 116,670.5 -7.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 198.7 -.01%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.99 +.7%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 54.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.0% -5.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.549 Trillion +.08%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.082 Billion +8.2%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.95 -1.9%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 213.80 +2.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 80.0 -2.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.5 -3.0%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.62 +5.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 147.9 -6.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.4 +5.0%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.5 -5.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.54 +.47%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 125.4 -.3%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.6% -10.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 -2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -4.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -32.5 basis points -8.5 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -1.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 54.4 -2.6%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 210.0 +5.2
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 243.0 +45.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 62.5 -.6%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 135.1 -.2%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 154.2 -2.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 122.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 603.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .56 +2.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.8% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,311.4B -2.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 237,500 n/a
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% n/a
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.0 -2.4%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.39% -1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 317,200 -1.8%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.9% -20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +10.0% -6.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $102.5M -.11%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.05/gallon -.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,046.0 +5.7%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,650.9/40 ft Box +2.2%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 973.1 -4.1%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 55.0 +22.2%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 71.5 -5.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 273,900 -1.7%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,438,958 -17.3% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 49.0% -2.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +2.1%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Computer Hardware +5.1%
  • Semis +5.0%
  • Alt Energy +4.7%
  • Shipping +4.1%
  • Retail +3.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • Defense -1.5%
  • Electrification -1.6%
  • Regional Banks -2.4%
  • Computer Services -3.8%
  • Insurance -4.5%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)
  • LBRT, IRON, PRAX, RVMD, AXP, BETR, KEP, APPF, GILD, CNS, HROW, EBC, HONE, PRM, ZGN, SKY, FUTU, GRND, TFC, HDB, COF, OTF, IBN and BTQ
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (28)
  • NAMS, STT, OXLC, DB, IONQ, GBCI, SRRK, USAR, NN, CCJ, SAND, RGLD, ORCL, UUUU, AIRO, SKYT, NBIS, UEC, ASPI, AUGO, PAAS, SKE, PGNY, IDR, DRD, PPTA, UAMY and HIMS
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Regional Bank Angst, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Financial/Medical Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.2%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.0 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.92% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.8 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.0 +4.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.7 +4.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(58 of 500 reporting) +16.0% -.3 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.94 +.38:  Growth Rate +13.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 480.82 +.55: Growth Rate +18.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .21 -24.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.27 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.9 +.2 point
  • US Yield Curve 54.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% +10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.2% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 92.2% (+4.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 52.6%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +670 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +71 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +20 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slight Lower: On losses in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CLF)/-.45 
After the Close: 
  • (CCK)/1.99
  • (RLI)/.71
  • (STLD)/2.64
  • (WRB)/1.11
  • (WTFC)/2.63
  • (ZION)/1.46 
Economic Releases 
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The European Society of Medical Oncology Congress could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST