Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, US/China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Alt Energy/Commodity Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 +.07%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.96 -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.89% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.03%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.7 euros/megawatt-hour -.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.8 +1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.4 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.0 +1.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(58 of 500 reporting) +16.0% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 296.36 +.44:  Growth Rate +13.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.7 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 481.57 +.75: Growth Rate +18.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 34.0 +.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .43 +22.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -14.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.5 -.4 point
• US Yield Curve 52.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.6% -1.6 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 96.1% (+2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 52.4%(-.3 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +640 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, added some biotech longs
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Telecom -.1% 2) Insurance unch. 3) Foods +.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IRON, OXLC, MNMD, PDI, SMMT, DCTH, PRAX, PTY, IBN, CRML, CYD, CCCX, BTQ, FORD, HOND, GMAB, GKOS, GOF, SSTK, BCAX, FWRD, EXEL and NVA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWJ 2) ARCT 3) ABAT 4) SMMT 5) CAN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EXEL 2) FWRD 3) DOW 4) APP 5) MUSA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLP 3) XLU 4) ARKW 5) XME

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +3.1% 2) Alt Energy +2.9% 3) Digital Health +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GSIT, CELC, BETR, KOD, CRMD, CLF, BEAM, GRAL, NVTS, REAL, TWST, PSNL, AEHR, SDGR, APLS, UAMY, NTLA, USAR, BHVN, TFIN, JOBY, TECX, TXG, AAOI, IMVT, SSYS, RSI, UUUU, KROS, SNDX, CLSK, SOC, NEO, IMTX, NKTR, PPTA, SNDK, BTDR, SMCI, CRK, VSH, NTRA, NUVL, POWL, ARCT, ACHR, MUX, CRDO, LBRT, ROCK, BLCO, AA, JEF, AAUC, XNCR, OCFC, AAPL, J, VCIC, NAMS, ZION, BABAB, COO, NFLX, UAL, VLY, STT, NEGG, ROIV, ONB, HOLX and MANU

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EW 2) RANI 3) SSYS 4) OWL 5) REPL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) USAR 2) REPL 3) CELC 4) CLF 5) RDDT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) GNR 3) GDX 4) XLK 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MMM)/2.07
• (BMI)/1.14
• (KO)/.78
• (DHR)/1.72
• (ELV)/4.93
• (GE)/1.46
• (GM)/2.29
• (HAL)/.50
• (LMT)/6.38
• (NDAQ)/.85
• (NOC)/6.44
• (PCAR)/1.16
• (PNR)/1.18
• (PM)/2.09
• (PHM)/2.89
• (DGX)/2.50
• (RTX)/1.41
• (VMI)/4.62 
• (ISRG)/1.99
• (GPC)/1.99
• (MLI)/1.99
• (WFRD)/1.17 

After the Close: 

• (COF)/4.38
• (CB)/6.17
• (MANH)/1.19
• (MAT)/1.06
• (NFLX)/6.96
• (PEGA)/.20
• (TXN)/1.49
• (WAL)/2.08 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST 

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report and the Maxim Growth Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.2 +1.2
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 75.8% of Issues Advancing, 22.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 +24.1% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$279.4M
  
• 60 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 62.9% (+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.3 +2.4

Polymarket:

• Will Congress pass a funding bill by Oct. 31st?  37.0% +14.0 percentage points
• US tariff rate on China on Nov. 12th? 25-40% 69.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% +1.0 percentage point

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.4 +5.1%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 351.5 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.6 +.7%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 169.9 +.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 31.0 (FEAR) +5.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.7 -41.0%
  
• Vix 18.6 -10.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 -7.8%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• The Gaza truce that Donald Trump hopes to parlay into broader Middle East peace is under fire, with Israel and Hamas accusing each other of violations.
• Japan Innovation Party lawmakers are set to meet to decide whether to form an alliance with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party that would likely lead to Sanae Takaichi becoming the country’s first woman prime minister. 
• China said it’s uncovered “irrefutable evidence” of US government cyber attacks on the country’s main agency responsible for timekeeping. 
• China's decision to curb access to rare earths has far-reaching implications for investors. 
• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to meet US President Donald Trump on Monday in Washington for talks that will include discussions over the supply chain of rare earth materials
  .
• All it took was a classic bout of haven buying to wake up a slumbering Treasuries market and drive benchmark yields to the lowest in months
  .
• Trump Cuts Off US Aid to Colombia, Calling Leader a Drug Dealer
  . 
• President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says the war with Russia should be frozen along current battle lines before peace negotiations, even as Vladimir Putin continues to demand that Ukraine cede the entire Donetsk region.
• From viral videos to screaming clients, inside the historic squeeze that's gripped the global silver market. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @Zerohedge 

• Vaguely incredible that the @ft writes an article about how current GPU rental prices suggest that AI a bubble, but makes a math error such that all of their calculations are off by a factor of 8 by conflating per server and per GPU economics. Doing the math correctly was actually reasonably bullish for the “subscalers” and super bullish for the hyperscalers. The article is ironically another positive indicator for GPU residual values.
• GS FICC "There was much to-do in fixed income carry this week with Powell on the tapes speaking on reserves, funding markets, and what sounded like sooner-than-later end to QT, combined with higher SOFR rates (SOFR set 15bp higher on Thursday vs last Friday), SRF usage on Wednesday and Thursday ($6.75bn and $8.35bn, respectively), TGCR ticking up from 4.12 last Friday to 4.25 (which is the SRF rate) yesterday. It feels like those with cash currently have the upper hand."
• *FRENCH BOND FUTURES OPEN 15 TICKS LOWER AFTER S&P DOWNGRADE.
• Is This MAGA? Trump Wants Lindsey Graham Donor To Challenge 'RINO' Massie.
• "I've Never Seen Anything Like This": One Bullion Dealer Sees A Rupture In Gold And Silver Markets.
• The U.S. is pushing a peaceful path in Ukraine. So why is the Ukrainian delegation leaking confidential White House talks to pals in the EU/UK—and to the press? 
• Best summary of the US-China dance, from Morgan Stanley. "If you’ve been following the US/China relationship this year, a pattern has emerged: A new round of tariffs or export controls, a flurry of headlines, and market tremors, followed by a search for the next uneasy equilibrium. The latest episode is no exception: China’s move to tighten rare earth export controls and the US threat of 100% tariffs are launching another cycle. While an unsatisfying conclusion for bears and bulls alike, it’s our view that a continued dynamic of rolling negotiations and truces is more likely than either a durable trade peace or a hard economic decoupling. We see this as a grinding, tactical contest for advantage as the US and China seek to secure their economic futures. Against this backdrop, neither Washington nor Beijing seems eager for a true split, at least not anytime soon. The economic costs would be staggering, and both sides know it. Key strategic interdependencies (e.g., rare earths, semiconductors) remain."  
• "Hence, we think both sides are calibrating their moves carefully to avoid tipping the balance. China’s export controls, for example, may end up providing enough flexibility to keep civilian trade flowing, even as they create leverage ahead of high-level negotiations this month. The US, meanwhile, is attempting to ramp up domestic investment in critical sectors while not slamming the door on Chinese imports altogether. The result is a relationship defined by uncertainty, periodic flare-ups, and a persistent sense that the rules of engagement could change at any moment." 
• After Reported "Shouting Match", Zelensky & Trump Agree Battlelines Should Be Frozen Before Final Peace Can Be Brokered. 
• Washington Nuclear Facility Will Deploy 12 Amazon-Funded SMRs.
• Hartnett: Fed Will Cut Aggressively When "Krunchy Kredit" Cracks.
• *FBI PROBING SUSPICIOUS HUNTING STAND W/ LINE TOWARD TRUMP: FOX. *SECRET SERVICE UNCOVERED LINE OF SIGHT TOWARD TRUMP EXIT: FOX. *FOX NEWS REPORTS ON FBI PROBE AT PALM BEACH INTL AIRPORT. 
• China now transshipping exports to the US via Africa. 
• UN Body Votes To Postpone Decision On Global Carbon Tax Amid US 'Outrage'.
• *IDF: STRUCK DOZENS OF HAMAS TARGETS ACROSS GAZA EARLIER TODAY. *IDF: STRIKES TARGETED WEAPONS STORAGE FACILITIES, FIRING POSTS. 
• Secret Service Discovers Hunting Stand Overlooking Trump's Air Force One Exit. 
• They love their gold too. (graph) 
• If the tech bubble has burst, investors don't seem too concerned. (graph)
• Capito on Fox on shutdown: We're ready to talk about healthcare, to talk the system they created, Obamacare, that they now is unaffordable, which we knew it would be when we voted against it several years ago. But Senator Thune has said numerous times that we will talk about this, but he's not gonna let the government be held hostage and hijacked.  
• When Could The Government Shutdown End And What Might Finally Force Breakthrough? 
• *TRUMP: I'M NOT LOOKING TO DESTROY CHINA. *TRUMP: WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN MEETING W/ XI IN 2 WEEKS. 
• "Coup d'Flat": Billionaire-Funded 'No Kings' Color-Revolution Turns Into White Liberal Boomer Parade As Democrats Become National Laughingstock.
• Digital ID Black Pill Moment?  
• 12 Years Of Data Prove China's Belt & Road Initiative Is A Debt Trap.
• The World Has Woken Up To China's Supply Chain Weaponization: Navarro.
• Most Of The Population Of The World Lives In A Nation Where Christians Are Being Persecuted.
• Mamdani Poses With WTC-Linked Imam Whose Son Ran 'Decomposing Child' Terrorist Compound.   

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to climb as investors look toward slate of China economic data
  .
• Stock futures rise ahead of big earnings week: Live updates.
• Trump administration agrees to deliver more student loan forgiveness.
• Global week ahead: 'Cockroaches' crawling toward Europe? 
   
• Earnings playbook: Netflix and Tesla among the big companies slated to report.
• China wants to play the long game with the U.S. What that means for Chinese stocks.

• @MJTruthUltra

• THOUSANDS of Women are Suing Pfizer over their Popular Birth Control Shot, Depo-Provera, linked to BRAIN TUMORS. EU added a warning in 2024 Canada has warned since 2006 The US has no such warning. Pfizer kills people. (video)

• @ProjectConsitu

• ICYMI: This CIA-linked program hiding in plain sight at Utah State Could Hold The Key To The 4 Missing Years Of Tyler Robinson's Past That Are Missing. The internet’s not talking enough about this. Enter "Center For Anticipatory Intelligence" (CAI) At Utah State University — a CIA-affiliated research hub — briefly had Robinson enrolled. $2.4M in US-Israel research funding. Ex–CIA leadership. (video)

• @sheisLaurenLee

• Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla announces their new ELECTRONIC TRACKING PILL: “It is a biological chip, and once you take the tablet, it dissolves into your stomach, and it sends a signal.” “Imagine the applications of that — the compliance.” (video)

• @EYakoby

• Zohran Mamdani’s intern Arzoo Malik is calling for a Holy War through Jihad and martyrdom: “This is all jihad, this is all ibada, and this is all counted for by Allah. How committed am I to this? What am I willing to sacrifice for this noble cause?” (video)

• @DC_Draino

• Nothing to see here. Just a major New Jersey county refusing to allow cameras in ballot storage areas and a sign-in/out log. If there’s no election fraud, then why would they prohibit common sense security like this? Because there is fraud. (pic)

• @Albuffalo2nite

• They call it the No Kings Rally… but they’re marching into the hood to protest the cleaning up of the hood. 100,000 white liberals chanting about “justice”… while demanding we live with gang wars, overdoses, theft, and fear. They don’t live here. They don’t hear the gunfire. They just want to feel moral while we deal with the mess. This video will hit you where it hurts. (video)

• @GenXGirl1994

• AG PAM BONDI CLEARED THE WAY FOR ISRAEL’S FOREIGN INFLUENCE OPERATION. On her 1st day, newly appointed AG Pam Bondi, disbanded the Foreign Influence Task Force, the DOJ office responsible for enforcing FARA. The change specifically limits DOJ prosecutors from criminally charging those involved in public-relations work & policy advocacy on behalf of foreign businesses & nonprofits.

• @joma_gc

• No Crown. #NoKings! She's 86. Has been in Congress for 37 years. Made over $200 million while in office. Filed to run for re-election in 2026. (video)

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• Bernie Sanders openly admits that the Democrats will lose leverage if the shutdown ends. The Democrats care more about their leverage for illegals than they do for the American people. (video)

• @jjauthor

• President Trump urges us to tag @LeaderJohnThune and demand the Senate pass: A. Watermarked paper ballots. B. Same-day voting. C. Voter photo ID. D. Proof of citizenship. E. Election Day holiday. F. Hand counting. G. All of the above. Now or we are doomed. Pass it on - until it is law! What do democrats hate an honest election?

• @AmyMek

• WARNING AMERICA... You think Mamdani is bad? You have no idea what is coming. While everyone is finally waking up to what one CAIR-backed Marxist Muslim candidate in New York represents… CAIR is openly building an entire generation. By 2050, they are working to produce: • 100,000 journalists. • 100,000 filmmakers. • 100,000 lawyers & policy operatives. • 100,000 potential candidates & officeholders — and those candidates can now be supported by CAIR’s new Super PAC. And what is the GOP doing while this political-Islam machine — with documented terror-ties — maps out a 25-year plan to penetrate media, law, government, academia, and culture? Talking. Holding hearings. Drafting “ban CAIR / ban political Islam” bills that will never pass. Tweeting. “Expressing concern.”

• @HerbsandDirt

• THIS IS WHY YOUR DOCTOR GETS AGGRESSIVE. “Blue Cross Blue Shield pays your doctor a $40,000 bonus for fully vaccinating 100 patients under the age of 2. If your doctor manages to fully vaccinate 200 patients, it jumps to $80,000. But here’s the catch: Under BCBS’s rules, pediatricians LOSE THE WHOLE BONUS unless at least 63% of patients are fully vaccinated. This includes the flu vaccine. So it’s not just $400 on your child’s head -it could be the whole bonus.”

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.75 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.99 -.08% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.26 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 78.6 +2.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.02% +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -1.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.55%.
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.