Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.08 +.03%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.12% -4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.60% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index .8 -2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.9 +.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.8 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 500 reporting) +40.9% +18.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.49 +.07:  Growth Rate +14.2% unch., P/E 22.1 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 517.10 +.18: Growth Rate +25.8% unch., P/E 30.4 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 -17.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 unch.
• US Yield Curve 65.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.2% +.9 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -7.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 46.8% (+2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 45.5%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +420 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -75 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.2% 2) Oil Service -1.3% 3) Biotech -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BP, CVBF, KMX, GNRC, TS, WDS, DBVT, EWTX, HPP, STAA, FDS, BIRK, ABM, INSM and INSP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DJT 2) CGC 3) JBL 4) SEI 5) UWMC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) INSP 2) BIRK 3) INSM 4) EPAC 5) SKYE

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLP 3) XLV 4) XLI 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +3.6% 2) Semis +2.8% 3) AI/Innovation +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ITGR, DAVE, TLN, HNRG, HYMC, JMIA, RKLB, HTFL, MU, AXTI, FCEL, DJT, JBIO, AFRM, AMR, CEG, UPB, SBUX, VSEC, ALMS, PHAT, MNMD, VIA, MLKN, EVCM, GEV, KNSL, SIMO, ALGM, LULU, NVT, CUBI, LGN, TSEM, CYTK, ATRO, TSLA, ORLA, INFY, MATX, RTO, PMT, CRESY, WMG, GCT and DB

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) COMP 2) DJT 3) SIG 4) FCEL 5) SOC 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MU 2) SOC 3) RIVN 4) SNDK 5) FGNX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLC 3) KOMP 4) RSPT 5) XAR

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CCL)/.25
• (CAG)/.44
• (LW)/.64
• (PAYX)/1.23
• (WGO)/.13

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for Oct.
• Personal Income MoM for Oct.
• Personal Spending MoM for Oct.
• Conference Board Employment Trends Index for Nov. 

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Nov. is estimated to rise to 4.15M versus 4.1M in Oct.
• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for Dec. 
• The Dallas Fed PCE for Oct. 

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• (TPL) 3-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Dec., weekly US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the (TGLS) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.5 +.1
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 73.6% of Issues Advancing, 23.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.4 +100.0%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$268.8M
  
• 84 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 64.8% (+3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.3 +3.6

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 28.0% -7.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% unch.
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Jan. 31st 35.0% +2.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 93.6 +.8%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 440.75 -2.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 264.5 +1.1%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 157.3 +1.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from FEAR) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.9 -35.6%
  
• Vix 16.0 -8.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .71 -24.5%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• China’s top diplomat has expressed support for Venezuela, criticizing one-sided coercion hours after US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of oil tankers to ratchet up pressure on the South American nation.
• Copper fell as broader markets shifted to a risk-off tone, with stocks dropping on concern over technology valuations.
• Australia will create new hate speech laws following an alleged Islamic State-inspired terrorist attack at Bondi Beach on Sunday that killed 15 Jewish people who had gathered to celebrate Hanukkah.
• US government admits in a federal court filing that it was liable for damages resulting from a collision between an Army helicopter and a regional American Airlines jetliner earlier this year near Washington, one of the deadliest crashes in decades.
• Activist investor Elliott has built a stake of more than $1 billion in Lululemon, the Wall Street Journal reports. 
• OpenAI has held funding talks with investors to raise tens of billions of dollars at a valuation of $750 billion, according to a report in the Information. 
• The so-called “cancer-industrial complex” generates billions of dollars for drug companies. But treatments often fail to extend patients’ lives. @RobertLangreth takes @davidgura inside the big business of cancer treatment on the Big Take podcast. 
• Here's what to know about “Trump accounts” — and how they'd differ from 529s. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• "I inherited A Mess, And I'm Fixing It": Watch President Trump Unveil 'Warrior Dividend', Signal Housing Reform, Not Mention Venezuela. 
• Polysilicon: An Opportunity To Demonstrate 'America First'. 
• Meta Chose Revenue Over Policing Chinese Scam Ads, Documents Show.
• One-Party-Rule Maryland Democrats Ignore Power Bill Crisis, Push Ahead With Slavery Reparations Study.
• CPI Preview: The Last Big Report Of 2025.
• The Brown University “investigation” appears to have rapidly evolved into a cover up.
• Conrad Black: China's Expanding Influence Rekindles US Engagement In Latin America.
• Hedge fund positioning in North American semis got back to peak levels just in time for the biggest SOX puke in a very long time.   
• BREAKING: The Venezuelan military is preparing for a potential confrontation, as President Nicolás Maduro expects clashes with the United States to begin tonight. 
• JUST IN: Ghislaine Maxwell has asked a federal court to vacate or amend her conviction and 20-year prison sentence for sex-trafficking of minors and other offenses, a move that could complicate the release of the Epstein files as mandated by a new law.
• JPMorgan Is Bank Behind The Repo Crisis And The Fed's Decision To Launch QE Lite... Again.
• AI Won't End Marketing, It Will Elevate It To Its Full Potential.
• Bongino out.
• Vance Fires Back At Media Smear: "I Only Believe In The Conspiracy Theories That Are True".
• *MICRON TO BOOST FY26 CAPEX TO $20B, PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS $18B.
• Where Did Global Warming Go? US East Sees Snowiest Start In Nearly Two Decades.
• Data-Center Drama Wrecks Tech; Silver Soars Amid Crypto Chaos.        

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Concerns over Oracle's debt spill over into its projects.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to fall as rotation out of tech continues; traders await Trump address.  
• U.S. admits liability in Army helicopter collision with American Airlines jet that killed 67 people.
• S&P 500 futures rise after index posts fourth losing day, inflation report looms: Live updates.  
• Micron forecasts surging revenue as computer memory demand for AI remains high. 
• Epstein accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell petitions to vacate sex crime conviction.

• @Anc_Aesthetics

• What I know so far about the Brown University political assassination of Ella Cook.

• @RenzTom

• Here’s an oldie but goodie on Susie Wiles from the campaign. I’ve warned people about her for a long time, and this administration’s failure to achieve key MAGA goals proves why. You can’t have a Bush loyalist chief of staff owned by globalist and deep state interests if you want MAGA to succeed.
• The reason Pam Bondi is letting the statute of limitations run out on the Democratic and leftist crooks behind J6 is that’s part of what Susie Wiles hired her to do. The Vanity Fair article today was not a hit piece—it literally quoted her. It simply exposed who she appears to be: a Big Pharma, globalist, Bush loyalist undermining MAGA from within. Prove me wrong. Show me prosecutions that actually work. Explain why RFK is still allowing mRNA to be on the market. Tell me why Trump is endorsing people like Lindsey Graham and eating dinner with people like Bourla and Gates.

• @DefiantLs

• Hungary has moved to criminalize NGO and other groups who assist illegal migrants. Naming it the "Stop Soros" law. (video)

• @TomFitton

• @RealDonaldTrump should ask why his DOJ is STILL protecting the Obama/Biden/Clinton gang in federal court. (video)

• @AnnaEconomist

• Our own million prices cpi tracker see many goods inflation rolling over in November. Our CPI preview on @TheTerminal right now. (graph)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: A DEVASTATING new poll just came out finding Congressional Democrats' approval is at -55 POINTS, per Quinnipiac. RECORD LOW. 18% approve, 73% disapprove. Holy smokes. That is BAD! Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are cooked.
  

• @WallStreetApes

• California Democrats are actually doing it, Reparations for black people was just signed by the the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. Democrats are going to take from citizens who never owned slaves, to give to people who were never slaves, in a state that never had slaves. “Today, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors passed a measure that would create a fund designed to help black people who have been harmed by past city laws, including redlining from the 1950s through the 70s”. (video)

• @DC_Draino

• There needs to be a massive Federal investigation into Brown University. They are covering up a potential terrorist attack. They have been exposed for allowing violent leftist ideologies to fester on their campus. And they smeared an Army Veteran b/c he was a white male who looked NOTHING like the shooter. Deep rot.

• @Saul_Sadka

• SHOCKING: Bondi survivor Vanessa Miller was separated from her three-year-old daughter and pinned down by gunfire. She told @Erin_Molan that she tried to grab the gun of a critically injured officer to suppress the terrorists, but other officers—rather than returning fire themselves—held her back. “These police officers were hiding behind a car... I tried to grab one of their guns. Another one grabbed me and said 'no.' I hope they are hearing this. You are weak. You could have saved so many more people’s lives. They were just watching this all happen, holding me back.” (video)

• @iBankCoin4tw

• HARVARD SECRETLY INVESTIGATES STUDENTS OVER LARRY SUMMERS VIDEO ON EPSTEIN: NYT.

• @TonySeruga

• GPS—Rob Reiner appears in the immediate vicinity of Barack Hussein Obama II, over 500 times, including in Mexico, where Bill and Hillary Clinton joined them. Barack and Michelle Obama had planned to meet with Rob Reiner and his wife, Michele Singer Reiner, for dinner on the evening of Sunday, December 14, 2025—the same day their bodies were discovered in their Brentwood home in Los Angeles. Michelle Obama publicly confirmed this during an appearance on Jimmy Kimmel Live! on December 15 or 16, stating that she and her husband had known the Reiners for many years and "were supposed to be seeing them that night" before learning of their deaths. The Committee to Investigate Russia (also known as http://InvestigateRussia.org), a nonprofit organization founded and directed by Rob Reiner in 2017 to highlight Russian interference in U.S. elections, had an advisory board that included four former CIA directors (or acting directors): Leon Panetta (CIA Director, 2009–2011) Michael Hayden (CIA Director, 2006–2009; also former NSA Director) Michael Morell (Acting CIA Director, 2011 and 2012–2013) John Brennan (CIA Director, 2013–2017; referenced in related events and materials, though primary listings emphasize the above) Rob Reiner served as a key figure and board member, often credited as "Director" in organizational materials.

• @ABridgen

• The mainstream media are finally reporting that 90% of UK doctors and nurses are refusing the flu shot. 73% refused the Covid 19 booster in 2024 that has also increased now to 90% in some hospitals. Why are 90% of Drs and nurses now ‘Anti-vaxxers’ ? Answers in the comments please ! (video)

• @GuntherEagleman

• BREAKING: Rep Mike Lawler has just SIDED WITH DEMOCRATS on extending the most CORRUPT Obamacare subsidies EVER. Instead of DOING THEIR JOBS, they sided with the SAME PEOPLE who hate their entire existence. Let
  @RepMikeLawler know what you think of what they just did.

• @RepNancyMace

• Here's where we're at: Instead of codifying President Trump’s executive orders, last week the House passed a bill to nullify one of them after moderates teamed up with Democrats on a discharge petition. This week, while we are planning to consider a Republican healthcare bill, leadership moved a closed rule, silencing members and not giving them votes on their amendments (including mine). Because of this, moderate Republicans signed the Hakeem Jeffries discharge petition and we will now have to consider a Democrat bill extending Biden COVID-era enhanced Obamacare subsidies for 3 years with no reforms. Have we lost total control of the House?

• @MrSausageGet

• The point of the Susie Wiles recordings was to prove she is in charge of Trump and the Republican party. She spit in their faces and stabbed them in the back to a liberal communist rag, then watched as they all STILL publicly pledged their blind obedience and loyalty.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.25 +1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.05 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 92.5 -.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.14% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.38% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.