Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, September 29, 2008
Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Defeat of Financial Rescue Package, Global Growth Worries, Rising Credit Angst
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Federal Reserve will pump an additional $630 billion into the global financial system, flooding banks with cash.
Wall Street Journal:
Lloyd’s List:
- Venezuelan crude oil supplies to
CBSNews:
- UK residential development land has dropped by a third in value over the past year, and by up to 15 per cent in the past quarter, as problems among housebuilders have accelerated the devaluation of increasingly fallow land banks. The losses in land values around the country are worse than many had feared, according to Knight Frank's first annual development land index. The property consultancy expects values to continue to fall, predicting that 10 per cent could be further wiped off prices over the next 12 months.
Bull Radar
Style Outperformer:
Small-cap Value (-3.38%)
Sector Outperformers:
Defense (-1.21%), Restaurants (-1.29%) and Medical Equipment (-1.52%)
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
ABX, KGC, C, MSFG, FPFC and CPLA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) APC 2) EGO 3) COG 4) DSL 5) NCC
Links of Interest
Market Performance Summary
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Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
-
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
- Market-beating market timers are more bullish than the laggards.
NY Times:
Forbes.com:
- Fastest-Growing US Industries.
Reuters:
Financial Times:
Sunday Telegraph:
International Herald Tribune:
- The end of a Wall Street era, even at Goldman Sachs(GS).
The Guardian:
Bild-Zeitung:
- The German government will “clearly” lower its forecast for economic growth next year because of the effects of turmoil in financial markets, citing Economy Minister Michael Glos. “We will probably have to clearly revise down our forecast” of 1.2% growth for 2009.
E24:
- The Norwegian building market will shrink by $3.5 billion next year, hurt by the financial crisis and higher borrowing costs, citing the country’s Construction Association. Both residential and commercial construction will decline, eliminating as many as 15,000 jobs, the group said.
Handelsblatt
- Audi AG, Volkswagen AG’s luxury-car brand, wants to step up US spending to boost sales in the world’s largest automobile market. Audi wants to increase deliveries to almost 100,000 units in the region this year and double that number in the longer term, Audi sales chief Peter Schwarzenbauer said. The VW unit wants to more than double its marketing efforts and spend several hundreds of millions of euros in the
El Mercurio:
- Chilean export growth may decline as a result of the worst global financial crisis in decades, chairman of Banco Santander, the country’s biggest bank, said.
Folha de Sao Paulo:
-
Nikkei:
- Toyota Motor Corp.,
Ming Pao Daily News:
- Luxury housing rents in
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (MOT), (JAVA), (JPM), (TEL) and (PFE).
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (TOL), raised target to $31.50.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on avg.
S&P 500 futures -.71%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.61%.
Morning Preview
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Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (SCS)/.22
- (WAG)/.45
- (CC)/-1.04
Upcoming Splits
- (DXPE) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for August is estimated to rise .2% versus a -.7% decline in July.
- Personal Spending for August is estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% gain in July.
- The PCE Core for August is estimated to rise .2% versus a .3% gain in July.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The (AWI) Investor Meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and shipping shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Weekly Outlook
Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.
There are a few economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. – Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Core
Tues. – S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Consumer Confidence, NAPM-Milwaukee, weekly retail sales reports
Wed. – Total Vehicle Sales, weekly EIA energy inventory data, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, ISM Prices Paid
Thur. – Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
Fri. – Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. – Steelcase(SCS), Walgreen Co.(WAG),
Tues. – Pepsi Bottling Group(PBG)
Wed. – Actuant Corp.(ATU), Mosaic
Thur. – Marriott(MAR), Constellation Brands(STZ), Global Payments(GPN), Resources Connection(RECN)
Fri. – Family Dollar(FDO)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. – (AWI) Investor Meeting
Tue. – (SJI) Analyst Meeting, (VQ) Analyst Day, (ATO) Analyst Meeting
Wed. – Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference, (ENER) Investor Day, (OKS) Analyst Meeting, (SFE) Analyst Day
Thur. – Cowen Therapeutics Conference
Fri. – None of note