Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg.
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on impeachment talk, technical selling, China trade tensions, global growth concerns, European/Emerging Markets/US High Yield debt angst and yen strength. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Activists Hurl Bricks, Police Use Water Cannon: Hong Kong Update.

• ‘This Is Huge’: U.S. Threat to Curb Chinese Investments Hits Wall Street.

• China’s Top Diplomat Warns Trade War Could Plunge World Into Recession.

• China Markets to Test the Risk of Most Extreme U.S. Threat Yet.  

• Slowing Economy and Deflation Cause China’s Company Profits to Drop.  

• Oil Caps Worst Week Since July as Trump Revs Up China Trade Feud.  

• Charting the Global Economy: The Week in Review.

• Your Weekend Reading: Risk of Serious Harm.

• From Washington to Hong Kong, Defiance Abounds: Weekend Reads.  

• Early Signs of Vaping Health Risks Were Missed or Ignored.  

• Bitcoin Bulls Take to Twitter for Reassurance After Crypto Crash.

Wall Street Journal:

• Democrats Set Rapid Timetable for Trump Impeachment Probe.

• For China’s Xi, the Hong Kong Crisis Is Personal.

• Global Slowdown Spreads Across U.S. Economy.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (ONCE), (SGMO), (VRTX), (RGNX), (QURE), (KRYS), (AAL), (WFC), (PCTY), (KRNT) and (TREX).

MarketWatch.com:

• What investors need to know about a potential White House effort to block U.S. investment in China.

• The Future of Biotech: Our Roundtable Experts Pick 15 Promising Stocks.

Fox News:

• Gov. Cuomo: Pelosi folded to ‘leftist’ Dems, impeachment push 'unproductive'.

CNBC:

• White House deliberates block on all US investments in China.

• US pulling investment from China would be an ‘unmitigated disaster,’ says Yale’s Stephen Roach.

• Xi’s historic power grab has cost China a great deal of stability.

• As Amazon floods the market with Alexa devices, the business model is getting fresh scrutiny.

• More deaths, investigations and turmoil at Juul: Here’s what happened in the vaping crisis this week.

Zero Hedge:

• Erdogan: "Impossible" For Turkey To Stop Its Iranian Oil & Gas Imports.

• Intel Community Quietly Scrapped Requirement For "First-Hand Knowledge" Before CIA 'Rumorblower' Relied On Hearsay.

• For Renters, These Are The Most Expensive Neighborhoods In The US.

• China Unveils "Super Surveillance Camera" That Can Link To Its Social Credit System.

• Marriage Rates Are Falling Due To Shortage Of "Economically Attractive" Men, Study Finds.

• PCR: Adam Schiff Epitomizes The Total Collapse Of Democratic Party Integrity.

• Australia Introduces AI Cameras To Bust Distracted Drivers.

• New Docs Contradict Biden Claim That Fired Ukrainian Prosecutor Was Corrupt.

• Greta Thunberg To Poor Countries: Drop Dead.

• Nosedive: LAX Passenger Traffic Stalls, International Traffic Drops, Air Cargo Volumes Plunge.

• Sound Familiar? Banks Are Saddling Fannie & Freddie With Risky Mortgages, Study Finds.

• Is This How GOP Will Answer Pelosi's Pre-Planned, Lawfare-Assisted Impeachment Plan?

• Debt Bombs: Here Are The States With The Most Debt.

• US Treasury Denies It Plans To Block Chinese Listings On US Exchanges.

• 10 Reasons Democrats' Impeachment Argument Is Falling Apart.

• Bootleg Weed Vapes Found To Contain Cyanide.

• Quid Pro Nope: Ukraine Reportedly Had No Idea About Trump Withholding $400 Million Until Month After Call.

Business Insider:

• Hong Kong protesters say they're prepared to fight for democracy 'until we win or we die'.

The Telegraph:

• Impeaching a US president is always bad news for the markets.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,948.29 -1.45%

 























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 26,780.68 -.75%

• NASDAQ 7,922.21 -2.69%

• Russell 2000 1,515.58 -2.80%

• S&P 500 High Beta 40.91 -2.94%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 143.13 -5.26%

• Wilshire 5000 30,219.15 -1.66%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,585.97 -2.04%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,254.90 -1.06%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 624.21 +.72%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,115.96 +.91%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,885.19 -3.18%

• Transports 10,338.98 -1.23%

• Utilities 874.07 +1.25%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 71.21 -1.77%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.77 -2.08%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,242.03 -.16%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 957.59 +.07%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 373,871 -1.05%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -91 -340

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 28.6 -56.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 427,105 -.26%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,073,041 -.38%

• Total Put/Call 1.06 +1.92%

• OEX Put/Call .32 -87.7%

• ISE Sentiment 78.0 -12.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.18 -6.3%

• Volatility(VIX) 18.5 +21.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.23 +14.84%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.86 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.12 -1.34%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,573.36 -1.73%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.443 Trillion +1.19%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$11.807 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 29.4 -16.9%

• AAII % Bears 33.3 +19.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 175.72 -.91%

• Crude Oil 55.92 -3.92%

• Reformulated Gasoline 164.88 -1.99%

• Natural Gas 2.40 -5.21%

• Heating Oil 194.06 -2.97%

• Gold 1,497.20 -1.19%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 173.4 -1.58%

• Copper 259.60 +.12%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 237.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.84%

• China Iron Ore Spot 87.51 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%

• Lumber 371.0 -3.31%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 844.06 +1.26%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.11% +17.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.2% +130.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 35.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1265 -4.96%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 130.09 -3.54%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 176.06 -.12%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.30 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -74.90 -48.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.10 +1.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 54.5% chance of no change, 45.5% chance of rate cut on 10/30

• US Dollar Index 99.11 +.66%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,609.28 -.37%

• Bitcoin/USD 8,032.22 -20.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.58 -.32%

• Yield Curve 3.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.69% -5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.819 Trillion +.35%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.57 -3.38%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 191.99 +.98%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.75 -4.75 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.28 +6.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 138.57 +5.05%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.32 -4.05%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.27 +1.05%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 84.73 +5.37%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.0 +.21%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.54% -6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 32.5 +6.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread -.75 +3.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.5 -30.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.83 +3.54%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 436.0 +15.9%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 66.66 +5.19%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 212.47 +3.89%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.876 Trillion -.38%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,097.40 +.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,000 -250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% -10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.64% -9.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 512.20 -10.1%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.7 -1.0 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.70% -20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.65/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,963 -7.88%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 807.84 -1.28%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 +7.69%

• Rail Freight Carloads 277,876 +1.26%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -3.1%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +2.0%

• Utilities +1.4%

• Papers +1.4%

• Homebuilding +.7%

• Retail +.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Education -4.5% 

• Biotech -5.4%

• Alt Energy -5.4%

• Healthcare Providers -5.5%

• Oil Service -8.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (1)

• DRNA

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (18)

• MSGN, MCO, ROKU, GWRE, MCK, BMRN, EVBG, BK, CYRX, SPWR, FSLR, BOX, CRWD, SMAR, AXDX, GKOS, MU and INMD

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Rising China Trade Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 +11.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.54 +.21%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.12 -.25%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.5 +8.5%

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 +13.5%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +.96%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 -14.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.56 +1.64%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 424.0 -1.56%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.29 -1.68%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.75 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.71 +.70%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 211.63 +.13%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.0 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread .75 +2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 32.75 +8.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.75 -21.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.30 -.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.78% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve .03 +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 87.51 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.30 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -74.90 -11.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.1 -.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.54 -3.0 basis points
• 74.7% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 85.9% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -158 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -193 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -85 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/industrial/medical/retail/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long