Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 +2.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 45.75 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.1 -.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.93%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by tech and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Sharply into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Tariff Concerns, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 -.32%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.9 euros/megawatt-hour +8.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.7 -2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.2 -2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +13.6% +1.6 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.78 +.08:  Growth Rate +12.1% -3.2 percentage points, P/E 21.5 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.93% +103.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +31.5% +4.9 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 407.78 +.35: Growth Rate +31.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 unch.
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.64 +7.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 21.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.3% +1.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 73.8% (+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 53.5%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -581 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -112 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech/utility/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -3.1% 2) Gold & Silver -2.6% 3) Computer Hardware -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ASX, SHOO, CORT, LIND, PRKS, RTO, MIRM, KYMR, PBR, BKV, TRMD, CAVA, EBAY, AI, APA, TKO, TEM, BMA, XRAY, WHD, TRS, VITL, VNET, CCOI, VAC, NVCR, SHC, FE, AMBC, VST, RSI, BBWI, PSTG, FA, CLPT, INOD, AMBA, FTDR, SEMR, VERX, AAON, CARS, TFX, TNDM and IBTA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BBWI 2) MNST 3) COMM 4) ABR 5) VITL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SMCI 2) IBTA 3) CVEO 4) VTRS 5) XRAY

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLP 3) XLE 4) XLI 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Insurance +2.2% 2) Energy +1.9% 3) Restaurants +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ROOT, MEG, ARIS, LMND, ESTA, LZ, GRRR, EVTC, VSEC, HEI, NTNX, BTDR, ERJ, NXST, MARA, WBD, ATEC, TGLS, SDGR, GRBK, CORZ, URBN, SNOW, ARDT, ZK, ONC, VRNA, LYFT, ACIW, CPRX, PRVA, GEO, UNM, SPIR, CFLT, HGV, TGNA, DK, GO, CLF, HG, INVH, HHH, HIMS, FTI, WRBY, KTOS, SATS, PEB, WGS, OVV, COLD, TDW, FLYW, BBIO, STRL, IAC, CERT, ODD, UHS, AMH, NTLA, DSP, RBLX, ZI, XPEV, STX, CYD, VIPS, YOU, TOST and JOE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SRE 2) VTRS 3) GOGL 4) MNKD 5) LITE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SNOW 2) NTNX 3) HEI 4) NXST 5) EVTC

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLB 3) XRT 4) XLV 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GTLS)/3.10
• (OMI)/.52
• (PAR)/-.09
  

After the Close: 

• (CLMT)/-.73
• (FRO)/.25
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• Personal Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in Dec.
• Real Personal Spending for Jan. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated at -$116.7B versus -$122.2B in Dec.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in Dec.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.5% decline in Dec.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Feb. is estimated to rise to 40.8 versus 39.5 in Jan.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, Susquehanna Tech Conference, (ACM) annual meeting, (WEX) investor meeting and the BofA Ag/Materials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +32.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 +.6
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 50.0% of Issues Advancing, 46.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .87 -16.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$15.9M
  
• 24 New 52-Week Highs, 81 New Lows
• 48.9% (-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.9 +.1

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.7 +.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.1 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,536.0 -.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 22.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 15.6 -23.8%
  
• Vix 19.0 -.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .67 -27.2%