Sunday, January 25, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC
  • @Barron's 
  • Had bullish commentary on (BJ) and (AIG).
  • @MarioNawful
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @TheSCIF
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @Breaking911
  • @laralogan
  • @RenzTom
  • Medical kidnapping is a quiet epidemic. Here’s how it works: 1. A child or dependent is “diagnosed” (sometimes incorrectly) with a condition. 2. Corrupt doctors demand that parents follow Big Pharma protocols. 3. Parents seek a second opinion or prefer an alternative treatment that generates no profit for doctors or pharma. 4. Doctors call CPS. 5. Unbeknownst to parents, CPS holds secret hearings with judges to obtain a temporary restraining order (TRO) to remove the child, since agencies receive more funding with higher numbers of children in custody. 6. The judge grants permission. 7. CPS arrives with police and removes (“kidnaps”) the child. (video)
  • @OneBadDude_
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho 
  • @drawandstrike
  • @TonySeruga
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @Cernovich
  • @nicksortor
  • @NicHulsher
  • @DC_Draino
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @VASenateGOP
  • @DataRepublican
  • @MAGAVoice
  • @LeadingReport
  • @goddek
  • @PeterBernegger
  • Dominion Voting and ES&S use Dell computers and servers in their voting systems, per the vendor contracts I have obtained from numerous counties across the USA. Dell has to know that Chinese chips, motherboards and other programmable parts are going into voting systems used in the USA. Dell builds the computers they sell to Dominion and ES&S. With chips and motherboards coming from, in part, and/or through Eversun (Avalue) out of Taiwan, and also Flextronics, but from China. All per Dominion's own emails, see the many tweets below. Michael Dell serves on the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum, the executive committee of the International Business Council and the U.S. Business Council.
  • @FFT1776
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @Shilohmarx
  • @DMichaelTripi
  • @WallStreetMav
  • Are you kidding me right now? AG Bondi: We sent Governor Walz a very strong letter. Host: Were there any consequences in the letter? Bondi: Well, we’ll see. The situation is fluid. I wish this was a joke... (video)
  • @GordonGChang
  • @Ne_pas_couvrir
  • @C_3C_3
  • Follow along… Dems cheat in next elections without the SAVE ACT to get power. Dems nuke filibuster. Dems pack courts. Dems give amnesty to 30 million illegals. Dems open border. Dems pass NO ID laws. Dems turn US into a 1 party country forever. Dems kill the US. Simple.
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @GoldenAgeTimes2
  • @annvandersteel
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.75 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%.
  • Gold 5,115.3 USD/t oz. +2.0% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 +2.6%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.31 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.5 -1.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.21% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.62% -2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +2.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.25%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.24%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.39%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Friday, January 23, 2026

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,911.7 -.4%

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 49,088.8 -.6%
  • NASDAQ 23,497.2 +.1%
  • Russell 2000 2,668.2 -.1%
  • NYSE FANG+ 15,382.7 -.8%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 281.42 +5.1%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 34.9 +1.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 68,477.4 -.3%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,714.3 -.4%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,149.7 -.4%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 922.7 +.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 266.9 +1.1%
  • NYSE Technology 7,486.3 -.2%
  • Transports 18,214.0 -.8%
  • Utilities 1,071.5 -2.9%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 117.9 +.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 58.9 +1.5%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 254.27 +.6%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 131.1 +.01%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 601,311 +.2%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.1 +8.4%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,952 +220
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -7.1 +9.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 58,128 +1.4%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,018,789 +2.5%
  • Total Put/Call .84 +9.3%
  • OEX Put/Call .90 +29.0%
  • ISE Sentiment 149.0 -.7%
  • NYSE Arms .89 -40.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 102.7 +1.4%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.60 -8.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.5 -1.9%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .54 -8.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 12.4 -2.8%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.88 +2.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.37 +.6%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 20,104.8 -1.7%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  88.5 -7.5
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.699 Trillion -.4%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$20.170 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 43.2 -12.7%
  • AAII % Bears 32.7 +16.0%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 55.0 (NEUTRAL) +4.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 308.4 +.5%
  • Crude Oil 61.1/bbl. +3.1%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 185.2 +3.8%
  • Natural Gas 5.24 +68.5%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 68.7 USD/Megawatt +3.8% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.0 euros/megawatt-hour +8.6%
  • Heating Oil 243.3 +10.2% 
  • Newcastle Coal 112.8 (1,000/metric ton) +1.2%
  • Gold 4,980.1 +8.3%
  • Silver 101.8 +12.5%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 172.8 -.6%
  • Copper 593.0 -1.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 376.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 22,275.0 USD/metric tonne +30.0%
  • CME Lumber 594.5 -2.1%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,303.0 +.2%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 300.0 USD/Short Ton -.8%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +5.4% +.1 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.6 -1.6 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.3 -5.7%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 592.3 +211.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.9 +146.5%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(62 of 500 reporting) +17.7% +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.42 +.76:  Growth Rate +16.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 22.1 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.12% -6.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 491.33 +4.39: Growth Rate +19.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.0 -.7
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.2 +8.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.8 -6.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.3 -3.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 2.8%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 97.2%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 1/28/26
  • US Dollar Index 97.7 -1.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,852.2 +.2%
  • Bitcoin/USD 89,799 -5.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 209.06 +.53%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.87 +.48%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 63.5 +1.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.24% +2.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.64% +15.0 basis points 
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.537 Trillion +.04%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.642 Billion -38.3%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.7 +7.6%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 179.7 -2.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 61.0 -1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.2 +.4%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.6 -3.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 131.4 -3.8%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.7 -.4%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.79 +.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.24%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 118.6 +.63%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.2% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.8% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.84% +8.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.35% +1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.99 +19.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 unch.
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.5 basis points +4.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 3.5 -.25 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 48.9 +.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 176.0 -2.6%
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 420.25 +4.0% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 227.0 -5.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.3 -.1%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 125.8 -1.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 98.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 594.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .50 -1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.3% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,401.6B -.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 201,500 -1.8%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 56.9 +16.7%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.18% -2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 397,200 +14.1%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.6% -.1 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +19.0% +10.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $128.1M -28.5%
  • Nationwide Gas $2.86/gallon +.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,761.0 +12.4%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,291.9/40 ft Box -9.5%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,208.8 -.1%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 67.5 +3.9%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 89.8 -7.7%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 280,602 +4.3%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,235,021 +11.6% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 47.0% +2.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +9.8%
  • Nuclear +5.4%
  • Disk Drives +5.0%
  • Oil Service +4.8%
  • Biotech +3.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Utilities -2.9%
  • Medical Equipment -3.3%
  • Digital Health -3.3%
  • Homebuilding -3.4%
  • Gambling -8.5%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (60)
  • LIF, SGML, ADUR, DQ, IREN, ENGN, RDW, CLPT, VOYG, UAMY, APLD, ERIC, USAR, METC, CLSK, USAU, QURE, CASH, HYMC, WYFI, SBSW, CORT, BAND, BAH, TME, SCZM, FTNT, CIFR, UUUU, SPIR, ALK, DBVT, RIOT, RSLV, ALM, CMCL, ALM, CMCL, ERO, RKLB, DBVT, SLM, TECK, PBR/A, PAAS, MARA, ORLA, CSX, CIB, MSFT, GILD, SCCO, CSX, CNTA, EQNR, BBAR, WIX, NOW, SVM, SPOT, TEN and CEF
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)
  • EWBC, SIGI, CVGW, HS, KTB, WST, MMYT, OFG, COF, LPTH, CUBI, STVN, APGE, VELO and INTC
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change