Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Less Global Tariff Uncertainty, US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +260 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +134 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/transport/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DPZ)/5.38
• (FRPT)/.39 
• (D)/.67
• (BCC)/.12 

After the Close: 

• (BBBY)/-.44
• (BWXT)/.89
• (FANG)/2.00
• (FWRD)/-.26
• (HIMS)/.04
• (KEYS)/2.00
• (KTOS)/.16
• (MYGN)/-.01
• (ZD)/2.70 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Jan. 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Dec. is estimated to . 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Wolfe Research Software Conference, Barclays Communications/Content Symposium, (HUM) investor meeting and the BMO Metals/Mining/Critical Minerals Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• President Trump and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto finalized a trade agreement, ending months of uncertainty with an accord that’s expected to lower US tariffs.
• Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to mark the opening of a new parliamentary session by presenting a broad economic vision in which government policies help stoke private investment into key industries to secure the nation’s future. 
• The Trump administration is planning a new Peace Corps initiative that would send thousands of US science and math graduates abroad to boost foreign countries’ reliance on American technology.
• Blue Owl's redemption halt undercuts one of private credit's key differentiators from other corners of finance. 
• Retail investors appear to be bearing the brunt of the blow during crypto's latest slide.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• Watch: Iran, Russia, China Joint Drills Kick Off In Crowded Waters As NOTAM Issued. 
• US Weighing Initial Limited Strike To Force Iran Into Nuclear Deal – WSJ. Trump is mulling an initial limited military strike on Iran to pressure Tehran into a nuclear deal, The Wall Street Journal reported, saying it would fall short of a full-scale attack. Citing unnamed sources, the report said the opening assault – if authorized – could come within days and target a few military or government sites. If Iran still refused to agree to Trump’s demand of ending nuclear enrichment, Washington would respond with a broad campaign, potentially aimed at toppling the Tehran regime. 
• Our entire childhoods were all directly curated by eugenicist cannibal pedophiles how do we even process this, like where do we go from here? The pizza stuff was child's play compared to this.
• Incidentally do we know yet in which offshore bank JEE kept his billions? Those wire transfers would be very interesting. 
• The Atlantic Busted Fabricating Dead Kid Measles Story. 
• Do Democrat Cities And States Love Rolling In Their Own Filth?
• Trump Orders Release Of All Files Related To UFOs & Aliens.
• US Investigating Portland Public Schools For Racial Discrimination.
• Disaster On The Potomac: What Role DEI Played In America's Worst Sewage Spill.  
• Even the biggest Democrats are fleeing California.
• Boasberg Rubber-Stamps DOJ Request To Keep FBI-Twitter Payments Secret.
• Taiwan just earned ＄150B trade surplus from America in 2025. Yet they still puts 17.5% tariff on American cars..
• Hawaii Bills Would Allow Gov't To Quarantine People, Enter Property, Seize Firearms, & Suspend Laws.
• BREAKING: The House Oversight Committee is releasing the FULL deposition video of Les Wexner from our Epstein investigation. No spin. The American people deserve to see the testimony for themselves—transparency matters. Link to full deposition below. (video) 
• Trump's War Room Assesses The Midterms: It's The Economy, Stupid.
• Medical Groups Sue FTC Over Probe Into Gender Dysphoria Treatments.
• Why Exactly Did They Destroy The Border?
• Bonds & Black Gold Bid Amid Mixed Macro, Creaky Consumer, & Tehran Tensions.     

• @CNBC

• Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI, source says.
• CNBC Daily Open: Private credit fears and U.S.-Iran tensions pressure Wall Street.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Japan inflation falls below BOJ's 2% target for first time since March 2022.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to dip, tracking Wall Street losses, amid U.S.-Iran tensions.
• Stock futures are little changed ahead of key economic data, possible tariff court ruling: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Akamai Technologies, Opendoor, Live Nation & more.

• @EmeraldRobinson

• All of America's corporate media outlets are controlled by our intelligence agencies. That's why those media outlets AVOID the Epstein files while focusing so much coverage on the Nancy Guthrie story. Their entire job is to distract you from the truth.

• @MarioNawful

• Someone claims their grandmother, a former housekeeper at Epstein's Manhattan home, walked out with hidden memory cards, photos, videotapes, and audio tapes when she was fired. He says the material contains child pornography, that ABC's Mark Remillard wouldn't accept it because of that, and that Fox News verified its authenticity but refused to release all of it for "political reasons." A grandmother in Colombia may be sitting on what investigators spent years looking for, while 2 major news networks saw it and looked the other way. (pic)
• EPSTEIN HAD ACCESS TO ONE OF THE MOST CLASSIFIED ROOMS IN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT... A DECADE AFTER HIS CONVICTION. In the files, Epstein messages Steve Bannon saying he's ""going into a SCIF talk tomorrow."" A SCIF is one of the most classified briefing rooms in the U.S. government. This was 2018, a full decade after his conviction. (video)
• Epstein Files reveal Howard Lutnick reportedly purchased 11 E 71st Street through a trust for $10, right next door to Epstein's infamous Manhattan townhouse. Les Wexner and Epstein owned the adjoining property. Lutnick says he cut ties in 2005. The files show contact through 2018. (pic) 

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Environmental Protection Agency chief Lee Zeldin - is now admitting Geo-Engineering all across America. However, they just simply refuse to stop it. (video)

• @TheSCIF

• Nevada's 2020 election fraud exposed by a surge in mail-in ballots from 6.3k in 2016 to over 690k in 2020, using the pandemic to adopt a universal mail-in voting system, removing registration restrictions, with over 40k voting 2x, 20k+ having no address, 2.4k out-of-state address, 1.5k dead voters, and 4k+ votes cast by non-citizens. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• EPSTEIN FILES: On September 20, 2012, a redacted named individual told Epstein — “Some Bad Stuff is about to happen in Israel.” The very next day, a significant security incident occurred in southern Israel on September 21, 2012, known as the September 2012 southern Israel cross-border attack (also called the September 2012 Egypt-Israel border attack). What happened? (pic)

• @LaurenLee

• Terrifying new drop from Bill Gates: "A CONTROL CENTER" is needed for the New World. "They've registered the farmers. Registered what types of crops they grow and what kind of land they own." "They literally have a control center." Gates expresses his support for total population surveillance like they're doing now in parts of India: "It all starts with identity, payments, and bank accounts," but will build out from there, extending to health records, ownership information, and preparing for "new diseases." Imagine this being implemented here in the US. Scary. (video)

• @TonySeruga

• Seriously? This is how in your face the deep state is! FISA Court Appoints Biden Disinformation Board Architect Jennifer Daskal as Advisor. The secretive Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) has officially appointed Jennifer Daskal, a key architect of the Biden administration’s shredded “Disinformation Governance Board,” as a legal advisor. The woman who helped design the very apparatus meant to police your speech is now whispering in the ears of the judges who sign off on secret spy warrants.

• @KellyLMcCarty

• Trump just signed an executive order granting IMMUNITY to GLYPHOSATE PESTICIDE MANUFACTURERS . This is outrageous, and everyone should speak up and make their voices heard in opposition. (pic)

• @nicksortor

• JUST IN: Senate Republicans are getting BLASTED in the White House press briefing. “President Trump is backing a lot of these senators for reelection, and yet they will NOT get rid of this 60-vote cloture rule, which is holding EVERYTHING up!” “EVERYONE in this room KNOWS if the Democrats take over, they'll get rid of that rule in 90 minutes!” “DHS closed and SAVE America Act — BOTH can get solved in 15 MINUTES it Senate Leader Thune got rid of the phony 60-vote cloture rule, and got 51 votes, and that would be the END of it!” (video)

• @HighWireTalk

• Bill Gates has a Jeffrey Epstein Problem... Bill Gates essentially represents the integrity of the vaccination program. You can't think of vaccines without thinking about this guy. But Bill Gates has chosen to use Jeffrey Epstein (over the past decade) as a close confidant and business partner. And the internal emails that were just released tell you everything you need to know. Jes Staley, the head investment banker at JP Morgan, has his assistant reach out to Jeffrey Epstein with this message: "Hi Jeffrey, Jes Staley asked me to pass along these questions from the JP Morgan team that is putting together some ideas for Gates." Jeffrey Epstein replies. And this is where it gets interesting: "A donor advised fund. It could tie initially just to the Gates program. Minimum gift $100 million. Done right, it's $100 billion in two years." Read that again. $100 billion. In two years... (video)

• @KillAuDeepState

• BOOM! The Epstein Files have emails showing the Israeli consulate installed and maintained the equipment inside Epstein’s New York apartment. (link)

• @KamVTV

• An Air Force whistleblower who worked in bio-environmental engineering stepped forward, and what she’s saying is explosive. We are being sprayed like bugs. According to her, we’re not crazy for looking up at the sky and asking questions. For years, anyone who questioned what’s happening overhead was mocked and dismissed. Now someone from inside the system is speaking out. You can ignore it. You can laugh it off. Or you can start demanding transparency. (video)

• @EndTribalism

• Important!!! The new Republican House Farm Bill quietly advances pesticide immunity from harm for companies. Sec. 10205: This provision blocks states and local governments from requiring any warnings beyond what the EPA approves, shielding companies from liability...
• Jillian Michaels just exposesd how Bill Gates turned $55 million into over $1 billion in months by backing the first mRNA vaccine. “Here’s the receipt that most people never see.” “In the late summer of 2019, just months before any of us ever heard the word Wuhan, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation made a $55 million equity investment in a small German biotech company called BioNTech.” “Then the pandemic hits and the world shuts down.” (video)

• @merlinscapital

• Larry Fink CEO of Blackrock, ties to Epstein get worse and worse. Full compromat. (pic)

• @MikeBenzCyber

• Now even Blob Media is admitting Ukraine commandos blew up the Nord Stream pipeline, the CIA knew it and even coordinated with them in advance, then the Biden State Department lied to your face and told you Russia did it.

• @OcrazioCornPop

• SENATE SABATOGE: Mitch McConnell (or his handler) is BLOCKING the "SAVE AMERICA ACT"! As Chairman of the Senate Rules Committee, Mitch has the authority to block or delay a markup by not scheduling one, which has effectively stalled bills like the SAVE Act despite pressure from House Republicans and Senate co-sponsors. His opposition is being singalled via statements from "his office" and op-ed articles about "federal overreach." Is McConnell even calling the shots anymore? Or is his staff (David Popp?) or is Thune's crew ghost-running his office to protect the swamp? DO YOU THINK @LeaderJohnThune IS IN ON THE BLOCKAGE OF THE SAVE AMERICA ACT? (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Mitch McConnell confirmed he is voting “No” on the SAVE ACT. Mitch McConnell is 83 years old and is so cognitively impaired he couldn’t even answer if he’s running for reelection in 2026. You have to see this to believe it. These people are everything wrong with America. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
• Gold 5,009.4 USD/t oz. +.23%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.90 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.12 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.1 -1.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.07% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.30% -5.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.8 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.33%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Escalating US/Iran War Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Financial/Airline Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.1 +1.0%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .19 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.12 -4.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.8 +1.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 129.1 +1.5%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.4 +7.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.0 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.1 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(416 of 500 reporting) +12.3% +.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 319.49 +.24:  Growth Rate +18.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.4 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.48% +8.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 505.67 +.44: Growth Rate +23.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.4 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 +6.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 60.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 166.9 -.7% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.5% -.8 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.0% -60.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.08% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.50 +6.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 78.5% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 51.5%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -520 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +51 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -4.1% 2) Computer Services -2.5% 3) Gambling -2.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BNL, BXSL, ARCC, FSK, MMYT, WING, MAIN, TSLX, CPA, MSGS, OTF, LBTYA, CVI, LMND, WES, LBTYK, ALGM, APO, BX, HCKT, YETI, GTX, MDGL, BKNG, OWL, FVRR, HLNE, BKD, TPG, LOPE, CVNA, VC, POOL, TCMD, W, MD, CORT, JACK, EPAM, CAR and KLAR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PBF 2) CORT 3) KLAR 4) BTDR 5) AKAM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EPAM 2) KLAR 3) CAR 4) MD 5) OWL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) SMH 3) GDXJ 4) ARKK 5) GDX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +2.4% 2) Defense +1.8% 3) Ag +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RELY, FJET, HLF, LPTH, BAND, NP, NICE, ULS, OMC, COLD, DE, ETSY, AVTX, OII, TPL, OXY, FIG, KOD, UPBD, WH, TS, AG, SMCI, SSRM, PWR, KTOS, IDYA, VERX, KRMN, VIST, GOOD, INSM, RCAT, TEM, STOK, ATEX, NBIS, ESI, FLR, COKE, SII, XP, ECO, MTDR, EBAY, XPRO, SO, HSHP, INMD, DEC, FELE, AMN, CF, LFUS, SNDK, FSM, MAC, LINC, VET, CNH, PVLA, ATI and DASH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FF 2) GSK 3) PBR/A 4) GLBE 5) BBWI 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DE 2) HLF 3) CDNL 4) NICE 5) OMC

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) PBPH 2) PBOG 3) EUAD 4) PBEU 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume