BETWEEN THE HEDGES: April 2019

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:22 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.25 +.25 basis point.

China Sovereign CDS 41.75 +.5 basis point.

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.63 +.03%.

S&P 500 futures +.24%.

NASDAQ 100 futures +.58%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(AAWW)/.85
(ADP)/1.69
(CLX)/1.48
(CME)/1.60
(CVS)/1.51
(EL)/1.30
(HLT)/.76
(HUM)/4.30
(IDXX)/1.05
(JCI)/.30
(LLL)/2.47
(TAP)/.58
(BTU)/.56
(PBI)/.21
(RCL)/1.11
(SGMS)/-.05
(SMG)/3.43
(SEE)/.56
(SO)/.72
(S)/-.01
(STRA)/1.43
(UTHR)/2.61
(YUM)/.82

After the Close:

(ALL)/2.32
(CAR)/-1.00
(BLUE)/-2.83
(CZR)/-.19
(CF)/.33
(CAKE)/.60
(CRUS)/.12
(ESV)/-1.30
(STAY)/.15
(HCP)/.43
(H)/.29
(KHC)/.61
(CLI)/.41
(MET)/1.27
(OI)/53
(PPC)/.34
(PRU)/3.15
(PSA)/2.52
(QCOM)/.71
(RGLD)/.44
(SQ)/.08
(WMB)/.22
(XPO)/.41

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

The ADP Employment Change for April is estimated to rise to 180K versus 129K in March.

10:00 am EST

ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 54.3 in March.
ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to rise to 55.0 versus 54.3 in March.
Construction Spending MoM for March is estimated unch. versus a +1.0% gain in February.

2:00 pm EST

The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 2.25-2.5%.

Afternoon

Wards Total Vehicle Sales are estimated to fall to 17.0M versus 17.5 in March.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Economic Projections/Press Conference, weekly EIA energy inventory data and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, China Trade Deal Hopes, Technical Buying, Utility/Transport Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:18 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Lower

Sector Performance: Mixed

Volume: Around Average

Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 13.06 -.38%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.78 +.03%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.08 -.62%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.68 +1.7%

ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -29.0%

Total Put/Call 1.01 +18.8%

NYSE Arms 1.12 -14.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.68 +.06%

America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 453.0 +.42%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.53 -.74%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 254.0 -4.25 basis points

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.30 +.20%

Emerging Market CDS Index 191.56 +.03%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.04 +.02%

2-Year Swap Spread 11.25 +.5 basis point

TED Spread 16.25 -1.5 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.62 +.17%
3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% unch.

Yield Curve 23.75 unch.

China Iron Ore Spot 92.50 USD/Metric Tonne +.49%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -58.70 -1.6 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.10 +13.3 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.2 -6.9 points

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 -2.0 basis points
23.3% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 31.6% chance of cut at July 31st meeting

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +132 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs

Disclosed Trades: None

Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:46 PM

Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Gaming -2.6% 2) Oil Service -2.5% 3) Coal -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

PETQ, AUDC, TREX, CGNX, LOGI, TXRH, GOOG, GHL, CRTO, TIGR, GLW, INST, MNK, MMYT, VIVO, MKSI, CVLT, DBD, THC, AOS, LEG, MGM, ZBRA, HQY, CHGG, INST and MCRN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) AET 2) RSX 3) LL 4) MDLZ 5) MGM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) MNK 2) GHL 3) CGNX 4) TREX 5) LYFT

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:23 PM

Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Disk Drives +1.5% 2) Airlines +1.3% 3) Utilities +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

PI, WAGE, GAIA, GTHX, SANM, LOVE, SHOP, VRNS, SOHU, NXPI, GDI, MUSA, YUMA, ZYNE, FDP, IR, WWD, BRKS, CVX, ETH, PHG, LDOS, STX, FIS, IPGP, GE and LH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) LQD 2) FTR 3) TAP 4) GOOG 5) GLW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) WAGE 2) LH 3) PFE 4) GE 5) MLM

Charts:

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 12:39 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running +3.6% Below 100-Day Average
8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
46.9% of Issues Advancing, 50.3% Declining
146 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
59.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 51.7%
Vix 13.3 +1.3%
Total Put/Call 1.07 +25.9%
TRIN/Arms 1.15 -12.2%

Monday, April 29, 2019

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:48 PM